Kripto Raporu

Crypto Report | October 20, 2026 Bitcoin recovered to the $83,000 range after falling as low as $81,400 during the day. Price action was influenced by selling pressure in Asian chip stocks, rising demand for downside protection in the options market, and weakening overall risk appetite. However, strong net inflows into U.S. spot $BTC ETFs showed that spot demand has not disappeared entirely. Key highlights: ▪️ U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $526.6 million. Most of the day's inflows came from BlackRock's IBIT. ▪️ JPMorgan Asset Management forecast that Bitcoin could outperform U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold over the next 10 years, delivering annual returns of 10%. ▪️ Switzerland's FINMA approved the first retail-focused spot Bitcoin ETF structure to invest directly in Bitcoin. ▪️ Michael Saylor said Bitcoin would return to levels above $100,000; however, in the short term, the market continues to focus more on macroeconomic flows than on technical confirmation. Today's market message can be read as follows: although ETF flows are supportive, macroeconomic sensitivity and risk appetite continue to drive short-term price action.

Crypto Report | October 19, 2026 Bitcoin started the week at around $82,000, while the market looks for direction in the short term within the $81,000–$83,000 range. Key highlights: ▪️ JPMorgan made JPM Coin, which represents dollar deposits, available on the Ethereum mainnet. ▪️ Strive purchased 1,223 BTC for approximately $100 million. ▪️ Strategy made a new purchase of 267 BTC. ▪️ BitMine purchased another 12,535 $ETH. ▪️ China’s economy grew 4.5% year over year in the third quarter, beating expectations. Canada’s annual inflation rate came in at 3.1%, slightly below expectations. ▪️ Monday’s U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows are not yet finalized. A return to positive flows today, combined with a price breakout, could provide more meaningful confirmation of demand for the rest of the week.

This Week’s Economic Calendar Summary Macroeconomic data was the main driver of price action in global markets this week. U.S. inflation came in above expectations, while producer inflation also remained strong. In addition, resilient retail sales showed that an economic slowdown has yet to become clear. In the energy market, Brent crude rising as high as $110 heightened concerns that inflationary pressures may not ease anytime soon. This flow of data strengthened expectations that the Fed could keep policy tight for longer, putting pressure on crypto assets. $BTC

Crypto Report | October 14, 2026 Crypto market volatility increased after U.S. September inflation data came in above expectations. U.S. annual CPI was reported at 3.7%, above the expected 3.6%. The data once again strengthened expectations of a hawkish Fed stance on monetary policy. Following the announcement, expectations of interest rate hikes rose in the markets, while $BTC came under brief pressure and fell below $83,000. The return of positive net flows into spot crypto ETFs the previous day was one factor that helped limit a deeper sell-off. 👇 Top headlines: ▪️ U.S. annual CPI came in above expectations at 3.7% ▪️ Bitcoin briefly fell below $83,000 after the data ▪️ Spot ETFs saw positive net flows the previous day ▪️ Williams’s 2027 remarks supported an intraday recovery

Crypto Report | October 13, 2026 The standout development in crypto markets today was Bitcoin’s recovery above $83,000 despite weak ETF flows and tight macroeconomic conditions. 👇 Key developments: ▪️ On October 12, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $65.4 million, while spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net outflows of $85.4 million. This suggests institutional demand remains weak in the short term. ▪️ The 30-year mortgage rate in the U.S. reached 7.40%, its highest level since November 2023. This indicates that financial conditions remain tight. ▪️ Brent crude is trading around $106, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is near 102.5. High energy prices and a strong dollar are among the main macro factors that could put pressure on risk assets, including crypto. ▪️ South Korean regulators blocked access to 27 crypto exchanges operating without registration. The move is expected to affect Korea-based retail flows and some altcoin trading volumes more than the global $BTC market. ▪️ According to its official announcement, Strategy purchased 250 BTC. The company said it used approximately $21 million in proceeds from share sales, along with additional cash, to fund the purchase.

Crypto Report | October 10, 2026 The main theme in the crypto market today was discussion of how market structure has changed since the October 10, 2025 flash crash, a year ago. 👇 Top headlines: ▪️ Order book liquidity in Bitcoin and Ethereum markets has recovered significantly compared with the major crash in 2025. However, market depth for altcoins continues to weaken. ▪️ Although spot trading volume has recovered, it remains well below the levels seen during crash week. This suggests that the market is strengthening selectively rather than broadly. ▪️ XRP Ledger developers patched a serious software vulnerability that could theoretically have enabled $XRP to be created out of thin air, before it was exploited maliciously. There is no verified evidence that the vulnerability was used on-chain. ▪️ Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has fallen significantly compared with 2018, but the number of extreme daily price deviations recorded in 2026 has already surpassed the total for all of 2018. This shows that sudden price shocks continue despite seemingly calmer market conditions.

Crypto Report | October 9, 2026 Bitcoin recovered to the $83K area after dipping to around $80.4K yesterday. The rebound appears to be driven by a partial easing of geopolitical risks. Oil prices fell after U.S. President Donald Trump said no attack on Iran was planned before the elections, while risk appetite also recovered in U.S. equity markets. 👇 Key highlights: ▪️ U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $244 million in net outflows on Thursday. Combined with Wednesday’s roughly $485 million in outflows, total outflows over the two days came to about $729 million. ▪️ XRP ETFs were the only crypto ETF group to remain positive, with approximately $8 million in net inflows. About $73M flowed out of $ETH funds, $3M from SOL funds, and $19M from the ZEC fund. ▪️ The U.S. government moved 12,267 BTC (~$1.01 billion), seized in connection with the 2016 Bitfinex hack, to new, unlabeled wallets. Since the transfers were not made to an exchange, there is currently no evidence of a direct sale. ▪️ $BTC rebounded yesterday from the $80.4K area, near its 50-day moving average. In the short term, holding above $83K could support a recovery toward the $84.4K–$85K area. A renewed drop below $82K could bring $81K and $80.4K back into focus.

Friday, October 9 — What Does the Economic Calendar Say? Today, markets focused particularly on Canadian employment data and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment data. 🇨🇦 Canadian Employment Data ▪️ Employment change: -68K ▪️ Previous month: -42K ▪️ Unemployment rate: 6.5% Employment in Canada declined for the second consecutive month, with a total of approximately 110K jobs lost over the past two months. The weak labor market is strengthening expectations that the Bank of Canada may take a more cautious approach to further rate hikes. 🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment ▪️ Actual: 46.3 ▪️ Previous: 48.1 ▪️ Forecast: approximately 47.8 U.S. consumer sentiment came in below expectations. Why does it matter? Weak consumer sentiment -> negative for economic growth. However, rising inflation expectations could support the possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer. That’s why today’s data isn’t entirely positive for $BTC: growth is weakening, but inflation concerns remain alive. For Bitcoin, keep a close eye today on the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, oil, and the $82K–83K price zone.

AI–Wallet Security Warning from an Ethereum Researcher Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake warned that rapid advances in artificial intelligence and mathematics could, in the future and before quantum computers, threaten the elliptic-curve signatures used in Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets. $ETH Drake said that in the worst-case scenario, the risk could materialize on a scale of “not years, but months,” while no practical attack has yet been demonstrated that can break Bitcoin or Ethereum private keys. It’s recommended that large investors and institutions are already preparing to transition to new addresses, key rotation, and hash-based signature systems.

Crypto Report | October 8, 2026 Bitcoin falls back to the $81K level and has lost one of the key supports of the technical structure from the past few weeks. 👇 Three main factors stand out in the selling pressure: ▪️ Technically, $BTC has moved below the $83K and $82K zones. The price is currently approaching the previous local highs around the $80–81K range and the 50-day moving average. In the short term, the $80–81K zone is being monitored as critical support. If a rebound comes from this level, reclaiming the $82–83K range could be the first technical recovery signal. A sustained move below the 50-day moving average around $79.5K may cause the selling pressure to expand toward the $76–78K zone. ▪️ A net outflow of $487.1 million occurred from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. This was the largest daily outflow since June 25. BlackRock IBIT recorded net outflows of about $207.7M, Fidelity FBTC $105.2M, and ARKB $101.7M. ▪️ While Brent crude rises to around $104, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is trading near 5.30%. Rising energy prices keep inflation expectations alive, while weighing on global risk appetite.

Crypto Report | October 7, 2026 As Bitcoin retreats to the $83K range, liquidations of leveraged positions are accelerating across the crypto market. The sell-off is accompanied by rising oil prices, higher U.S. Treasury yields, and a strengthening dollar. 👇 Key highlights: ▪️ $BTC retreated to around $83K following selling pressure from the $87K range. ▪️ 24-hour liquidations in the crypto market reached approximately $550 million; most of the liquidations came from long positions. ▪️ The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.3%, while Brent crude is above $100 and the U.S. Dollar Index is strengthening. ▪️ The FOMC minutes from the Fed’s September meeting will be released today at 21:00 TRT. The market is pricing in an unchanged interest rate at the October meeting as the base case. ▪️ BitMine announced that it will stop making regular Ether purchases once it reaches 5% of the $ETH supply. The company holds more than 6 million ETH.

📰 Crypto Report | October 6, 2026 With Bitcoin trading around $86K, new records in U.S. stocks, rising relative strength among altcoins, and ETF outflows were the day's key market signals. 👇 Top stories: ▪️ Bitcoin closed the week at around $86,570, its highest level in eight months. However, the $87K area has met strong selling pressure for the third time in recent days. ▪️ The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 73, entering the “Greed” zone. ▪️ The CryptoRank Altcoin Season Index reached 65/100, nearing its 2026 peak of 66. However, differing index methodologies have yet to confirm a broad altseason. ▪️ On October 5, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of -$89.8M, while spot Ether ETFs saw -$50.8M in net outflows. ▪️ The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new all-time highs. Falling oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields supported risk appetite. ▪️ Michael Burry warned of another market downturn, arguing that the U.S. stock market is in a “denial phase” similar to 2000 and 2008. This is Burry's market view, not a realized or confirmed crash signal. (Investor's Business Daily) ▪️ $BTC is approximately 32% below its October 6, 2025 ATH of over $126K, exactly one year later. In previous Bitcoin cycles, losses a year later were around 70–82%.

📰 Crypto Report | October 5, 2026 Bitcoin pulled back to the $85K range after approaching around $87K over the weekend. Meanwhile, there were significant developments in U.S. crypto regulation from the CFTC and SEC. 👇 Top stories: ▪️ The CFTC is formally proposing its first crypto market regulations. Regulation CTX and Regulation CAM aim to create a federal regulatory framework for crypto asset trading on platforms registered with the CFTC. CFTC Chair Michael Selig described this as the “beginning” of the rulemaking process. ▪️ The SEC approved a rule change allowing Cboe BZX to list 3x $BTC and 3x $ETH products. The products will target daily 3x performance primarily through futures rather than spot BTC/ETH, and have not yet begun trading. ▪️ BTC pulled back to the $85K range after reaching around $87K. QCP Capital says acceptance above $87.2K is needed to confirm the next leg higher. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also rose again to around 5.33%. ▪️ Saudi Aramco’s CEO said global oil inventories have fallen sharply. Amin Nasser said it could take up to two years to replenish them, even if the Strait of Hormuz were fully reopened. Brent crude is trading above $100. ▪️ The U.S. ISM Services PMI fell from 55.4 to 54.9, while the Prices Paid index rose from 72.6 to 74. The data points to continued inflationary pressure in the services sector.

📰 Crypto Report | 4 October 2026 While Bitcoin spent the weekend around the $85K level, in a market with limited news flow on Sunday, developments in regulation and the institutional crypto space took the lead. Key highlights: ▪️ Bitcoin reclaimed $85K. After Friday’s $87K test and the subsequent sharp pullback, $BTC is once again testing the critical resistance zone over the weekend. ▪️ Despite the Senate setback in the CLARITY Act, crypto M&A activity remains strong. In the first half of 2026, the disclosed deal value reached a record $9.7 billion and increased by 44% year-on-year. ▪️ The SEC approved a rule change related to Cboe BZX listing 3x Bitcoin and 3x Ether products. Products based on futures are set to target a daily 3x benchmark return; the launch date has not yet been announced. ▪️ USDT is planned to be converted into Bitcoin. Utexo, supported by Tether, plans to bring USDT to Bitcoin via RGB this month, and to support native BTC-USDT swaps and BTC-collateralized loans.

📰 Crypto Report | October 3, 2026 After testing the $87K area on Friday, Bitcoin entered the weekend at around $84.8K. Weak U.S. employment data sharply reduced expectations that the Fed will raise rates again in October, while a slowdown in ETF demand is drawing attention. Key highlights: ▪️ After only 29K jobs were created in September, the likelihood of an October Fed rate hike fell to roughly the 14–17% range. ▪️ Spot $BTC BTC ETFs are closing the week for now with net inflows of about +$82.9M. Compared with the previous week’s roughly +$2.39B inflows, demand has slowed significantly; the BlackRock data from Friday is not yet complete. ▪️ Former SEC Chair and current National Intelligence Director Jay Clayton is expected to become the White House’s new AI czar. The White House has not officially confirmed the appointment yet. Clayton’s past leadership of the SEC’s crypto enforcement efforts has brought the topic back into focus in the industry. ▪️ Crypto job postings rose from 382 in July to 1,241 in September. Over the same period, the number of applications fell from 25,700 to below 20K. ▪️ Citi has a 12-month price target of $113K for Bitcoin. From the current ~$84.8K level, the target is about 33% higher.

📅 Crypto Report | Economic Calendar (5–9 October) Next week is calmer than last week; however, ISM Services + FOMC minutes + Michigan consumer sentiment will be important for Fed expectations. FOMC minutes will especially reveal the debate behind the Fed’s 25 bp rate hike in September. 5 October Monday 🇯🇵 08:00 - Japan Consumer Confidence Previous: 35.5 | Forecast: 35.3 🇺🇸 17:00 - ISM Services PMI 🔥 Previous: 55.4 | Forecast: 55.7 Keeping the services sector strong is positive for economic resilience; however, if price pressures remain high, it could again support the likelihood of the Fed raising rates. 6 October Tuesday 🇨🇦 17:00 - Canada Ivey PMI Previous: 64.3 | Forecast: 65.2 7 October Wednesday 🇺🇸 21:00 - FOMC Meeting Minutes 🚨 The most important development of the week. The Fed had raised rates by 25 bp in September. The minutes will look at how hawkish or cautious members were regarding inflation, the labor market, and new rate hikes. The market is currently not pricing the October hike as the base case. 8 October Thursday 🇩🇪 09:00 - Germany Trade Balance Previous: €21.3B | Forecast: €19.2B 9 October Friday 🇨🇦 15:30 - Canada Unemployment Rate Previous: 6.4% | Forecast: 6.5% 🇺🇸 17:00 - Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) 🔥 Previous: 48.1 | Forecast: 48.1 Here, it’s important to look not only at consumer sentiment, but also at the inflation expectations in the Michigan survey. If expectations rise again for the Fed, it could create pressure on $BTC via bond yields. Next week’s U.S. agenda highlights ISM Services, FOMC minutes, and Michigan data. Last week, Core PCE + JOLTS + NFP told us that pressure for the Fed to raise rates again in October has eased. The question next week will be: Is the Fed as comfortable as the market? 📌 Don’t forget to save it. We’ll follow the week’s data together in the Crypto Report.

📰 Crypto Report | October 2, 2026 Bitcoin gave back a significant portion of its gains later in the day as it neared the $87K area following weak U.S. employment data. Key headlines: ▪️ The U.S. economy created only 29K new jobs in September; expectations were about 90K. Unemployment rose to 4.2% and monthly wage growth held at 0.1%. July and August figures were revised down by a total of 60K. Bureau of Labor Statistics ▪️ After the weak jobs report, expectations for a Fed rate hike in October dropped sharply. On Polymarket, the probability fell to around 18% after the data, and on CME FedWatch it dropped to about 13.8% at one point. MarketWatch ▪️ As BTC broke through sell orders around $85K and approached the $87K area, it was reported that about $110M in short positions were liquidated within 10 minutes during the rapid surge. The price then pulled back again to the $84K–$85K range. Cointelegraph ▪️ SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the new crypto custody proposal is part of a broader regulatory agenda and that other crypto regulatory proposals will follow. SEC ▪️ G7 countries agreed to release a total of 100M barrels of diesel and crude oil reserves to ease supply pressure in the energy markets. Reuters ▪️ Citi’s 12-month $113K price target for Bitcoin remains in place. Reaching the target from the current level of around $84.5K would require an increase of roughly 34%.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the new crypto custody proposal is part of a broader regulatory program and that other crypto regulatory proposals will follow.

The data coming in on the last working day of the week is very important for $BTC and altcoins: - The U.S. economy created only 29K new jobs in September; expectations were about 90K. - Unemployment rose to 4.2% while monthly wage growth remained at 0.1%. July and August figures were revised down by a total of 60K. - After the weak jobs report, expectations for a Fed rate hike in October fell sharply. On Polymarket, the probability dropped to around 18% after the data, while on the CME FedWatch it fell to about 13.8% at one point.

📰 Crypto Report | October 1, 2026 After Bitcoin closed the third quarter of the year strongly, it began the new quarter moving sideways at around the $84K level. The market’s focus shifted to Friday’s U.S. employment report. Highlights: ▪️ U.S. Core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year in August, coming in below expectations. After the data, BTC briefly moved above $85.5K, but the rally did not prove sustainable. ▪️ Expectations for an additional rate hike at the Fed’s October meeting have noticeably declined. CME pricing today indicates roughly a 37% chance of a rate hike; the market’s main scenario is holding rates steady. ▪️ U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of -$139.2M on September 30. The previous day saw a +$66.2M inflow. Source: Farside Investors ▪️ The latest expectation for the NFP to be released on Friday is +90K jobs and 4.1% unemployment. The data could again change market pricing for the Fed’s October decision. ▪️ Citi raised its 12-month price target for Bitcoin from $82K to $113K; the bank cited ETF inflows and macro conditions among its reasons. ▪️ Bitcoin gained 42.7% in Q3, completing its strongest quarter since Q1 2024. ETH rose 70.8% in the same period.