The outlook sent before 2:00 AM last night, now checking the answers.
The on-chain setup looked like this: net inflow +5,152. After the whale sequence broke to a new high, it then suddenly collapsed and flipped negative (-348). Whale outflows were -163 (the largest since 9/11). Holding addresses +27,621, hitting four consecutive new highs. My take:
The last move by the big players was withdrawals. The on-chain posture looked like the “night before a rebound.” Of the three scenarios, the one with the highest probability was “rate hike + hawkish dot plot” (~50–55%), and after they dumped, someone picked it up.
Actual results:
① Prediction hit: rate hike +25bp + dot plot 16/18 with more support to add again (2026 mid-value 4.125%) — hawk version confirmed
② Someone took over after the dump, hit: after the ruling, BTC first dumped to $75.1k, then V-reversed to $77.8k (+3.6%) — the same whale group that withdrew before the dump really caught the selloff; 9/2’s script replayed
③ Pullback also hit: failed to hold the post at $77.8k, then fell to $76.7k — distribution restarted (net inflow +4,030) suppressed the rebound, consistent with what I said: “rebound = the distribution window”
What didn’t hit: my V-reversal target was “rate hike + dovish dot plot” scenario ($77.7–79.4k). In reality, it was “rate hike + hawkish dot plot,” and it still V-reversed — because the probability of a rate hike in October is only 40.1%. The market absorbed the hawk narrative as “hawkish, but all priced in.” The dot plot was hawkish, but the gap (“door crack”) in October was wider than I expected.
Current position: BTC
Standing above the 9/2 low at $76.7k; on-chain net inflow is ebbing (- still net inflow retreat) (+1,085), and big players are withdrawing again (4.49x) — the 9/2 script’s rebound phase is still underway. Above, $77.7–79.4k remains the distribution window.
My conclusion remains unchanged: short-term churn ($74.7–77.7k), medium-term pullback as the main line (69–74k is the cheap zone; MVRV 1.32–1.42). The ruling can’t change the cycle, only the pace.
Next verification point: the October meeting. Let’s see how wide the “dot plot door crack” opens then.
#BTC #FOMC #链上数据 #复盘 $BTC
The on-chain setup looked like this: net inflow +5,152. After the whale sequence broke to a new high, it then suddenly collapsed and flipped negative (-348). Whale outflows were -163 (the largest since 9/11). Holding addresses +27,621, hitting four consecutive new highs. My take:
The last move by the big players was withdrawals. The on-chain posture looked like the “night before a rebound.” Of the three scenarios, the one with the highest probability was “rate hike + hawkish dot plot” (~50–55%), and after they dumped, someone picked it up.
Actual results:
① Prediction hit: rate hike +25bp + dot plot 16/18 with more support to add again (2026 mid-value 4.125%) — hawk version confirmed
② Someone took over after the dump, hit: after the ruling, BTC first dumped to $75.1k, then V-reversed to $77.8k (+3.6%) — the same whale group that withdrew before the dump really caught the selloff; 9/2’s script replayed
③ Pullback also hit: failed to hold the post at $77.8k, then fell to $76.7k — distribution restarted (net inflow +4,030) suppressed the rebound, consistent with what I said: “rebound = the distribution window”
What didn’t hit: my V-reversal target was “rate hike + dovish dot plot” scenario ($77.7–79.4k). In reality, it was “rate hike + hawkish dot plot,” and it still V-reversed — because the probability of a rate hike in October is only 40.1%. The market absorbed the hawk narrative as “hawkish, but all priced in.” The dot plot was hawkish, but the gap (“door crack”) in October was wider than I expected.
Current position: BTC
Standing above the 9/2 low at $76.7k; on-chain net inflow is ebbing (- still net inflow retreat) (+1,085), and big players are withdrawing again (4.49x) — the 9/2 script’s rebound phase is still underway. Above, $77.7–79.4k remains the distribution window.
My conclusion remains unchanged: short-term churn ($74.7–77.7k), medium-term pullback as the main line (69–74k is the cheap zone; MVRV 1.32–1.42). The ruling can’t change the cycle, only the pace.
Next verification point: the October meeting. Let’s see how wide the “dot plot door crack” opens then.
#BTC #FOMC #链上数据 #复盘 $BTC
