阿正

#知行合一挑战
Looking back at my previous transactions and currency analysis, I found that my previous judgments on certain currencies were accurate. I believe that many people will have this feeling: I am optimistic or bearish on a certain currency, and my judgment was accurate at the beginning, but due to other subjective or objective reasons, such as news, market fluctuations, breaking news, etc., I always overturn my previous views or trading strategies.

This is human nature and it is difficult to avoid. Most people are fickle or unsteady. We are all ordinary people. Those who can really set goals, fully execute, and be unwavering are rare.

But often such people who combine knowledge and action can finally succeed. I want to be such a person.

Set yourself a challenge of unity of knowledge and action, and establish your own trading rules, tentatively as follows:
1. Strictly stop profit and stop loss, and set a good profit and loss ratio;
2. Don't listen to other people's blind analysis, have your own judgment, and be responsible for your own decisions;
3. Regularly review data, investment and gambling are not the same thing, don't get carried away;
4. If you lose 3 transactions in a row, stop immediately and calm down;
5. Don't think of eating a fat man in one breath, there will be rises and falls;
6. After completing an order, don't take the next order immediately, learn to wait for an opportunity to enter the market with a short position;
7. Don't do high-multiple short-term contracts;
8. When you realize your mindset, take a break, short, and restart;
9. Separate accounts in different sectors, and don't involve each other. Don't make up the contract margin and cause a wave of losses.
10. The spot position cannot be less than the contract position.

#市场情绪观察

Market sentiment plays a vital role in the crypto market, especially in an environment with high liquidity but low information transparency, FOMO (fear of missing out) and FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) often dominate market trends.

Current market sentiment observation

- LTC ETF expectations and sentiment fluctuations

- Recently, LTC has been affected by ETF rumors, and market sentiment has shifted from cautious to optimistic, but the heat is not as high as BTC and ETH-level assets.

- It is necessary to pay attention to the authenticity of ETF-related news. Once falsified, the market may fall back quickly.

- Overall market sentiment

- BTC consolidates at a high level: Bitcoin maintains high-level fluctuations, and the market generally waits for the next trend signal.

- Altcoin capital flow: ETH and some AI track tokens are still in the spotlight, while LTC has not yet seen strong capital inflows.

- Investor structure: Institutional funds are still focused on BTC and ETH, and LTC is mainly driven by retail sentiment.

- Social media and capital flows

- Discussions on Twitter and Reddit have increased, but have not reached FOMO levels.

- In terms of trading volume, LTC has recently become more active, but is far from reaching its bull market highs.

Short-term outlook
If ETF rumors continue to ferment, LTC may usher in a wave of sentiment-driven short-term rebounds, but if there is no substantial progress, the market heat may quickly fade and return to a volatile market.

#价格趋势分析

Litecoin (LTC) has long been referred to as the 'silver to Bitcoin's gold', with its main features being faster block confirmation times (2.5 minutes) and lower transaction fees, making it a good choice for payments and transfers.

Current Market Performance Analysis
ETF Expectations Driving: Recent rumors regarding Litecoin spot ETFs have shifted market sentiment to a more optimistic outlook, especially after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, which has led to higher expectations for similar assets' ETFs. If the LTC ETF is confirmed for approval, it will greatly enhance its market liquidity and institutional recognition.
Technical Analysis: The price of Litecoin is currently fluctuating around $130, with relatively stable performance over the past few months. A breakout above $150 could lead to greater upside potential, but if the market adjusts, support may be around $120.
On-chain Data: The activity level of the LTC network remains stable, with increasing adoption, especially in the payments sector. Its MWEB (MimbleWimble Extension Blocks) privacy upgrade also brings new value propositions.
Market Positioning: LTC lacks significant innovation, primarily serving as a 'cheap alternative' to Bitcoin, and is missing ecosystems like DeFi and smart contracts. However, its PoW mechanism remains an advantage, and it is expected to continue playing a role in payments and store of value in the future.

Summary
In the short term, ETF expectations may drive LTC prices up, but long-term value will still depend on an increase in adoption. If the ETF ultimately fails to gain approval, LTC may face considerable downside risk.

$LTC

Litecoin (LTC) has been called the "silver of Bitcoin". Its main features are faster block confirmation time (2.5 minutes) and lower transaction fees, making it a good choice for payment and transfer.

ETF expectations drive: Recent rumors about Litecoin spot ETFs have turned market sentiment to optimism, especially after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the market has higher expectations for ETFs of similar assets. If the LTC ETF is confirmed to be approved, it will greatly enhance its market liquidity and institutional recognition.

#莱特币ETF

Recently, the Litecoin spot ETF applied for by Canary Capital Group has been listed on the official website of the U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) with the code LTCC. Although this does not mean that the ETF has received regulatory approval, it indicates that the issuer is preparing for trading. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the probability of the Litecoin ETF being approved has reached 90%. Additionally, the prediction market platform Polymarket shows that the probability of the Litecoin ETF being approved this year is 85%. As of now, the price of Litecoin (LTC) is approximately $134.36, with a market capitalization of about $10.18 billion, ranking 18th among cryptocurrencies.

#链上数据洞察

Why is FDV important?
- Measure the long-term potential of a token: A high FDV may indicate that the current valuation is too high, limiting investment returns.
- Short-term circulation vs. long-term dilution: Even if the FDV is 450 million USD, the circulating tokens upon listing may be very few (for example, 10% circulating, meaning the actual market capitalization is only 45 million USD), which can affect short-term price fluctuations.
- Unlocking pressure: If the tokens held by the team and investors will be gradually unlocked in the future, a high FDV may indicate a significant risk of selling pressure in the future.

Recently, the Litecoin spot ETF applied by Canary Capital Group has been listed on the official website of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) with the code LTCC. Although this does not mean that the ETF has been approved by regulators, it shows that the issuer is preparing for trading. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said that the probability of Litecoin ETF approval is 90%. In addition, the prediction market platform Polymarket shows that the probability of Litecoin ETF approval this year is 85%. As of now, the price of Litecoin (LTC) is about US$134.46, with a market value of approximately US$10.18 billion, ranking 18th among cryptocurrencies. $LTC #莱特币ETF

Pay attention to the selling pressure of KAITO. $KAITO
Spot: If you lose 10%-20%, just sell it. Don't add positions to lower the average price, which will only become other people's exit liquidity.
Contract: It is recommended to short at a high position with a low multiple. IP is a special case. Not all projects can be pulled in this way. It costs money to pull the market, especially for projects with great selling pressure. It is less likely to pull it very high to sell it to you.

According to the latest monitoring data, in Kaito AI's token airdrop event, the following well-known KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders) on Twitter received corresponding token rewards:
Ansem: Received 215,113 KAITO tokens, worth about $230,000, and all have been sold.
Anthony Sassano: Received 166,397 KAITO tokens, worth about $185,000, and all have been sold.
Mert: Received 281,442 KAITO tokens, worth about $340,000, and 80% have been sold.

So far, 24% of the airdropped tokens (i.e. 24 million) have been claimed.
This is essentially a dividend plate for the project party and KOL. At present, some KOLs have protested against the airdrop allocation.
In the process of game, retail investors make money, but the market owner loses money. This is definitely the 28th law.

A trading strategy reference is provided, that is, shorting Kaito, the current price is $1.65, mainly based on the following logics:
The distribution is not transparent, the insider trading is obvious, and the KOL may lose confidence and take the lead in smashing the market.
The liquidity is released too quickly, and the market needs a huge amount of funds to undertake it. There is a possibility of price collapse in the short term.
In such a market environment, market makers (Wintermute) may not force prices, and may even follow the trend and further amplify volatility.
$KAITO

$ETH

The bull market in the cryptocurrency circle is often driven by funds from outside the circle
Previous bull market cycles (such as the ICO craze in 2017 and the NFT craze in 2021) were accompanied by a large influx of funds from outside the circle. The funds and enthusiasm brought by new users have driven the market up.

The CX (MLM/fission) model can indeed quickly attract users from outside the circle
For example, Pi Network has attracted a large number of users from outside the circle through the "zero-cost mining + social fission" method. Even if people in the circle do not believe it, this model does bring huge traffic.

Market activity requires capital flow, and the entry of new users is the key
The same is true for the traditional investment market. Only by the continuous entry of new users can the market's growth momentum be maintained.

#TradeFi革命

Tether is completely decentralized and transparent on the chain. One-to-one mapping. However, the corresponding US dollar actually has certain limitations.

All on-chain fund flows are transparent and traceable, and there are no additional permissions.

The fund pool is also open and transparent, which is very different from the situation of traditional banks.

It has been paying interest far higher than US debt for many years, which can withstand the test of the market.

Bitcoin is the real god.

Seeing this news, I thought of a previous movie "Die Hard with a Vengeance" (1995), which tells the story of a group of robbers disguised as terrorists, hijacking the vault of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and stealing a large amount of gold. They created a series of sleight of hand to make the police mistakenly believe that the gold was still there, but in fact it had been secretly transported away.

And for a long time, some conspiracy theories believe that the gold in Fort Knox may have been replaced with fake ones, or the gold is not there at all.

If Trump really goes to Fort Knox to check the gold reserves and the results show that the reserves are insufficient, this may trigger a series of chain reactions:

Market panic: Gold is an important reserve asset of the global monetary system. If there are problems with the reserves of the Federal Reserve or the US Treasury, it will shake market confidence, cause sharp fluctuations in gold prices, and even affect the credit of the US dollar.
Political conflict: The government may accuse previous presidents or related agencies of mismanagement, triggering political struggles.
Central bank and international impact: If the US gold reserves are insufficient, other countries holding US Treasury bonds (such as China and Japan) may accelerate the sale of US Treasury bonds or reduce their dependence on the US dollar and increase their allocation to other assets (such as gold and Bitcoin).

If it is really confirmed, it may trigger a wider crisis of trust. At that time, will the issue of Bitcoin national reserves be put on the agenda faster? After all, the advantages are obvious: constant total amount, increased value, openness and transparency, and convenient storage. Isn't this better than gold!
$BTC
BTC go to the moon!

$BTC

In the blockchain field, short-term speculative meme coins should not become the future of the industry. At the same time, on a broader social level, many people have lost confidence in democratic models and instead hope for strongman leadership, community self-governance, and decentralization.

If successful, its influence will transcend geographical latitude, linking the world through blockchain.

$BTC

Binance: Forget about 714, f3b, f2b, they are all ALPHA, hurry up and continue p, I just like to play you leeks like dogs
The key is not to release them together, but one by one
When you think the overall situation is settled, the broccoli on f2b is on, and then sell the other broccoli to chase f2b
He went up to 714 again
f2b plummeted instantly, 714 instantly V-return
When you think 714 can go up to alpha together because of the awesome community, and then chase 714
He went up to f3b again
At this time, the leeks' hearts: I xxxxx you xxxx, both cannot be broadcast.

#FTX赔付
The first phase of ftx compensation has ended. The official compensation price is 118% of the price on November 11, 2022. Judging from today's price, friends who hold u have won.

The next compensation time is in April. This time the compensation is for account assets below 50,000 u. There is also a large amount of Solana unlocking on March 1. It is expected that there will be fierce fluctuations from today to the end of the month.

$SOL
Yesterday, FTX's official wallet monitored on-chain data and transferred small amounts of funds in three transactions, possibly for testing the first repayment transfer. Previous news indicated that the first repayment would start today, February 18. Combined with the unlocking of ten million SOL on March 1, and the harvesting of the Argentine presidential coin, market sentiment and confidence continue to decline. It seems difficult to recover; retail investors really have no money left.

#阿根廷总统MEME币争议

Trump + Milei, this pair of celebrities in the cryptocurrency world are the "Crouching Dragon and Hidden Phoenix", a strong alliance between Big Trump and Little Trump, one pioneering and the other wrapping it up quickly. Through round after round of harvesting, they have drained the liquidity of copycat coins in the crypto space, and both Meme and AI have quieted down; the bull market is gone. They have driven it away, and it can only recover after resting and recuperating. Just endure slowly, this wave has been too damaging.

🐶Things, the team behind the short-lived token, a bunch of rogues, referencing Melania's trend, the Argentine libra can't rise anymore, the celebrity coin track comes to an end.

CZ recently tried to learn how Meme culture works on Twitter, trying to make BNB Chain more active, but he is still exploring the mechanism for forming community consensus. He will not personally participate like Trump, but prefers to imitate Musk's strategy. BSC's Meme popularity has risen recently, but the market performance and consensus formation speed are still not as fast as Solana. At the same time, the community still has differences on the hype logic of Meme, and some projects have problems with Dev and insider trading that account for too high a proportion, which has aroused discussions and doubts from investors.

I also have a question: Why can everyone on Solana quickly reach a quick consensus on a hot event and rush together? There are so many dogs with the same name on BSC, and after a night, no results have been produced.
$BNB VS $SOL