吾道者—cc

$BTC Such as this, it's effortless to reverse and trade ups and downs—no one gives in, no one yields,

$CL 7x24H
Breaking News
09-25 00:28:00 Friday
Insider: The United States and Iran are discussing a phased agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the U.S. blockade.$CL

Houthi forces announce strikes on Saudi military deployments
causing hundreds killed and injured
Jin10 Data, September 24 — In a statement, the Houthis said: “In view of the observation that Saudi enemy forces are carrying out large-scale military mobilization, with the aim of intensifying actions in border areas, we carried out a preemptive, targeted, and large-scale military operation. Using dozens of ballistic missiles and drones, we struck the Saudi enemy’s operational command rooms, command-and-control centers, arms depots, and other key targets at military assembly points in the Al-Tuwal (Al-Tuwal) area in Jizan, which belong to the so-called ‘Sixth Emergency Brigade.’ The operation resulted in hundreds of Saudi enemy personnel being killed and injured, including personnel from Yemen and Sudan, as well as dozens of Saudi enemy personnel and officers. Multiple arms depots of the Saudi enemy were destroyed and set on fire. We will continue to implement the policy of ‘responding to a blockade with a blockade, and responding to escalation with escalation,’ continuously striking the military forces associated with the Saudi enemy’s deployments until aggression stops and the blockade against our country is lifted.’”$CL

Federal Reserve Chair Paulson said it may be necessary to raise interest rates moderately. $BTC

7x24H
News Flash
09-24 16:45:13 Thursday
Iran warns war could expand to the Indian Ocean
Jin10 Data September 24 news. According to Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, Iran’s top leader’s military adviser Safavi warned that if the United States or Israel again attacks Iran’s national centers or interests targets, the conflict could further escalate. The conflict could spread beyond the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, further extending to the Red Sea and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, and eventually reaching the Indian Ocean. Safavi also warned that if the United States launches another war, new fighting could emerge near the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. His remarks indicate that Tehran is warning that in any future conflict, the geographic scope could increase significantly and may affect regional security as well as major global shipping routes.#原油 $CL

$BTC
$XAU
7x24H
Breaking News
09-24 16:25:51 Thursday
Fed Chair Williams: It is reasonable to raise rates again by the end of the year
Jin10 Data September 24—Fed Chair Williams said that we have seen the U.S. economy demonstrate significant resilience, and the downside risks to achieving full employment have weakened.
He also noted that inflation faces major challenges and that demand for artificial intelligence is quite strong. He said that we need to bring inflation back to the target level in a timely manner, and that it is reasonable to raise rates again by the end of the year.

All factors are strengthening the US dollar system—requiring high oil prices and high interest rates... The Middle East can’t stop, and rate cuts are impossible!
Everything we do is to strengthen 💲$CL

$CL According to a report by ChainCatcher, the US Central Command said that as of September 23, it has redirected 115 commercial vessels in strict implementation of the US “Steel Wall” blockade $CL

Dogecoin rose more than 15% during Tuesday’s Asian morning session, becoming the top gainer among major tokens, with its current price just above $0.10. Bitcoin, meanwhile, stayed above $85,600 and rose about 5% over the past 24 hours. Over the past day, more than $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, with 82% (about $844 million) belonging to short sellers. Around 135,000 traders were forced to close their positions. Bitcoin accounted for roughly $608 million of the day’s liquidations, while Ethereum was $181 million. The largest single liquidation was a nearly $21 million Bitcoin position on HyperLiquid. XRP climbed 7% to near $1.52, and SOL rose 5% to around $117. Ethereum gained 3% to near $2,740, while BNB and TRX each rose 1% to $2. $BTC #BTC
$ETH

【$BTC On-chain snapshot 9/19-20｜The “escape wave” is being cashing out as proof; retail investors are still catching the knife】

📉 Price path: $81,951 — failure to break higher → broke below $80,911 with a fake breakout confirmation line → low at $80,149 → current price $80,530, grinding

🔗 On-chain four lines:

1️ Net inflow: +6,131 (9/18 sequence peak) → +182 (-97% during the ebb) → +981
—— After distribution hit the extreme, the incoming coin wave has returned to zero; the rebound portion now comes entirely from retail investors (average inflow: 0.61 BTC per trade)

2️ Whale gap (Top10 deposit-withdraw gap): +169.2 → +2.7 back to zero
—— Big players’ distribution has completely gone quiet; deposits and withdrawals are fully balanced—standing by

3️ Reserves: 2.7265M (3-month high) → 2.7251M (first drop)
—— Inventories have only just begun to be digested, still 5,700 BTC higher than 8/26; the overhead supply pressure hasn’t been lifted

4️ Holding addresses: +36,195 (9/19 peak chase) → +14,817
—— The $81k chasers are now trapped; the ones catching the knife at $80k are still retail investors—whales didn’t catch it (compare 9/16: whales were buying at $75.6k; only when both whales and retail bought did it rebound)

🧭 Structural verdict: distribution hits the limit → ebb returns to zero → breaks down → the downtrend leg begins

Next stop: $79.4k → $77.7k
Decision point: weekly close (9/21 early 7:59) — if $82.8 holds above, the script is void; if it can’t hold, the escape-wave loop closes

💡 One sentence: The day with the strongest pump (net inflow +6,131) is the day with the hardest distribution; the day with the peak chase ( +36,195) is the hottest day at the top. Smart money has packed up; retail investors are still catching the knife.

#BTC #链上数据 #逃命波

[On-Chain Snapshot 9/18] Four Rounds of Base Defense: We Took the Position—But the Above Is the Distribution Window

Today BTC fought four rounds at the $77,678 base level; the bulls won: spike $77,715 → punched back → attacked again → spike $77,741 → punched back again → on the fourth wave, the position was taken; the 15-minute K-line closed at $77,797—.

But taking the base level ≠ a reversal; the on-chain evidence chain is laid out here:

① Net inflow +4,930, approaching the highest in the pre-judgment sequence—coins are flowing into exchanges
② Reserves 2.7194M, the highest since 8/26—exchange supply for the next three months is most fully stocked
③ Whale gap +129.8, the largest since 9/10—whales' deposits have overtaken withdrawals
④ Holding address increment shows a continuously decreasing trend (+27,621 → +7,431)—the hands receiving are shrinking

Put together in one sentence: price has moved above the base level, but above it $79.4–81.8k is stacked with the fullest three-month supply on top—every time price pushes up is an opportunity for the distributors to offload.
The historical script from 9/4: take the position → surge to $81.8k → distribution restarts → everything drops back.

My view remains unchanged: don’t chase when it takes the position; rallies = the distribution window; the main line stays the same on pullbacks—69–74k is the cheap zone (MVRV 1.29–1.38). Every additional percentage point of rise above the base level is someone selling to you.

Daily updates of on-chain data,

#BTC $BTC #链上数据

#原油 has been taken for half a month. Are you getting to the light at the end of the tunnel yet?

Absolutely mind-blowing—last night I just got beaten up by the enemy!！$ZEC

The outlook sent before 2:00 AM last night, now checking the answers.

The on-chain setup looked like this: net inflow +5,152. After the whale sequence broke to a new high, it then suddenly collapsed and flipped negative (-348). Whale outflows were -163 (the largest since 9/11). Holding addresses +27,621, hitting four consecutive new highs. My take:
The last move by the big players was withdrawals. The on-chain posture looked like the “night before a rebound.” Of the three scenarios, the one with the highest probability was “rate hike + hawkish dot plot” (~50–55%), and after they dumped, someone picked it up.

Actual results:

① Prediction hit: rate hike +25bp + dot plot 16/18 with more support to add again (2026 mid-value 4.125%) — hawk version confirmed
② Someone took over after the dump, hit: after the ruling, BTC first dumped to $75.1k, then V-reversed to $77.8k (+3.6%) — the same whale group that withdrew before the dump really caught the selloff; 9/2’s script replayed
③ Pullback also hit: failed to hold the post at $77.8k, then fell to $76.7k — distribution restarted (net inflow +4,030) suppressed the rebound, consistent with what I said: “rebound = the distribution window”

What didn’t hit: my V-reversal target was “rate hike + dovish dot plot” scenario ($77.7–79.4k). In reality, it was “rate hike + hawkish dot plot,” and it still V-reversed — because the probability of a rate hike in October is only 40.1%. The market absorbed the hawk narrative as “hawkish, but all priced in.” The dot plot was hawkish, but the gap (“door crack”) in October was wider than I expected.

Current position: BTC
Standing above the 9/2 low at $76.7k; on-chain net inflow is ebbing (- still net inflow retreat) (+1,085), and big players are withdrawing again (4.49x) — the 9/2 script’s rebound phase is still underway. Above, $77.7–79.4k remains the distribution window.

My conclusion remains unchanged: short-term churn ($74.7–77.7k), medium-term pullback as the main line (69–74k is the cheap zone; MVRV 1.32–1.42). The ruling can’t change the cycle, only the pace.

Next verification point: the October meeting. Let’s see how wide the “dot plot door crack” opens then.

#BTC #FOMC‬⁩ #链上数据 #复盘 $BTC

2 hours before the verdict, the on-chain whales have just finished casting their votes with their feet.

There are 2 more hours until the FOMC verdict, but in the last few hours of on-chain exchange flows, the overall vibe suddenly shifts:
① Net flow drops from +5,152 (a new high since 8/26) to **-348, turning negative** — coins start net flowing *out* of exchanges
② Whale deposit/withdrawal differential is **-163, the most negative since 9/11** — withdrawals surge and significantly overtake deposits
③ Holding addresses are **+27,621, setting a new all-time high for the fourth consecutive day** — even as it drops, more people keep buying
The last move the whales make is withdrawing coins, not depositing them. This posture last appeared on 9/2: during the big selloff, whales were picking up; after two days, there was a V-reversal of +4.4%. Today’s force is 6 times that of 9/2.
At 2:00 AM, the verdict. Three triggers:
│ Verdict │ Probability │ Path
Rate hike + hawkish dot plot (4.1%+) │ ~50-55% │ Sell-off $74.7k→$74k, but the withdrawal wave suggests people are there to catch after the dump │

Rate hike + dovish dot plot (3.8%) │ ~25-30% │ Bad news runs out and V-reverses $77.7-79.4k │

No change despite expectations │ ~10-15% │ Ammo turns into squeeze fuel—violent rebound

My take: the on-chain positioning looks like an "eve of a rebound," but the verdict is the one that pulls the trigger. Don’t guess—watch the data.

Which side are you betting on? Leave your call in the comments, and come back at 2:30 for the answer.

#BTC $BTC #FOMC‬⁩ #链上数据 #美联储

Quickly got out of it, and even the fees swallowed me—my losses are N times over😵😵#原油 $CL

FOMC showdown night—someone releases this number @CZ . How to interpret it? #BTC #FOMC‬⁩ #美联储加息是否已成定局 $BTC

On the eve of the Bitcoin ruling, on-chain “total mobilization” was filled to the brim:
The Clarity Act failed to pass—crypto’s independence narrative goes to zero, moving in the same direction as the Fed’s hawkish risk.
Three on-chain sequences appeared on the same day:
① Net inflow +4,677— the highest since August 26. The speed of coins rushing to exchanges hit a record, and reserves also climbed to their fullest in three weeks
② Whale deposits up +44% in a single day, with the withdrawal–deposit spread nearing +100 and the “acceleration line” speeding up—big players are moving inventory to exchanges
③ But the holding addresses +23,929, and at the $76k breakdown level there’s a big buyer waiting—no crash

The verdict comes at 2:00 a.m. tonight. Three ways this could trigger the market:
│ Verdict │ Probability │ Path │
1. Rate hike + hawk dot-plot (4.1%+ ) │ ~50-55% │ Supply detonates, slamming into $74k
2. Rate hike + dovish dot-plot (3.8% ) │ ~25-30% │ Bad news cleared and V-reversal, capping at $78k (with supply pressing down)
3. Unexpected unchanged / double dovish │ ~10-15% │ Ammo piled up becomes the fuel for a squeeze and violent rebound

One paradox: the fuller the ammo, the harder the rate-hike “hit”; but if it unexpectedly stays put, that same ammo stack becomes the fuel for the squeeze.

#BTC #FOMC‬⁩ #CLARITY法案 #链上数据 $BTC $ETH