阿佛的财经指南

Time flies! The 45-day one-sided uptrend has come to an end. On April 8th, I wrote a detailed piece suggesting a big short around the 80K mark (prior low long strategy before 80K). Now, it's been validated. Looking ahead, I expect high short strategies until the end of July, likely from late May. The market has two groups—one went crazy short in April, and now they're all going wild long. I'm usually opposite to the mainstream market sentiment, and my win rate has been pretty solid. I haven't made any major mistakes in terms of trends and cycles.

Currently, BTC has broken down on the daily chart, and the downtrend is quite evident. I anticipate a major rebound around 76K; my big short outlook remains unchanged. The US stock market is now too high to lift crypto. Talks about Uncle Chuan's visit to China have nothing to do with crypto (I've been bearish recently), and people are still fixated on the Iran situation, which are all lagging trading thoughts. I remember writing an article in March asking why the US wants to strike Iran? Now, with the US stock market rallying for 40 days, these factors combined, take a look back at my previous article. Many think we're just drawing lines... Who said those who draw charts don't consider macroeconomics?

So why am I bearish? I've shared some thoughts before—potential interest rate hikes in Japan in June, the World Cup in July with Canada and Mexico, and potential stock market corrections are all factors to consider. Coupled with the chart, volume, and candlestick structure, it's all pointing bearish. At the end of April, I mentioned not seeing BTC above 83K, which still holds true, determined by volume and gaps.

Now, let's talk about ETH and SOL. These two are really on opposite ends; SOL is catching up, while ETH isn't. ETH at 2600 corresponds to BTC at 81K, but I've mentioned in my livestream that ETH not catching up is a concern. In a bear market, ETH behaves like this—why should it necessarily catch up?

ETH capped at 2480, SOL capped at 98, which aligns with bear market characteristics. There's still downward space for ETH, and I expect it to consolidate around 2150 before a potential upward move. We'll see about the timing.

I’m Afo, a professional trader.
Feel free to like, comment, share, and do the triple click.

Everyone tries, with the strength they have, to bring a faint light into this world—so that the world becomes a better place. This is the meaning of life (not staring at those small, trivial sums; such a life is far too shallow). Your one hundred U might be someone else’s everything. Life is full of hardships; the world is not easy in any way. Do more good deeds. I remember that at the end of June, I was live-streaming with many fellow friends. We held a 65100 empty order and took profit at 58700. In the live stream, I played some Buddhist chants. Some of the friends who listened said they were in tears. Why did they cry? What is the meaning of doing this? Can it help you become a better, more vibrant, living person?

To put it simply, let me talk about the market outlook for the next two months. The reason I shorted near 1850 a few days ago (I got stopped out two days ago) is that ETH’s overall monthly chart structure still suggests I want to see another leg down. Broadly, it’s still the 1400–1500 range. As for the current high-level consolidation, the strategy is basically short-term trades with tight stop losses to participate. Here, I’m not going lower, so I’ll keep waiting for an opportunity. It’s like what I said a few days ago: I wasn’t too willing to take a large position long near 1800. Here, there’s no way to take a trend trade, so I’ve been resting and waiting. What the market is saying now is: if it rises, think it’s bullish; if it falls, think it will go even lower. At 1500, we’ll look at 800; at 1900, we’ll look at 2600. Market sentiment is just like that.

As you go with the flow, there is no road that’s easy. What you need to do is make yourself and what you’re doing become one—so you can achieve yourself, become a trader, become who you are. I mentioned in my live stream earlier the experience from my previous startup, so there is no easy path. Let what you’re doing itself penetrate your body, and then you can find yourself.

The overall profit has recently drawn down by about 14%, meaning I lost ✘✘✘ tens of thousands overnight. But it doesn’t affect the total profit. Trading is like this: if you want to make money, you have to accept that you can also lose money. A few days ago, BTC around 64,000 was ranging. Long positions taken from around July 1 until about July 12. For Big Pie, it was up and down with 3,000-point “needles” poking through in both directions—three times. Every day had millions in fluctuations, which is an extreme test of a trader’s mindset.

We trade trend positions. Here there’s no risk-reward ratio and no large trading range. We generally participate very rarely. In a ranging market, every time there’s a pullback, there is a drawdown. Use a small position to test, stop loss in time. The way of trading—when your capital reaches a certain size, it’s no longer something that can be solved by technique alone. You need to move up to the next level: first-level technique, second-level the way (principles), and third-level mindset. You can see yourself in which level. Which level are you in? Let’s encourage each other.

Let me briefly talk about the market: BTC’s current support is 65,500, and ETH’s support is around 1,900. Here, the 4-hour chart shows a dead cross leading to a pullback, but the 1-hour and 2-hour charts show a bottom divergence. The 3-day K-line golden cross hasn’t finished yet. ETH is even stronger; 2,200 is a strong resistance. For the next short setup, you need the short side to have the dead cross in confluence with the bullish side—only then can you position. For scalping, look for long/short opportunities, and keep knocking the entries back into the pullback; overall, nothing is affected.

1850的ETH has a bit of the same feel: after that initial wave of people getting caught short and being trapped in “🈳” orders, it looks like an overreaction. (The main force didn’t really step in much after 1800.) Yesterday I said I’m not very willing to go long at this 1800 level, because at the bear bottom you can see multiple “second touches” and even “third touches.” Based on the volume and MACD divergence from the past few days, BTC/ETH are both forming an overbought structure. My trading is basically the opposite of market sentiment: when others are excited, I sell; when others are down, I buy. The normal play in this segment is to buy at around 1500 and sell near 1800. As for trying to catch the tail-end rally: the risk will always be greater than the reward. I don’t know what will happen to those chasing longs above 1730 later on—hope they’ll be fine. It doesn’t matter whether I’m okay or not; other people’s situation is their own hell.

What sudden risks are there in the next two months?
This is something I’m currently thinking about.

Comments section reply shortly, I’m busy rebalancing my portfolio for now.

ETH rolls back to 1500, the 🈳 single continues to take 📉

Soon it will be time to go picking up bodies again—there’s 58,500 BTC and 1,500 ETH, and nobody dares to go long. Now everyone thinks 1,800 ETH is cheap. That’s the kind of setup it is: it can’t really go up and it can’t really go down. Avoid it—there’s nothing worth watching. It’s the same every time; there’s nothing unusual.

Sometimes, think about how you got into the trading industry. After chatting for a few days, I found that many people entered at first just to try it out. Then they either made money or lost money, and greed and a desire for revenge kicked in. It was supposed to be a calm mindset for a quick dip into the water, but the more they tried, the stronger their gambling instincts became. Their greed, anger, and ignorance clouded their judgment, and they ended up sinking deeper and deeper. But if you can calm your mind, there are still many chances to turn things around. Trading needs the system to defeat randomness—not gambling. Keeping your original intention means treating every single trade the way you did when you first entered: pure and untainted, not letting your mind be taken over by profits or losses. Skill comes from below; the Way comes from above. The Way comes from below; cultivating the mind comes from above. Trading is very easy to warp people and lead them down a road with no return. Stay vigilant and be on guard at all times.

Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless, like water. You put water into a cup, it becomes the cup; you put water into a bottle, it becomes the bottle; you put water into a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Be water, my friend. Clear your mind, without form or shape—like water. Pour water into a cup and it takes the shape of the cup; pour water into a bottle and it takes the shape of the bottle; pour water into a teapot and it takes the shape of the teapot. The martial arts philosophy of Bruce Lee applies in business as well: use the formless as form, use the infinite as the limited.

The order book is like a stagnant pool of still water. Today I’m speaking internally again. We’re getting close to the bottom of the range. Not long ago, people who went short from 82,000 down to 60,000, and those who went long from above 58,500 up to 64,000—made a lot of money. Basically, it’s hard for us to lose. At worst, we won’t place short orders here and just wait for the bottom. We can still win. A couple of days ago, someone in the comment section said that Brother Fo’s condition hasn’t been good these two days—what do you think? In this kind of market, without a stop loss (and besides, the stop loss is very tight), then going heavy on the position—isn’t that basically asking for death? So at this stage, with high-level consolidation, we control our position size, do small trades—if we can, we do; if we can’t, we stay aside. The MD market here looks like 💩. Not trading is fine. Right now I only hold a small number of short positions. This morning I reduced some of the short positions while they were in profit. No matter how much it shakes around, it doesn’t matter.

So many people here are already getting dizzy. You could say that after BTC hit 64,000, it has become pretty bad. Judging from the order book, this afternoon’s sell-off means the rebound from 57,700 to 65,500 is about to end. The trend change is going to happen within these few days. Now, the only thing short positions need to worry about is the Clarity Act, but with news like this, I usually don’t pay attention to it—I respect the market. The ETH 1,830 uptrend has been broken. Tonight, I’ll check how the US stock market is doing. For BTC, last Saturday, our long position bought at 58,500 was completely closed near 64,000. These days have been small-position trial trades, with extremely tight stop-losses—just to prevent this kind of trend change. When trading contracts, don’t hold against the position. Don’t hold against it.

The final bottom interval will also accelerate and deviate,
then if you can’t understand it, you’ll be thrown off the bus directly. The market should finally give one last chance to buy the dip. Many people aren’t that lucky every single time—getting off the bus, then getting back on. Trading is really not about sheer effort; it’s about knowledge—about timing and fate. Traveling ten thousand miles is not as good as having a guide. The key is that there are too many counterfeit “masters” in the market; you have to rely on wisdom to tell the real from the fake (a master says, “Open ten orders a day—put me in…”)

The BTC and ETH rebound levels I received on July 2—right now only ETH is the strongest, having reached around 1900. This ETH rebound is up 27%, extremely strong. As for BTC, this rebound is the weakest. SOL is currently the worst. I’ve said it many times before: SOL is trash (as expected). This morning I said to cancel the BTC long positions—the trend has turned bad, but overall it doesn’t look too serious. The shorts were a bit late, but we’re still in the game; we’ve also taken the 🈳 trades and they’re currently in profit. The market is moving pretty fast, so it’s not really a slap in the face. The logic for that long trade last night was simply to catch a BTC lagging-rebound to make up for the move. But when I woke up this morning, the market looked very weak, so I canceled the longs and flipped to 🈳 shorts.

Let’s talk about this bottom-fishing entry area. The 57700–65500 range is very clearly the “bull pullback” main accumulation zone. I wonder how many people understood that? At the end of June, when I called the low and went long, many people didn’t believe it and missed at least a 20%+ ETH rally. Add leverage into the mix, and many people suffered huge losses ➕ and missed out. In contrast, our friends who followed along are basically eating it up.

Now let’s discuss the next strategy: after this big drop, we still bottom-fish, but be cautious. Below 60K (60,000), you should always maintain a bottom-fishing mindset. For spot, there’s no need to overthink it—going long from 58,000 or from 55,000 makes no real difference. Many people, no matter what the situation is, even if “Big Pie” (BTC) drops to 50K, they’re thinking about 40K or 30K BTC. Their steps are always one beat slower. That’s just how it goes. Just like now: once it starts rising and enters the consolidation range, the money gets scared off by the main force.

BTW, the bottom is used to shake people off the train. When the car is light, the main force can pull it up more easily. From what I can see, a whole bunch more people are going to miss this move.

Here there is high-level consolidation, and they’re all small-lot trades—nothing much to mock. Over the past few months, we’ve already made a lot. Currently, around BTC 64,000 and ETH 1,850, the price could turn downward at any time, so positions shouldn’t be too large.

In the morning, I ran long orders. I averaged at 64,100, and exited at 63,800.
A small loss. The trend turned bad.
I didn’t catch the short-term longs from 64,000 to 67,200.