Kripto Raporu

Crypto Report | July 25, Saturday Bitcoin started the weekend weakly. 👇 Key highlights: • BTC is trading in the $64K region. • Negative ETF flows on Thursday and Friday signaled a risk-off move ahead of the Fed week. • Whale activity is drawing attention, with positioning to the upside targeting 70K. • However, this scenario can’t be confirmed unless spot prices regain the key resistance levels. • Charles Schwab called on the US Senate to pass the Crypto Clarity Act. • Corporate support for the Clarity Act is increasing, but political uncertainty remains. • Activity in tokenized stocks and RWA is growing on the Robinhood Chain. Outlook: ETF outflows and staying below 64.2K are creating pressure in the near term. Corporate regulation and RWA news are positive for the long term; however, today the market is pricing in more ETF demand and the risk around Fed week. $BTC

Crypto Report | US Data & the Fed Week Today, three important pieces of data were followed from the US: • The US Manufacturing PMI was released at 53.8. It came in below expectations, but since it is still above 50, growth in the manufacturing sector is continuing. • The US Services PMI was released at 53.6. It came in above expectations and rose to the strongest level in eight months. • US New Home Sales data signaled a recovery. The net figure has not yet been fully verified in available sources. Crypto impact: A strong services PMI shows that the US economy is still resilient. This could support the likelihood that the Fed keeps interest rates high or even raises them. Even though the manufacturing side was below expectations, it is not in contraction territory. In addition, S&P Global stated that supply delays and price pressures have increased due to the Middle East war. This brings up oil and inflation risks again. Fed meeting: Decision date: 28–29 July 2026: July 29, Wednesday Main risk for crypto: The likelihood of a rate hike has risen significantly over the past week. As a result, the market is pricing risky assets more cautiously.

Crypto Report | July 24 In the crypto market today, selling pressure has come to the fore. 👇 Key headlines: • After a rise, Bitcoin pulled back. $BTC • Ether and Dogecoin led the decline. $ETH - $DOGE • This drop is seen more as consolidation ahead of Fed week than a major breakdown. • Weakness in US tech earnings and AI stocks pressured risk appetite. • The Clarity Act’s ethical clause discussions are making the process harder. • Democrats’ opposition to the current draft weakened regulatory optimism. • US Services PMI came in stronger than expected. • Manufacturing PMI stayed in the growth zone but was reported below expectations. • There are signs of a rebound in new home sales. • Expectations for a rate hike ahead of the Fed’s July 28–29 meeting have increased.

Crypto Report | July 21 Bitcoin rose above $66,000, experiencing one of the strongest rebounds of the last few weeks. 👇 Highlights: • Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for the 5th consecutive day. This streak has not been seen since April. • Total 5-day inflows were approximately $727 million. • The likelihood of the Clarity Act increased from 32% to 43% on Polymarket. The rise came after unverified reports that Trump had reached an agreement on the ethics clause. • The BTC rally was supported by ETF demand, regulatory optimism, and a rebound in AI/chip stocks. • Goldman Sachs warned that if the shutdown in the Strait of Hormuz continues, Brent crude could rise above $120. • Strategy did not change its $BTC holdings; it slowed the purchase pace of $ETH for Bitmine. Overall outlook: The market is positive in the short term. However, oil prices, expectations for the Fed, and uncertainty in the Clarity Act process are being tracked as the main risks.

CRYPTO REPORT | June 21 Bitcoin started the week on a positive note. 👇 Key highlights: • $BTC After recovering over the weekend, it retested the $65k area. • Movement above the 50 EMA on the daily chart supported the short-term technical outlook. • Inflows are once again being seen in spot Bitcoin ETFs; however, inflows over the past two weeks are still limited and have not yet fully offset the earlier large outflows. • Strategy did not change its BTC holdings. The company increased its cash reserves to $3.225 billion. • It slowed the pace of ETH purchases at Bitmine and redirected capital toward share buybacks. • Uncertainty continues on the Clarity Act front. Polymarket expectations remain low. • A second/third reading process is being followed for Russia’s crypto regulatory framework; it has not yet been confirmed as a final law. • The U.S.-Iran tensions and oil prices remain the main macro risk for the week. Overall outlook: The market is more positive than last week. However, strengthening ETF inflows, stabilization in oil prices, and no disruption to Fed expectations are needed. In the short term, risk appetite is increasing; but institutional demand has not yet given a strong reversal signal.

This Week’s Economic Calendar — Save it and follow the week. (July 20–26) 👇 This week, there are no major inflation releases in the U.S. like CPI/PPI. The market will instead focus more on the central bank’s tone, labor data, PMI, and the oil side. July 20, Monday • Canada CPI will be watched for the global inflation outlook. July 22, Wednesday • UK CPI is important for European inflation and interest rate expectations. • U.S. Crude Oil Inventories — this week’s oil data will be more critical due to the Hormuz risk. July 23, Thursday • ECB Interest Rate Decision — expectations are for rates to remain unchanged. More than the decision itself, Lagarde’s tone will matter. • U.S. Unemployment Claims — one of the week’s key U.S. data points in terms of Fed expectations. July 24, Friday • U.S. Manufacturing PMI • U.S. Services PMI • U.S. New Home Sales The main headlines for crypto this week will be: Fed expectations, oil prices, global growth signals, and ETF demand.

Crypto Report | 19 July Bitcoin is spending the weekend in positive territory👇 Key highlights: • $BTC has rebounded after selling pressure during the week. • On Friday, spot Bitcoin ETFs closed higher. • In the options market, upward positioning toward the end of the month is drawing attention. • According to CoinDesk, some large trades include call spread structures targeting the $72k zone, timed around the Fed meeting period. • This structure is not a price target; it shows that the market is pricing in the possibility of upside volatility. • The U.S. debt reaching record levels continues to be one of the narratives supporting Bitcoin’s “debasement trade” in the long run. • Meanwhile, weakening expectations for the Crypto Clarity Act creates short-term uncertainty on the regulatory front. Overall picture: A return to positive ETF inflows and bullish positioning in the options market are supportive for Bitcoin. However, as the week of the Fed approaches, macro data, oil prices, and regulatory headlines remain key risk factors to watch. The next Fed meeting will be on July 29.

Crypto Report - July 18 Bitcoin entered the weekend seeking balance around the $64K area. 👇 Highlights: • $BTC at the 64.2k decision level • Friday saw a +$132.3 million inflow into the BTC ETF • +$136.5 million inflow into IBIT • The likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing dropped to 32% on Polymarket. • It’s noted that US debt has reached a record level at $39.5 trillion • China’s Kimi K3 model created selling pressure in AI/chip stocks • BTC has been moving in line with risk appetite for AI in recent days.

Crypto Report - July 17: Bitcoin couldn’t maintain levels above 65k and pulled back to the 63k area. 👇 Highlights: • $BTC failed to hold the 65k rally • The 64.2k support was lost • Price fell into the 62.7k-63k support zone • $ETH dropped harder than BTC • $HYPE fell by approximately 10% • Selling in global chip/AI stocks weighed on crypto • BTC ETFs saw net positive inflows of +$79.1 million on July 16 • However, ETF inflows weren’t enough to absorb the selling pressure at 65k.

Important data for crypto in the US today will be monitored: • Retail sales indicate the strength of consumer spending. Strong data suggests the economy is still resilient and may increase the likelihood that the Fed stays restrictive. • Core retail sales show consumer sentiment excluding volatile items. If it comes in weaker than expected, it could ease pressure on the Fed. • Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index reflects activity on the industrial side. Strong data gives a durable growth message; weak data could signal an economic slowdown. • Initial jobless claims are the weekly pulse of the labor market. If claims rise, the tightening pressure on the Fed could ease.

Daily economic calendar report and its impact on crypto 👇 Today, critical macro data for crypto was released. • China GDP: 4.3% came in. China’s growth slowed. This is negative for global growth and commodities, but today the market’s main focus was US inflation data. • US PPI: -0.3% month-over-month came in. The expectation was 0.0%. There was a clear cooling in producer inflation. • Core PPI: 0.2% month-over-month came in. The expectation was 0.4%. Positive from the standpoint of inflation pressure tracked by the Fed. • BoC interest rate decision: The rate was kept unchanged at 2.25%. Neutral in terms of the global central bank tone. • US oil inventories: Dropped by 1.7 million barrels. The oil market is still at risk due to the tensions in Hormuz. If oil rises, inflation pressure could return in the future. Crypto takeaway: After CPI, PPI also came in low. This reduces the Fed’s pressure to raise rates and supports $BTC.

Crypto Report - July 15 Bitcoin surpassed $65,000 after a second positive inflation report from the US. 👇 Highlights: • US PPI came in at -0.3% month-on-month • Forecast was 0.0% • Annual PPI was below expectations at 5.5% • Core PPI came in at 0.2% month-on-month • Approximately $181 million flowed into $BTC ETFs • ETH ETFs were positive with around $58 million • BTC broke the 64.2k resistance and settled above 65k

Crypto Report | 14 July After U.S. inflation data came in below expectations, Bitcoin broke the 64.2k resistance level. 👇 Highlights: • U.S. CPI came in at 3.5% year-over-year • Previous figure was 4.2% • Inflation was reported below expectations • Pressure for the Fed to raise rates decreased • $BTC broke above the 64.2k resistance • RSI overheated in the short term • Strategy increased cash by $467 million but did not make a BTC purchase.

Crypto Report | July 13 Bitcoin slipped below $63,000 on Monday amid war and Hormuz risk. 👇 Key highlights: • $BTC was sharply rejected from the 64.2k zone • US–Iran tensions pushed oil higher • A sharp drop was reported in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz • Brent oil rose in the 3–4% range • Strategy did not trade BTC, increasing its cash reserves to $3 billion. The decline looked more like leverage unwinding and geopolitical risk selling than a major capitulation.

Economic Calendar for Next Week - Save it and follow the week. (July 13-19) 👇 This week, the most important data for the crypto market will be the US CPI. 😌 Tuesday, July 14 • US CPI MoM Forecast: -%0.1, previous: %0.5 If inflation falls on a monthly basis, it could be comforting for $BTC. • Core CPI MoM Forecast: %0.3, previous: %0.2 The most critical sub-detail of the week. If core inflation comes in above expectations, Fed pressure will increase. • US CPI YoY Previous: %4.2 Annual inflation is still high. Due to the oil/Hormuz risk, the market will be more sensitive to this data. Wednesday, July 15 • China GDP Important for global growth and risk appetite. Weak China data could weigh on commodities and risk assets. • US PPI Forecast: %0.0, previous: %1.1 If producer inflation falls, post-CPI relief could strengthen. • BoC interest rate decision Forecast: %2.25, previous: %2.25 The tone of the Bank of Canada will be monitored for global rate expectations. • US oil inventories This week will be more important than usual due to the Hormuz tension. A decline in inventories could support oil. Thursday, July 16 • US retail sales Forecast: %0.3, previous: %0.9 We’ll see whether consumers are still strong. Very strong data could create Fed pressure. • Core retail sales Forecast: -%0.1, previous: %0.8 Weak data could send a message that growth is slowing. • Jobless claims Forecast: 215K, previous: 215K If the labor market stays strong, the Fed will not ease. Friday, July 17 • Eurozone CPI Forecast: %2.8, previous: %2.8 European inflation will be watched for global rate perception. Main Message of the Week The most important data for crypto this week: US CPI. Low CPI + calm oil = positive for BTC. High CPI + rising oil = Fed pressure and negative for BTC.

Crypto Report - 12 July Bitcoin remained mostly flat around $64k despite new US attacks on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz tensions. 👇 Highlights: • $BTC around the 64.1k level • $ETH steady around $1,800 • Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed • The US says the strait is open to all ships • The market will see the main reaction to oil at the Monday opening. Have a great day!

Crypto Report - July 9 Bitcoin is trying to recover back to the $63k area after yesterday’s drop. 👇 Key highlights: • $BTC rejected around 63.2k • Approximately $85 million outflow from spot BTC ETFs • A three-day ETF inflow streak has ended. • On the same day, ETH ETFs received about $70 million in inflows. • U.S. unemployment claims came in below expectations at 215K. • Existing home sales fell 2.4% month-over-month. • Home prices hit a record high at $440,600.

Today there are three major macro headlines for crypto that could directly affect crypto prices, note: • RBNZ interest rate decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. This shows that global central banks are still cautious about inflation. • US crude oil inventories: The result has not yet been finalized as this post is being prepared. However, due to tension involving Iran, oil has already risen sharply. If inventories decline, it could support oil prices and increase fears about inflation. • FOMC minutes: The most critical headline of the week. To be released in the evening in Turkey time. The market will try to understand how serious the Fed is about further rate hikes. Crypto takeaway: Oil is rising, geopolitical risk is increasing, and central banks are still in inflation-fighting mode. This combination creates near-term pressure on $BTC.

Crypto Report | July 8 Bitcoin fell below $62K after Trump’s statement that the Iran ceasefire/MoU was “over.” 👇 Other highlighted headlines: • $BTC dropped to the 61.6K level. • Iran tensions pushed oil up 5% • Rising oil prices brought inflation and interest-rate pressure back into focus • Nasdaq futures and crypto weakened at the same time • The Reserve Bank of India maintains a near-tough stance on the crypto ban • In Japan, weak yen is increasing companies’ interest in BTC/XRP. Today, forthcoming economic expectations from the Fed will be decisive for direction.

Crypto Report | July 7 Bitcoin approached the $64k area with ETF inflows. 👇 Highlights: • Spot $BTC ETFs saw $265.69 million in inflows on Monday • $ETH ETFs came in positive with $20.66 million • IBIT alone received $209.4 million in inflows • Polymarket prices a 86% chance of seeing 65k in July • On the Fed side, expectations of rate cuts in 2026 are still weak. Momentum is upward in the short term.