Artist_Traders

BTC Macro Cycles Duration: 1064-Day Bulls & 364-Day Bears)
Bitcoin's macro cycles have long fascinated traders and analysts, often tied to the halving events that occur roughly every four years, reducing the block reward and historically sparking bull markets due to increased scarcity.
The provided chart from TradingView (Bitcoin/USDT on a 1-month timeframe from Binance) highlights a repeating pattern in Bitcoin's price action across multi-year periods:
2018–2021 bull cycle: Lasting approximately 1,064 days, featuring a strong upward trend.2021–2022 bear cycle: Around 364 days of correction.2022–2025 bull cycle: Mirroring the prior bull with 1,064 days.2025–2026 bear cycle: Projected at 364 days.2026–2029 bull cycle: Anticipated to follow suit with another 1,064 days.
This suggests a potential symmetrical 4-year cycle structure, with bull phases roughly three times longer than bears, aligned with halving-driven supply dynamics.

As of mid-February 2026, Bitcoin trades around $67,000–$68,000, showing consolidation after a peak near $126,000 in late 2025. This aligns with some cycle theories suggesting the 2025 peak marked the end of the post-2024 halving bull, transitioning into a corrective bear phase in 2026.
Historical data supports diminishing drawdowns in later cycles (e.g., ~77–85% drops in earlier bears, potentially shallower now due to institutional adoption and ETFs). However, debates persist on whether the classic 4-year cycle is "broken" or evolving, with some models projecting a 2026 low in the $55,000–$65,000 range before the next upswing toward 2029.

The cycle hypothesis remains popular but is not guaranteed—Bitcoin's maturation, regulatory shifts, and macroeconomic factors could alter patterns. Always conduct your own research; past performance does not predict future results.
What are your thoughts on this cycle projection—still holding strong, or has institutional involvement changed the game? 🚀

The chart you shared is a compelling logarithmic weekly view of Bitcoin's price (BTC/USD on Bitstamp), annotated with historical "BTC pumps" (marked as 10x, 14x, 8x), "gold tops" (red zones), and arrows suggesting liquidity outflows from gold into Bitcoin during major BTC bull runs.
This narrative posits that gold often peaks first as a safe-haven asset during uncertainty or inflation fears, after which capital rotates into higher-risk, higher-reward assets like Bitcoin, fueling its explosive parabolic moves. The idea is encapsulated in the bold claim: "THIS WILL BE THE GREATEST CAPITAL ROTATION YOU WILL EVER SEE", with gold front-running Bitcoin bull runs and the current setup signaling we're "still early."
Historical Context and Patterns
Bitcoin's long-term chart on a log scale does show massive multi-year cycles with exponential gains, often following periods of consolidation or macro shifts. Historical examples include:
2013-ish pump — Bitcoin surged dramatically after earlier volatility.2017 pump — ~14x move during the ICO boom.2020-2021 pump — ~8-10x+ rally post-COVID stimulus.
In 2020, gold hit a cycle high around $2,075/oz in August, corrected ~10-15% shortly after, while Bitcoin dipped briefly then exploded from ~$10k-12k to over $60k by early 2021 — a ~5-6x move in that window. Some analysts interpret this as capital rotation from "safe" gold to "risk-on" Bitcoin once gold's rally cooled.
However, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin is not consistently positive or leading. Recent data (2024-2026) shows periods of negative or low correlation (e.g., trailing 12-month rolling correlation around -0.28 to -0.37). Gold has outperformed Bitcoin in some stretches (e.g., gold up significantly in 2025 while Bitcoin lagged or corrected), with Bitcoin's market cap still only 3-4% of gold's ($1.3T vs. $36T+). Gold often acts as a true safe haven during risk-off events, while Bitcoin behaves more like a high-beta risk asset correlated with equities/tech stocks.
The BTC/gold ratio (ounces of gold needed to buy 1 BTC) has fluctuated, recently hitting lower levels (e.g., around 13-18 ounces), which some see as Bitcoin being "cheap" relative to gold — potentially setting up asymmetric upside if rotation occurs.
Current Market Snapshot (as of mid-February 2026)
Bitcoin price: Hovering around $66,000-$68,000 USD (down from recent highs above $100k+ in late 2025).Gold price: Around $5,000-$5,100 per ounce (near all-time highs after strong 2025 performance).Bitcoin has been volatile, with some decoupling from gold — gold holding firm as a hedge amid uncertainty, while Bitcoin faces pressure from factors like equity correlations or leverage unwinds.
Is a Massive Rotation Imminent?
The theory has merit in specific cycles (e.g., post-2020 gold top → Bitcoin surge), and some observers note lag patterns where gold leads by months before Bitcoin outperforms. If global liquidity shifts, institutional flows rotate from "digital gold" narratives back to actual scarcity plays, or risk appetite returns strongly, Bitcoin could see renewed momentum.
That said, it's speculative — not every gold peak has led to immediate Bitcoin pumps, and recent years show gold and Bitcoin diverging more than syncing. Bitcoin's path depends on broader factors: adoption, regulation, macro liquidity, ETF flows, and whether it truly captures "capital rotation" from traditional stores of value.
We are still early in Bitcoin's adoption curve relative to gold's centuries-long history, and if even a small percentage of gold's massive market cap (e.g., 5-10%) flows in, the impact could be huge given Bitcoin's smaller size. But markets are unpredictable — this could play out, or rotation might not materialize as cleanly.
These visuals illustrate BTC vs. gold overlays, ratios, and historical performance lags — similar to the patterns in your chart. What are your thoughts on the current BTC/gold ratio or any specific cycle you're eyeing?

The provided chart is a monthly timeframe (1M) Bitcoin price chart on Binance (BTC/USDT), highlighting historical cycles with annotations for key bottoms and a peak. It compares the current price action around ~$66,000 to the 2022 bear market structure, suggesting Bitcoin is "fully copying" that period. The poster predicts the final bottom in the next 45–60 days, with whales already accumulating for a chance to buy low.
Current Bitcoin Market Snapshot
As of mid-February 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $66,000–$67,000 USD, down significantly from its all-time high of approximately $126,000 (reached in late 2025). Recent 24-hour changes show declines of 1.8–3% amid broader market pressure, with trading volume remaining high.

Bitcoin's Market Cycle & Crypto Cycles Chart | Key Insights & Trends
This long-term cycle chart illustrates Bitcoin's historical performance through accumulation, growth, bubble, and crash phases, showing repeated patterns of sharp corrections followed by recoveries.

Bitcoin Cycles: A data-driven overview of halving events and price dynamic
A power law model projection for Bitcoin's price, based on historical data, suggests potential growth trajectories into 2026–2028, though current levels are below some longer-term fits.
Analyzing the Claim: Mirroring the 2022 Bear Market
The 2022 bear market saw Bitcoin drop from a peak of ~$69,000 (November 2021) to a bottom around $15,500–$16,000 (late 2022), a roughly 77% decline amid macro factors like rate hikes and crypto-specific events (e.g., FTX collapse).
The chart draws parallels:
A prior peak labeled ~$69k.A "2022 $BTC BOTTOM" at ~$19.7k.Current action showing a step-down pattern similar to post-peak consolidation.Projection of a "2026 $BTC BOTTOM" after further downside.
Recent analyses note similarities in indicators (e.g., Mayer Multiple hitting 2022 levels, profitable supply dropping to ~50% like 2022 bottoms). Some analysts have eyed potential lows near $58,000–$60,000 as structural support (e.g., 200-week moving average zone), though deeper drops to $40,000–$50,000 have been discussed in bearish repeats.
However, the market is not identical—post-2024 halving dynamics, institutional adoption (e.g., ETFs), and different macro conditions (e.g., potential policy shifts) add variables. The post's 45–60 day bottom timeline would point to a possible low in March–April 2026.
Whale Accumulation Evidence
The post claims whales are accumulating. On-chain data supports this in recent periods, with "shark" entities (100–1,000+ BTC holders) showing net positive position changes and record or near-record holdings in some cohorts during dips. Larger whales (>1,000 BTC) have demonstrated accumulation vs. retail distribution in 60-day windows.

RECORD WHALE ACCUMULATION 🐳 : r/Bitcoin
This chart highlights shark net position changes, showing recent upward accumulation spikes.

Bitcoin whale bets $2B on market bounce as smart money accumulates
Accumulation vs. distribution across cohorts, with larger holders (e.g., >10k BTC) net buying during recent price weakness.
2026 Outlook and Predictions
Predictions for Bitcoin in 2026 vary widely:
Conservative: $75,000–$150,000 range, with some centering around $110,000.Optimistic: Up to $175,000–$250,000, driven by institutional inflows and adoption.Longer-term models: Some forecast averages around $80,000–$100,000+ by year-end, assuming recovery post-correction.

Is Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Over? for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by Profit_Through_Patience — TradingView
A cycle comparison chart showing Bitcoin's performance post-halvings, with RSI and moving average signals indicating potential shifts in momentum.
The chart's bearish parallel is plausible for short-term downside risk, but historical cycles often feature deep corrections before multi-year uptrends. Accumulation by large holders during weakness has preceded recoveries in past bears. Always DYOR—crypto markets are volatile, and no prediction is guaranteed. Turn on notifications if following such updates!