Time flies! The 45-day one-sided uptrend has come to an end. On April 8th, I wrote a detailed piece suggesting a big short around the 80K mark (prior low long strategy before 80K). Now, it's been validated. Looking ahead, I expect high short strategies until the end of July, likely from late May. The market has two groups—one went crazy short in April, and now they're all going wild long. I'm usually opposite to the mainstream market sentiment, and my win rate has been pretty solid. I haven't made any major mistakes in terms of trends and cycles.
Currently, BTC has broken down on the daily chart, and the downtrend is quite evident. I anticipate a major rebound around 76K; my big short outlook remains unchanged. The US stock market is now too high to lift crypto. Talks about Uncle Chuan's visit to China have nothing to do with crypto (I've been bearish recently), and people are still fixated on the Iran situation, which are all lagging trading thoughts. I remember writing an article in March asking why the US wants to strike Iran? Now, with the US stock market rallying for 40 days, these factors combined, take a look back at my previous article. Many think we're just drawing lines... Who said those who draw charts don't consider macroeconomics?
So why am I bearish? I've shared some thoughts before—potential interest rate hikes in Japan in June, the World Cup in July with Canada and Mexico, and potential stock market corrections are all factors to consider. Coupled with the chart, volume, and candlestick structure, it's all pointing bearish. At the end of April, I mentioned not seeing BTC above 83K, which still holds true, determined by volume and gaps.
Now, let's talk about ETH and SOL. These two are really on opposite ends; SOL is catching up, while ETH isn't. ETH at 2600 corresponds to BTC at 81K, but I've mentioned in my livestream that ETH not catching up is a concern. In a bear market, ETH behaves like this—why should it necessarily catch up?
ETH capped at 2480, SOL capped at 98, which aligns with bear market characteristics. There's still downward space for ETH, and I expect it to consolidate around 2150 before a potential upward move. We'll see about the timing.
I’m Afo, a professional trader.
Feel free to like, comment, share, and do the triple click.
Currently, BTC has broken down on the daily chart, and the downtrend is quite evident. I anticipate a major rebound around 76K; my big short outlook remains unchanged. The US stock market is now too high to lift crypto. Talks about Uncle Chuan's visit to China have nothing to do with crypto (I've been bearish recently), and people are still fixated on the Iran situation, which are all lagging trading thoughts. I remember writing an article in March asking why the US wants to strike Iran? Now, with the US stock market rallying for 40 days, these factors combined, take a look back at my previous article. Many think we're just drawing lines... Who said those who draw charts don't consider macroeconomics?
So why am I bearish? I've shared some thoughts before—potential interest rate hikes in Japan in June, the World Cup in July with Canada and Mexico, and potential stock market corrections are all factors to consider. Coupled with the chart, volume, and candlestick structure, it's all pointing bearish. At the end of April, I mentioned not seeing BTC above 83K, which still holds true, determined by volume and gaps.
Now, let's talk about ETH and SOL. These two are really on opposite ends; SOL is catching up, while ETH isn't. ETH at 2600 corresponds to BTC at 81K, but I've mentioned in my livestream that ETH not catching up is a concern. In a bear market, ETH behaves like this—why should it necessarily catch up?
ETH capped at 2480, SOL capped at 98, which aligns with bear market characteristics. There's still downward space for ETH, and I expect it to consolidate around 2150 before a potential upward move. We'll see about the timing.
I’m Afo, a professional trader.
Feel free to like, comment, share, and do the triple click.
