I still remember the bull market in 2017, when a new currency was launched on a certain platform, and the price soared like a rocket, from 50 cents to 10,000 yuan. At that time, everyone thought it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, but just a few hours later, the price fell back to 50 cents. I heard that someone borrowed 1 million to buy at the top, but in the end only a few thousand yuan was left, which was really terrible. Such things make me always think twice before investing.

This time REEF is even more shocking. It plummeted 60% the day before yesterday. Many people thought it was a good opportunity to buy at the bottom, but yesterday it fell another 40%. Many people think this is the bottom, but what's more terrible is that it may continue to fall, which reminds people of the former Luna. The trend of such altcoins is like Mario's jump. You always think you have reached the bottom line, but in fact it can jump lower and lower. Newbies should never think that they have reached the bottom, otherwise they will fall into the bottomless abyss.

However, the more desperate the moment is, the more likely it is that a turnaround is about to come. I have already fully invested, waiting for a rebound, and I expect it to reach 0.1 this time.

The trend of the cryptocurrency circle is full of uncertainty and challenges, but it also contains potential opportunities. When participating in cryptocurrency investment, investors should fully understand the relevant risks, stay calm and rational at all times, and respond to market changes with a steady strategy.

The highest realm of cryptocurrency speculation;

1. Do not borrow money to speculate in cryptocurrency

2. Do not overdraw, use spare money to speculate in cryptocurrency

3. Never do short-term trading

4. If the opportunity does not come, it is better to wait with empty positions

5. Do not over-rely on technical indicators

6. Do not speculate in junk, unpopular and copycat currencies

7. No matter how good the currency is, it will not enter the market unless it is cut in half

8. Choose to short position after the bull market ends

9. Select the target, and once entering the market, it is a heavy position

#比特币 #以太坊

January 18th Highlights;

1. Coinbase CEO: Supports the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve and the creation of a special economic zone for digital assets
2. Seven states in the U.S. push for legislation on 'strategic Bitcoin reserves', with varying content and implementation methods
3. Two men from Los Angeles planned a $100 million cryptocurrency heist and have pleaded guilty
4. Digital Currency Group's (DCG) lending platform Genesis fined $38 million for fraudulent activities
5. Japanese listed company Metaplanet's market value surpasses $1 billion for the first time after adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset

Technical analysis of the futures market divides the market into three trends:

1⃣ Uptrend: Both highs and lows are continually rising.

2⃣ Downtrend: Both highs and lows are declining.

3⃣ Sideways trend: Highs and lows are roughly parallel.

Yes, you heard that right, sideways is also considered a trend.

Starting from October 2024, BTC entered an uptrend (highs and lows are rising), and then by mid-December, it transitioned to a consolidation phase (highs and lows are parallel).

So right now, BTC is in a consolidation phase, which means a consolidation strategy should be adopted, rather than blindly chasing ups and downs.

Understanding this is more important than blindly guessing whether BTC will go up or down today.

$PEOPLE

Currently, from the weekly trend perspective, it has begun a major correction, and the short-term is severely oversold! The overall structure adjustment is nearly complete, and now is a good time to buy some spot, hold long-term, and wait for a surge to reap the rewards. Brothers with ideas can pay special attention!

For the short-term, the first target is 0.046, and for the long-term, the target is to double!

Today, I would like to share some cryptocurrencies worth focusing on before the Spring Festival:
Stablecoin Sector
ENA (After experiencing a curved bottom washout, its increase has exceeded 100%, continuing to wait for further rise)
USUAL (Promising, but will consider entering after the price stabilizes)
DeFi Sector
CRV (Established DeFi leader, its trend has been consistently strong)
COW (A newly emerging swap platform, backed by strong IP support)
AI Sector
WLD, ARKM, LPT, IO (Recognized AI infrastructure, although it has not significantly surged yet, it will surely rise rapidly later with the momentum from VC coins)
Chain Oil Sector
SAND (Sector leader)
AI (The combination of AI and GameFi)
HMSTR (A gaming project on the TON chain)
Meme Coins
PNUT, ACT, NEIRO, BOME (These four have seen significant declines recently, but they are also the most promising)
These are the key sectors currently being focused on. In addition, there are some RWA, DEPIN, NFT, and some well-performing cryptocurrencies that I will share gradually later.
After the rapid rebound on the 13th, the recent market may continue to rise for a while, and the darkness before dawn has temporarily passed.

Is today the Xiaohongshu concept + DEFAI concept?

Bull market, one-sided trend, making money is simple.

Bear market, volatile downward trend, moderate difficulty.

Monkey market, unclear direction, maximum difficulty.

People are certainly important, but timing is even more important.

Not trading is also an important part of trading.
#AIAgent热潮 #微策略持续增持BTC

January 14th Hot Topics;

1. Foreign media: Trump's team is studying a gradual increase in tariffs of 2%-5% per month and is asking banks holding digital assets to treat them as liabilities.
2. The President of El Salvador suggests that Rumble should also relocate its headquarters to El Salvador.
3. Trump's inauguration will invite tech leaders to participate and will host a "crypto ball" to honor his identity as the "first crypto president."
4. Warren sent a letter to the nominee for Treasury Secretary, raising issues regarding stablecoin and cryptocurrency regulation.
5. A U.S. court has ordered the SEC to "explain itself" for rejecting Coinbase's request regarding specific cryptocurrency regulations.

Many seasoned traders in various trading circles share a commonality in their trading data:

Their drawdowns are very small, and risk control is excellent. In summary, earn more when making money, lose less when losing, cut losses in a timely manner, let profits run, and stand on the side of probability. After countless games of chance, the difficulty in making long-term profits lies in emotional interference and not adhering to trading discipline. Therefore, many impressive traders ultimately become philosophers, frequently reflecting on their inner thoughts.

Hot topics on January 13;

1.ONDO, CHEEL, CONX and other tokens will be unlocked in large amounts next week, with ONDO unlocking $2.41 billion
2.Scam Sniffer: "NUDEAI" and "MAGA" on the Base chain are fraudulent tokens, and backdoor codes can bypass authorization to transfer assets
3.Security company Cyberhaven was attacked by phishing emails, and browser plug-ins were implanted with malicious code
4.Mango Markets reached a settlement with the US SEC and will gradually end operations from tomorrow
5.ElizaOS released version 0.1.8, adding 8 network integrations such as Hyperliquid and Lens

BTC continues to fluctuate, possibly until next week. It's the altcoin season, as previously mentioned, if there are any, they are only partial.
Those who experienced 2021 know that I can responsibly tell everyone that in 2021 there was a lot of liquidity, and the market was flooded with hot money. However, in the secondary altcoin market, only the strong continued to be strong, while the weak truly became weaker. In 2021, the focus was on the metaverse, gaming, DeFi, public chains, and memes. As we move into 2024-2025, the focus has shifted to public chains, AI, memes, along with a few leading tracks.

Currently, it is still fluctuating between 91,500 and 98,000. Last night there was a movement, but since the sentiment has already been speculated on, $BTC is still around 94,000. Now it's the weekend with low liquidity, so it is expected to fluctuate through this period.

A coin that has harmony is destined not to have explosive growth, let alone only harmony, for example:

ai16z exploded to 2.2, while on Binance, hy dropped to 1.8
swarms exploded to 0.6, while on Binance, hy dropped to 0.4

Do not panic sell during a downturn, and do not be greedy during a rebound.

1. Focus on rapidly rotating hot sectors. The main characteristic of this bull market is that we identify hot sectors (if that's not possible, then BES). Altcoins are divided into three tiers:
① The first tier consists of hot coins, several times their low points;
② The second tier includes the majority, whose potential lies in bouncing back from extreme lows (a common occurrence is around double their lowest point);
③ The third tier consists of worthless coins, which have fallen to a point where they cannot fall further, and even a rebound to double their value is not possible; such coins can be abandoned.

2. On-chain bull markets are greater than secondary bull markets
Whenever there is a chorus of despair in the secondary market, the on-chain market has actually experienced one bull market after another. From MEME to AI AGENT, new things are constantly emerging. This round of market activity is mostly concentrated on-chain, while the secondary market often leaves us 'suffering', so let’s not be 'deceived' again! In fact, we can glean some insights from the actions of major exchanges. It is clear that almost all the key points of this round are on DEX, which is the trend. As for why some areas of the secondary market consistently disappoint, it may be gathering strength, waiting for an explosion, but I believe it is genuinely facing a lack of funds.

3. Not learning will definitely lead to elimination.

In this ever-changing crypto market, I believe that in the future, Bitcoin's volatility may gradually decrease. At that time, trading methods may need to emulate forex by using high leverage to achieve profits. As for the altcoin market, it seems quite difficult to find new opportunities that can break the existing situation. Although some claim the altcoin season has ended, I firmly believe it still exists. However, I will not wait blindly; instead, I will calm down to learn and actively seek new trends.
If new hot areas emerge in the future, I will definitely do my best to seize the opportunity to make money. Therefore, I plan to focus my energy on the AI and blockchain fields (of course, not putting all my funds into it). There will still be many opportunities ahead, let us work hard together to reap abundant rewards and have a prosperous year.

Key Influences on the Cryptocurrency Market:
1️⃣ Risk Asset Capital Inflow: If the data shows weakness, funds may shift to safe-haven assets, with Bitcoin playing the role of 'digital gold' here, attracting large inflows of capital.
2️⃣ Market Sentiment Rebound: Bitcoin's recent performance has been volatile, but non-farm data may reignite market interest in digital currencies, especially when the Federal Reserve's stance is dovish.
3️⃣ Surge in Volatility: Regardless of the outcome, non-farm data often exacerbates short-term market fluctuations, potentially providing a great opportunity for short-term traders.

If the data falls short of expectations, Bitcoin is likely to experience a rapid rebound, with a target price potentially returning to above $100,000. However, it is important to note that such a rebound is more based on short-term sentiment, while long-term trends will depend on policy and the further direction of economic fundamentals.

Is the force of this round of BTC decline strong? Has the downward trend started?
Is the downward force strong:
From the market, I drew three rounds of decline waves. The first round had a large decline and a large decline volume.
The second round of decline was smaller than the first round, and the volume was also smaller than the first round, and the price did not break the previous low.
The third round of decline was smaller than the second round, and the volume was also smaller than the second round. The price did not break the low point of the second round of decline, and the rising high broke the second round.
So compared with the three rounds of decline, each wave is weaker than the other. This is from the market, and it is real.

$BTC

Bull Market Characteristics:
First 8 Months: The market shows slow fluctuations and consolidation adjustments, with funds gradually positioning.
Last 2 Months: Market sentiment rapidly heats up, forming a main upward wave, and prices surge dramatically.
Final 2 Months: Market sentiment reaches its peak, crazily building a top, with significantly increased risks.
Current Judgment:
The bull market started in March 2024 and is currently in a mid-term consolidation phase; the real explosion has yet to come.
Based on historical cycles, the explosive period is expected to be between February and May 2025, with the main upward wave completing most of its gains in just a few months.
The entire bull market may end in July 2025, followed by a bear market.

In the crypto world, earning 1 million in capital is a crucial first step to changing your destiny. For many, the rolling position strategy is the only choice to go from tens of thousands to 1 million.

Why is 1 million seen as a starting point? Once you have 1 million in capital, your investment perspective and life will be completely different. With no leverage, a 20% increase in spot trading can yield a profit of 200,000, which exceeds the annual income of most people.

The core secret of the rolling position strategy:
Patience is key: The profit potential of rolling positions is enormous, but this path requires finding high-certainty opportunities. Impulsive and random actions significantly increase the risk of failure.
Choosing the right timing: A sideways market after a sharp drop, followed by a breakout, is the best opportunity for rolling positions. Once the trend reverses, get in decisively from the start.
Only roll long positions: Focus solely on long positions to reduce the impact of market fluctuations on you. Going with the trend is the way to achieve stable victories.

The risks and misconceptions of rolling positions: Many believe that rolling positions carry high risks, but in fact, they are far lower than high-leverage futures. Taking 50,000 as an example:
An initial position of 10%, with a stop loss of only 2%, results in a maximum loss of 1,000 yuan.
If the market moves favorably, each increase can allow for compounding; for example, a market move from 10,000 to 15,000 can multiply profits several times.
The entire process steadily increases capital with low risk, rather than gambling everything at once. So what is the significance of rolling positions? Capturing two waves of 50% trend movements can turn 50,000 into 1 million. The rolling growth from capital to profit not only allows you to establish yourself in the crypto world but also lays a solid foundation for every future investment. The key lies in rationality, patience, and precise grasp of market opportunities.

Hot topics on January 8;

1. According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation amount of the cryptocurrency market in the past 24 hours reached US$542 million, of which long orders were liquidated at US$484 million and short orders were liquidated at US$57.4223 million

2. BIT Mining entered Ethiopia and used low electricity prices to extend the life of mining machines

3. Sol Strategies obtained a US$25 million credit line for Solana investment and pledge expansion

4. Garanti BBVA Kripto cooperates with Bitstamp to promote crypto trading services

5. Backpack acquires FTX EU and makes claims to EU users

#本轮牛市周期预期

Bull markets often begin in moments of despair, unfolding amidst skepticism, and ultimately concluding in an absurd atmosphere.
In fact, the bull market has already started since the beginning of this year, and we are currently in a bull market phase.
The price of Bitcoin rose from 15,000 to 30,000, then climbed to 60,000, and now has reached 100,000. The true Bitcoin halving moment in mid-2024 will become the final bullish signal that drives the bull market into absurdity.
At that time, all low-priced chips will be sold off, marking the end of the bull market.
By 2025, prices may oscillate at high levels, while in reality, we have already entered a bear market phase.