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$BTC 2026年BTC整体判断：先抑后稳，震荡修复；上半年延续回调寻底，下半年或随流动性与合规进展逐步企稳回升。

一、核心驱动与现状

• 减半周期：2024年5月第四次减半，2025-2026年处于减半后上升周期中期，2025年10月创12.6万美元历史新高，2026年2月初最低至5.99万美元，最大回撤超52%。

• 宏观与流动性：美联储政策是关键。2026年1月鹰派候选人提名引发大跌，高利率环境压制风险资产，杠杆出清放大波动。

• 机构与合规：美国现货ETF资金2026年初净流入12亿美元，但2025年11月-2026年1月累计流出超120亿美元，多空拉锯明显。欧盟MiCA、日本法规落地或带来增量资金。

• 技术与情绪：关键支撑6万美元，跌破或下探5.5-5.8万美元；恐惧贪婪指数处于极度恐惧区间，去杠杆持续。

二、涨跌节奏与关键位

• 上半年（1-6月）：震荡探底，核心区间5.5-6.5万美元；6万美元为生死线，失守则进一步下探；美联储3月FOMC、ETF资金流向、矿机关机情况是关键触发点。

• 下半年（7-12月）：若流动性改善、监管落地、机构回流，或企稳回升至7-9万美元；阻力位6.5-6.8万美元、7.5万美元、8.5万美元。

三、看多与看空因素

• 看多：减半后供给收缩、ETF长期配置需求、合规扩容、机构重新流入、链上基本面健康。

• 看空：流动性收紧、监管不确定、杠杆风险未出清、情绪低迷、宏观经济恶化。

四、操作建议

• 短期观望为主，分批布局需等6万美元站稳、ETF资金回流、去杠杆完成等信号。

• 中长期逢低配置，控制仓位，关注监管与流动性拐点。

需要我基于以上分析，给出分3档风险偏好的2026年BTC定投/分批建仓方案（每档含入场区间、加仓条件、止损位和目标位）吗

BTC

KO123

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$BTC 2026 BTC Overall Judgment: Initially suppressed, then stable, with fluctuations for correction; the first half of the year will continue to seek a bottom with adjustments, while the second half may gradually stabilize and rise along with liquidity and regulatory progress. 1. Core Drivers and Current Situation • Halving Cycle: The fourth halving in May 2024, and from 2025 to 2026, will be in the mid-term of the rising cycle post-halving, with a historical high of $126,000 in October 2025, dropping to a low of $59,900 in early February 2026, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 52%. • Macro and Liquidity: Federal Reserve policy is key. The nomination of a hawkish candidate in January 2026 triggered a significant drop, and the high-interest rate environment suppresses risk assets, amplifying volatility through deleveraging. • Institutions and Compliance: U.S. spot ETF funds had a net inflow of $1.2 billion in early 2026, but cumulative outflows exceeded $12 billion from November 2025 to January 2026, showing clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The EU MiCA and Japanese regulations may bring incremental funds. • Technology and Sentiment: Key support at $60,000; if breached, it may test $55,000-$58,000; the Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme fear range, with deleveraging continuing. 2. Fluctuation Rhythm and Key Levels • First Half of the Year (January to June): Fluctuating to find a bottom, core range between $55,000 and $65,000; $60,000 is the lifeline; if breached, further declines are possible; the Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting, ETF fund flows, and mining machine shutdowns are key triggers. • Second Half of the Year (July to December): If liquidity improves, regulations are implemented, and institutions return, it may stabilize and rise to $70,000-$90,000; resistance levels at $65,000-$68,000, $75,000, and $85,000. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors • Bullish: Supply contraction post-halving, long-term allocation demand for ETFs, compliance expansion, institutional reinvestment, and healthy on-chain fundamentals. • Bearish: Tightening liquidity, regulatory uncertainty, unresolved leverage risks, low sentiment, and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions. 4. Operational Suggestions • Mainly observe in the short term, phased layout requires waiting for $60,000 to stabilize, ETF fund inflows, and completion of deleveraging signals. • For the medium to long term, allocate at lows, control positions, and pay attention to regulatory and liquidity inflection points. Based on the above analysis, I need to provide a three-tiered risk preference plan for BTC dollar-cost averaging/batch building for 2026 (each tier includes entry range, additional purchase conditions, stop-loss level, and target level).

$BTC
2026 BTC Overall Judgment: Initially suppressed, then stable, with fluctuations for correction; the first half of the year will continue to seek a bottom with adjustments, while the second half may gradually stabilize and rise along with liquidity and regulatory progress.

1. Core Drivers and Current Situation

• Halving Cycle: The fourth halving in May 2024, and from 2025 to 2026, will be in the mid-term of the rising cycle post-halving, with a historical high of $126,000 in October 2025, dropping to a low of $59,900 in early February 2026, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 52%.

• Macro and Liquidity: Federal Reserve policy is key. The nomination of a hawkish candidate in January 2026 triggered a significant drop, and the high-interest rate environment suppresses risk assets, amplifying volatility through deleveraging.

• Institutions and Compliance: U.S. spot ETF funds had a net inflow of $1.2 billion in early 2026, but cumulative outflows exceeded $12 billion from November 2025 to January 2026, showing clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The EU MiCA and Japanese regulations may bring incremental funds.

• Technology and Sentiment: Key support at $60,000; if breached, it may test $55,000-$58,000; the Fear and Greed Index is in the extreme fear range, with deleveraging continuing.

2. Fluctuation Rhythm and Key Levels

• First Half of the Year (January to June): Fluctuating to find a bottom, core range between $55,000 and $65,000; $60,000 is the lifeline; if breached, further declines are possible; the Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting, ETF fund flows, and mining machine shutdowns are key triggers.

• Second Half of the Year (July to December): If liquidity improves, regulations are implemented, and institutions return, it may stabilize and rise to $70,000-$90,000; resistance levels at $65,000-$68,000, $75,000, and $85,000.

3. Bullish and Bearish Factors

• Bullish: Supply contraction post-halving, long-term allocation demand for ETFs, compliance expansion, institutional reinvestment, and healthy on-chain fundamentals.

• Bearish: Tightening liquidity, regulatory uncertainty, unresolved leverage risks, low sentiment, and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions.

4. Operational Suggestions

• Mainly observe in the short term, phased layout requires waiting for $60,000 to stabilize, ETF fund inflows, and completion of deleveraging signals.

• For the medium to long term, allocate at lows, control positions, and pay attention to regulatory and liquidity inflection points.

Based on the above analysis, I need to provide a three-tiered risk preference plan for BTC dollar-cost averaging/batch building for 2026 (each tier includes entry range, additional purchase conditions, stop-loss level, and target level).

BTC