Bitcoin Bear Market Dynamics: Identifying the Bottom and 'Killing' the Bear
Market Supply Mechanism in Bear Market Price decline is not just about falling prices but also reshaping ownership: speculative capital drives prices up, then capitulation cleans out short-term holders. Coin Movement: From peak buyers to patient accumulation, through indicators like Realized Price (average cost basis $BTC ) or STH Cost Basis (coin @155 days). Capitulation and Pain: Starting with 'price pain' (sell-off), followed by 'time pain' (prolonged sideways, testing resolve).
After reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $121.67/oz at the end of January 2026, the silver price is currently adjusting to the level of $94/oz (as of March 1, 2026).
Following an explosive growth of +320% during the period of 2025-2026, the market structure is revealing significant signals:
Trend and Indicators: The price is maintaining above the EMA50 line, indicating that the medium-term uptrend has not been broken. RSI is currently above 50 and has not entered the overbought zone, providing room for recovery movements.
Resistance Level: The level of $100 is a major psychological barrier. If surpassed, the price could regain control of the $110-$121 range.
Support Level: The $85-90 zone is an important support point. If this level is broken, the price risks retreating to the long-term support range of $70-75.
ANALYSIS OF INDEX $BTC REALIZED PRICE (EXCLUDING RESERVE SUPPLY >7 YEARS)
After applying the filter above, the average cost of all investors is currently around 72,700 USD.
BTC has maintained trading below this cost price for nearly a month. According to historical statistical rules, whenever the Bitcoin price breaks and stays below this important technical support level sustainably, the market often enters a distinct Bear Market phase.
Similar downturn phases in the past typically lasted from 6 to 12 months. To re-establish a growth position (bullish), Bitcoin must successfully reclaim the level of 72,700 USD. Bringing a large number of investors back to a profitable state is a crucial factor in reducing selling pressure and strengthening long-term holding sentiment.
THE CORRELATION BETWEEN GLOBAL LIQUIDITY (M2) AND THE PRECIOUS METALS GROUP (XAU)
Historical data and current volatility indicate a notable structural shift in the global financial system. As liquidity is pumped out, scarce assets tend to be the final funnel for cash flow.
ABSOLUTE M2 VOLATILITY ANALYSIS Based on the growth chart from 2021 to early 2026, we observe an irreversible progressive trajectory of currency:
Week 2 - I continue to buy 1u $BTC more because the price is still around 6x
In terms of psychological factors, it generally looks quite bad, and most people are still waiting for even lower prices this year. Bitcoin has also decreased for 5 consecutive months, which has never happened before.
Everyone thinks that further decline is reasonable because all factors indicate it could happen, but if the price rebounds, the sentiment will change immediately, and the first thing I do is stick to my plan, putting emotions aside.
A bear market has never been quick and easy, but every bear season has notable rebounds, what I'm aiming for is the next few years, so let's just chill, folks.
Since 2015, Bitcoin and the global M2 money supply have undergone 23 directional divergences – defined as periods in which M2 continues to rise while BTC declines.
Historically, each issue has been resolved on average within one to two months, as liquidity expansion permeates through the risk asset hierarchy and ultimately finds its way into BTC.
The current divergence has broken this historical pattern, exceeding any previous phase in both duration and intensity. This is not a statistical anomaly that can be distilled into a single variable; rather, it may be the product of three mutually reinforcing structural distortions converging simultaneously for the first time in the history of the dataset.
DO TECHNICAL INDICATORS SHOW $BTC APPROACHING A STRUCTURAL BOTTOM?
The latest report from Binance Research indicates that several technical indicators are converging, suggesting that the cryptocurrency market may be in or near a structural bottoming phase, for reference:
1. The Realized Profit/Loss (Realized P/L) ratio has actually fallen below 1
- The Realized P/L ratio of Bitcoin (90-day moving average SMA) has dropped below 1.0 for the first time since 2023.
- This is a marker indicating the shift to a state of actual losses across the network - a typical feature of the "capitulation" phase
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After a season of dynamic development, new laws support and also have disputes among major entities, Stablecoin is proving to be a closely related niche of crypto, with chains competing for market share.
1. Market Size & Dynamics - The Stablecoin market reached a capitalization of ~252 billion USD (up 22% YoY). - On-chain transaction volume reached 8.9 trillion USD in the first half of 2025, driven by payment demand and usage in DeFi during a vibrant market (more details in the section below).
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OVERALL VIEW OF THE EVENT - WHICH PROJECT WILL ZACHXBT EXPOSE?
The event is causing a stir as to whether it could be the start of another project collapse.
1. Main event
- Yesterday, ZachXBT, the famous on-chain investigator, posted on X that on 26/02 he will announce "a major investigation conducted into one of the most profitable businesses in cryptocurrency, where many employees have abused insider information for trading over a long period of time."
- The entire crypto community is buzzing, some think pumpfun, others think hyperliquid,... attracting over 5.7 million views, 21,000 likes, 2,200+ reposts within just a few hours.
2. Polymarket bets explode
- Polymarket launched the market “Which crypto company will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?” (22 options).
- Trading volume: Just in the first 3 hours: >$600,000 Total so far: $2.71 million (latest data from Polymarket).
*Current Odds (24/02/2026, updated realtime from Polymarket):
- Meteora – ~40% – Volume: $292k - Jupiter – 26% - Volume: $99k - Axiom – 14% – Volume: $213k - Pumpfun – 7% – Volume: $322k (highest) - MEXC – 8% - Volume: $117k - World Liberty Financial (WLFI) – 7%– Volume: $307k - And many other projects mentioned with lower rates...
3. Market impact
- Related tokens are being sold off as follows: $MET (Meteora): -6.5% $PUMP (Pumpfun): -6.6% $HYPE : -4.4%
=> Traders frontrun sell early and bet on Polymarket, creating a FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) effect even without official evidence.
4. Current summary
- This is not the first time ZachXBT has criticized insider trading on Polymarket (previously referring to Logan Paul as “stealth ad” Polymarket, pointing out accounts suspected of insider trading during the Super Bowl halftime show...).
NEAR Protocol officially launched Nearcom (23/02/2026 at NEARCON 2026) – a super application combining crypto wallet + consumer app, making blockchain as easy to use as a bank app.
* Highlights:
- A single account managing all assets ( $BTC , stablecoin, NFT, multi-chain) without worrying about gas, private key, or chain transfers.
- Deep integration of AI Agent: Nearcom acts as the “economic backend” for AI - allowing AI to automatically make payments, shop, negotiate on behalf of users.
- In addition, Illia Polosukhin (co-author of the Transformer paper) further stated: “We are entering the era of AI acting on behalf of humans.”
=> The goal is to eliminate all crypto barriers, boost adoption for billions of people & pave the way for AI to become an “economic entity” on the blockchain.
*Price $NEAR has no positive response after this news
THE DICHOTOMY BETWEEN RETAIL CAPITAL AND STABLECOIN LIQUIDITY
1. Position differentiation
*Santiment shows a notable shift in ownership since the peak in October 2025:
- Retail Group (Wallet < 0.1 $BTC ): Has increased its holding ratio by +2.5%. This is the highest accumulation level of the retail investor group since June 2024.
- Stakeholders Group (Wallet 10 - 10K $BTC ): On the contrary, "whales" and "sharks" have reduced their holding ratio by about -0.8%.
=> A sustainable price increase typically needs to be led by significant capital flows (Smart Money). The high holding ratio of Retail while key wallets retreat creates a market structure that is "lacking support". Without a reversal from the Stakeholders group, technical recovery phases may be limited in scope due to a lack of substantial buying power to absorb selling pressure.
2. Extreme signals from USDT liquidity
- The 60-day market capitalization change of USDT has fallen into negative territory (-$3.11B). This is a significant liquidity drop, equivalent to what occurred at the market bottom in 2022.
=> When Stablecoin market capitalization drops sharply, it reflects increasing liquidity pressure. Cash is leaving the market or is on the sidelines observing.
- Historically, when this index hits strong negative thresholds, it often signals a depletion of selling power. However, this is a "lagging indicator" for the bottom, confirming the value area but not immediately indicating a reversal point.
RELATED WALLETS OF TEAM PUMPFUN CONTINUOUSLY SELLING
Two wallets linked to the Pumpfun team (receiving tokens from the Custodian or having transaction history related to the team) have pushed a total of 4.96 billion $PUMP onto the market, worth over 10.59 million USD
1. Wallet 77DsB...PXe Has completely sold out 100%
- Total sold 3.75 billion $PUMP (equivalent to ~25.39 million USD initial value when received from the Token Custodian in July 2025).
=> The result yielded a total of 8.02 million USDC at an average price of about $0.00214.
- 17/02/2026: Kick-off selling 543.23 million PUMP (yielding 1.207 million USDC).
- 19–20/02/2026: The largest sell order reached 2.07 billion PUMP (yielding 4.55 million USDC).
- 21/02/2026: Additional sales
- 22/02/2026: Finally unloading 373.5 million PUMP, bringing the wallet balance to 0.
2. Wallet GpCfm...6SA is in the process of unloading
- Most recently transferred 1.21 billion PUMP (worth about 2.57 million USD) directly to the exchange. This is usually a stepping stone for liquidity on CEX.
- Currently still holding 3.54 billion PUMP (equivalent to about 7.4 million USD at current market prices).
=> This is the first time this wallet has shown significant token transfer activity after 7 months
=> The remaining balance of 3.54 billion PUMP may still leave the possibility of further selling open.
3. Summary
- The team sold heavily at a price of $0.0021, much lower than the Public Sale price ($0.004) and the previous peak (~$0.009)
- This is the largest sell-off from wallets related to the development team since PUMP launched
- The willingness to accept losses compared to the initial value received ($25.39M down to $8.02M) indicates that the team or related entities are in extremely urgent need of liquidity, or they no longer have expectations for a short-term price recovery
BASE LEAVES OP STACK - SUPER CHAIN VISION COLLAPSE?
On 18/02/2026, Base officially announced the transition to a unified stack managed by itself. This is one of the most important events of the Ethereum Layer-2 system since Base launched in 2023.
Base leaves Optimism Superchain
1. The nature of change - Not leaving Ethereum, just leaving OP Stack
- Base is still a pure Optimistic Rollup. The transaction data layer is still posted to Ethereum L1. Settlement and security are still entirely inherited from Ethereum. There is no separate validator set, no separate consensus, and it does not become L1.
The interbank interest rate in Vietnam (mainly overnight term) surged strongly at the beginning of February 2026 due to seasonal liquidity pressure before returning to normal levels.
- It reached 21% at one point (the highest in history, on February 3, 2026), previously climbing to 17% (on February 3-4).
- It then decreased sharply thanks to the SBV injecting record liquidity: down to 8.5% (on February 5-10), then plummeting to 4.2% (on February 11), continuing down to 3.7% (on February 12) and maintaining low around 3.7-4% recently (before Tet).
- Annual comparison: This fluctuation is unusual in terms of extreme levels (the peak of 21% is a record high, far exceeding previous years like 2024-2025 which only increased to 8-9% near Tet, or 2023-2022 around 2-8%).
=> The main cause is the demand for cash during Tet combined with a large credit-deposit spread and a new tax factor, but it remains a temporary seasonal phenomenon, cooling quickly after the SBV's intervention.