Crypto爱玩币的村长

The public group I just created
Come on
Let's earn some money $BTC
$ETH

Have accumulated short positions for a full year
I’ve been bearish for the entire year
It’s also time to go up and clear the short positions
At 90900, you can liquidate 3.5 billion shorts
This is only for Big Cake
There are also large liquidations around 82500
As the market rises, more and more people who missed the move will join the shorts
$BTC

The big cake and Ethereum have perfectly reached the take-profit level.
Currently, the big cake and Ethereum have moved to the vicinity of the resistance level.
The resistance above the big cake is around 81,500.
Ethereum is around 2,670.
At the moment, as long as this resistance level is broken,
the space to the upside will open up again.
The market has been ranging here for such a long time.
Two major negative factors haven’t managed to push the price down.
So the probability of it going down is not high.
From a technical standpoint,
right now the moving average on the big cake’s 5-day line has again formed an upward-opening pattern.
So we expect the probability of a breakout to be relatively high.
Currently, the big cake and Ethereum have both broken above the 3-day MA120.
The market is gradually breaking through major-level moving averages.
The bull is back.
Congratulations to the friends who kept holding on.
The bull is back$BTC

Ethereum moved first
The big pancake also reduced its position
The big pancake has been set up for several days
Almost got forced into a stop loss
The current market should improve for a few days
It probably won’t continue to be choppy in this range
Ethereum is looking for an opportunity
For the big pancake and Ethereum right now, both are bullish $BTC

Today’s relatively important information is whether the “small daily life” will raise interest rates.
America has already raised rates.
If the “small daily life” doesn’t raise rates, America will drain them dry.
The “small daily life” originally is already a region with very low interest rates.
On top of that, crude oil prices are now high.
And due to the issue between Iran and Israel, crude oil has been tightened.
That’s adding insult to injury.
So I think the “small daily life” will raise interest rates.
If the “small daily life” raises rates, resistance to America’s extraction—pulling liquidity away—will be a slight short-term negative for U.S. stocks.
After America’s rate hike actually takes effect, yesterday U.S. stocks already recovered the earlier losses from the past few days.
U.S. stock index futures, especially Nasdaq futures, have broken above the trendline resistance near 29,500 again.
It is expected that although the “small daily life” rate hike may be a small negative, the impact will not be big.
Because the “small daily life” interest rates are still too low compared with America’s, so the effect is limited.
As for BTC and ETH: yesterday they didn’t rebound with U.S. stocks by much.
Currently, BTC is still around the 76,500 Fibonacci level.
Only if it holds above this level can it challenge 81,500 again.
However, the village chief still believes this level can be held.
In the near term, BTC will still test 81,500.
What we can determine right now is this:
The Federal Reserve’s future rate hikes will only be once.
Doesn’t that mean that going forward it’s all rate-cut expectations?
The bull market is arriving so gradually like this.
The market is buying expectations, $BTC

The Federal Reserve’s dot plot yesterday: there will be one more rate hike this year. The key point is 2027—rates are expected to be kept unchanged throughout the year. Starting in 2028, rate cuts begin. That means after the next hike, there will be no more hikes, and expectations going forward will all be favorable.$BTC

Ethereum vs Big Cake exchange rate
If Ethereum breaks above the weekly line's 120-day moving average,
Ethereum will enter a strong phase.
In recent years, the ETH exchange rate has been falling.
It only bounced back a bit this year.
After a weekly breakout, the downtrend will be broken.
Once Ethereum turns strong, everyone won't just be “a guard” anymore $BTC

The shoes have landed
The Federal Reserve has raised rates by 25 basis points
It is expected there will be one more hike within the year
The next rate decision will be in October
Maintain unchanged in 2027
Consider a rate cut after 2027
Bitcoin (the big pie) and Ethereum are still very strong
Two consecutive negative factors
But it still didn’t push the price down
Currently, Bitcoin is receiving strong support at the 5-day moving average MA62, around the 65,000 level
Ethereum is even stronger; even the Fibonacci level at 2350 hasn’t been broken
Two consecutive negative factors didn’t cause a major dip, which shows the bulls are still strong
As long as Bitcoin reclaims 66,500, the uptrend will restart
This year, although there will still be one more rate hike, it will be in October
There is still plenty of time
Also, before the rate hike, I’ve mentioned repeatedly
Rate hikes increase the risk of U.S. Treasury bonds
If the U.S. Treasury defaults, the credibility of the dollar will decline
Then funds will seek hedging targets
Commodity markets priced in USD will rise due to the reduced dollar credit
So, for Bitcoin, rate hikes are both good and bad
At least Bitcoin, as digital gold, has a need for hedging against risk
Currently, from the 5-day line and on a higher time-frame technical view, Bitcoin and Ethereum still look like a bullish pattern
So the main focus remains going long $BTC

An exciting week Ahead of the U.S. Senate’s “CLEAR Act” vote, the Democrats proposed and introduced a counterproposal to tighten encryption regulation. The bill ultimately failed to advance—so it didn’t get passed. Last night, Ethereum was hit and stopped loss was triggered. And early this morning, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision came. Today, the shoe drops. If Bitcoin takes another downward jab today, 75,000 is the key level—if it breaks, it should move toward around 72,000. Ethereum’s current key support zone is from 2,340 to 2,270; if that breaks, it’ll head toward 2,150. If there is a rate hike, the market may first dip with a wick, then after the bearish news is digested, the rebound can continue with a monthly-line-level uptrend. Right now, for this month’s chart, I still look at Bitcoin and Ethereum as bullish.

$BTC

The probability of Cme's rate hike has already exceeded 92%
The rate hike can be at most 25 basis points
Even if the negative news is already priced in
But the chances of a hike in September have been priced in
and the probabilities of hikes in October and November will also increase
If there is indeed a rate hike
then at the same time, the risk in U.S. Treasuries will offset the market's rate-hike negative news by $BTC

Yesterday we talked about the current outlook being bullish. As for the big coin, it’s adjusting around the support near 76,500. Late last night, the big coin rallied up to around 79,500, and now it has pulled back to around 78,000 again. The big coin was strong yesterday— even as the U.S. stocks fell, it didn’t follow. Ethereum yesterday moved up along with the big coin’s momentum, then also pulled back. The big coin is currently showing a trend of “bleeding” capital from the mainstream altcoins. When the big coin is absorbing liquidity, it generally means the probability of a breakout increases.

At the moment, the main resistance above the big coin is around 81,500 on the Fibonacci level. There’s also the 3rd moving average area around 80,500. Ethereum should move in sync with the big coin—just follow what the big coin does. If the big coin breaks out, Ethereum will likely follow as well. Once those two levels above the big coin break upward, the upside room opens. Following this adjustment structure and the W-shaped pattern: after a breakout, the next leg will need to be at least similar to the original upswing. So after the breakout, the next target is around 96,000. After reaching that target, it should then enter another consolidation phase.$BTC

Today's big cake (BTC) is very hard/firm, huh.
In the early session, it followed the US stock Nasdaq futures lower move, dipping to around the 76,500 support, and then it stopped falling along with the US futures.
Currently, US Nasdaq futures are around 29,000 points.
The big cake has rebounded to around 77,500.
Ethereum is around 2,510.
Is this about to kick off?
Is the market going to move into an independent trend?
Based on my past observations:
When BTC and ETH trade sideways, they usually just follow Nasdaq futures’ oscillations.
Whenever BTC and ETH stop tracking US Nasdaq futures, the market is about to enter a strong phase.$BTC

Just rubbing here
Just rubbing here
How long do we still have to grind?
Currently the “big cake” has tested support around 76,500 again
It’s quite solid—won’t break
On the whole weekly and daily chart, we currently have not closed below 76,500
This week the US Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting
Once the “shoe drops,” surely it won’t keep shaking like this, right?
This week should have the answer—whether it lives or dies
Today in the pre-market session, US stock Nasdaq futures pulled back again to around 29,000
It also returned to trade sideways around the support area
Right now the market is in a phase where longs and shorts are trading insults
Everything depends on how the Fed looks
Trump recently called for US stocks to go up
But US stocks didn’t really fly
At the moment, based purely on US stocks and the “big cake” technical pattern
it’s still biased bullish
Even if it drops, the downside should be limited
Go long
Looking for opportunities to go long is still the main theme $BTC

The most important things happen next Thursday
Importance is at maximum, five stars
The Federal Reserve (FOMC) will release its interest rate decision and the Summary of Economic Projections
The Fed Chair will hold a monetary policy press conference
The BTC/“big pancake” price has been churning above 76,500 for weeks
It feels like it’s been waiting for next week
Even U.S. stocks—and U.S. stock futures—have been stuck around 29,500 for a long time
In any case, I don’t think they’ll raise rates
Current inflation hasn’t risen much
But the risk to U.S. Treasuries is surging hard
Even Trump said that when they can’t repay the national debt, they would use the military proactively against the bonds
The Federal Reserve also has to consider that
Oil prices have been relatively high recently
Trump has to bring down oil prices
Trump also relies on suppressing oil prices to control inflation
So the Fed can cut rates $BTC

Woke up after a nap
And the big cake is back
Damn, the big cake didn’t leave—profits have come back, and drawdown is gone fast
The big cake is really a troublemaker now
It’s the weekend—back to the mandatory volatility day
Currently, Bitcoin is still above the 76500 Fibonacci 78.6 level
So it’s still above support
At the moment, the 3-day line and the weekly line for Bitcoin are both bullish
A classic pump-and-dump pattern
Still mostly long-biased, $BTC

Oh wow, I said CPI data would take off! Straight up winning. I bought Ethereum at 2580 and took profit—there’s still Bitcoin left. I’ll hold a bit longer to see. $BTC

The CPI is coming this evening
NY crude oil prices have been rising over the past few months
As crude oil is a major commodity input
the king of commodities
and the mother of commodities
it can still to a certain extent reflect inflation
So the seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month rate at the end of August should be very unlikely to be lower than the previous value by 0.1
The expectation is 0.4
The August crude oil price won’t be much higher than July
So the seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month rate at the end of August may be below expectations

The year-over-year CPI at the end of August after seasonal adjustment will cover the entire crude oil price movement from the bottom to the high point, with the previous value at 3.4 and the expectation at 3.4
The expected year-over-year rate is likely to be close to the expected value
Overall, the data trend should be mildly favorable or mildly unfavorable
The data should be close to expectations

Given crude oil’s current price, Trump should also come out to suppress crude oil and push the U.S. stock market down
So after today’s data is released
the market should rise #CPI数据来袭能否触发9月加息

The big pancake has become a stirrer. Ethereum has also become unbelievably strong. The big pancake is currently supported around 76,500, and it’s starting to grind there again. The US stock Nasdaq futures are also grinding around the 29,000 level supported by the weekly MA23. Tonight, CPI should mark a turning point. The inflation data tonight is crucial for whether the Fed will raise rates. If inflation rears its head a bit, the Fed chairman will be very hawkish. If tonight’s inflation data rises slightly and the data is relatively moderate, there’s a chance the bearish move will be priced in and then a rebound follows. If the inflation data rises particularly sharply, the adjustment will need to be bigger. $BTC

What a disgusting market. Bitcoin is just grinding around this support area. US stocks are also moving back and forth in small ranges around support. It looks like a breakout is likely soon. The market seems to be waiting for Friday’s CPI data. Right now, the Fed chair keeps talking about rate hikes every day, but whenever he actually speaks, it’s all uncertainty. It feels like he still doesn’t want to raise rates. If they do hike, the US government would really not be able to repay its debt. At the moment, BTC, ETH, and US stocks are all above their support levels. Especially the NASDAQ futures daily MACD fast and slow lines have been hovering around the zero line for a long time. At the bigger timeframe, the trend is still bullish. For the short term, it’s mainly about where the selling will stop. As long as BTC is above 76,500, the bulls are strong; as long as ETH is above 2,350, the bulls are strong $BTC

With the explosion of Ethereum Classic’s imitation coin rally
there will be more and more fake breakouts
back then, how hard the fakes dropped
this time, how strong the rebound will be
many fake coins, judging from the monthly chart, show a typical bearish divergence structure
I don’t need it to make new highs like ETH
but there is still quite some room for the rebound to reach the central range
yesterday I placed a lot of ETH buy orders
pulled it up slightly to the average price of the ETH long position for the BTC trade
BTC opened a bit higher
so I had to sell out; I then added BTC ($BTC )