Crypto爱玩币的村长

The public group I just created
Come on
Let's earn some money $BTC
$ETH

Today the big pie’s daily line is closing
The MA23 of the daily timeframe has finally come up to the top
This is also support around the MA5 of the 5-day line
You can see
multi-level support has formed a new trendline here
It also forms a new structure
The market’s trending nature far outweighs its reversal potential
Expect a new leg of upward move soon
Break through the resistance around 81500
And the upside room will open up
The probability of a pullback is really not high
The probability of breaking down below here is really not high
The US stock market is also just kind of dragging itself up now
Even though over the past few days the big pie looks a bit weak
This is shaking out people
The truck is too heavy—it has to shake people out
Now it should be shaking out almost enough
The current daily structure is very good
This daily area very likely will form an ascending continuation structure
Very likely it will be a W
After the breakout, it will start the second phase of上涨 $BTC

The view remains the same as yesterday and does not change.
Although today Bitcoin's price is lower than yesterday's big pancake’s price,
but it is still currently within the pattern.
You can look at the 4-hour chart: Bitcoin has once again pulled back to the trendline.
Ethereum is the same.
What’s more obvious with Ethereum is that near the trendline it formed a new small triangle structure.
So overall, the bias is still bullish.
Now let’s look at the U.S. stock market.
This morning, Trump called out oil.
The oil moved down after Trump’s call.
That would definitely be positive for the U.S. stock market.
Today, when the U.S. stocks open,
they should break out of this consolidation zone.
If U.S. stocks rise today,
Bitcoin should retest 82000 again. $BTC

Long positions are still in place
The weekly close is complete
The weekly indicators are continuing to rise
As I mentioned earlier, Bitcoin is currently being pushed upward by the 2-day moving average
The moving averages are forming an alligator mouth opening upward
At the very least, this pattern can still spike upward
Looking at the 4-hour charts of Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin is still inside the triangle consolidation pattern
Due to the support from a higher timeframe, after briefly breaking the trendline, it was pulled back by the higher-level support. That is the force of inertia
Ethereum, on the other hand, has already broken out of this pennant
And Ethereum’s exchange rate against Bitcoin is also rising right now
Overall, I still remain bullish
Yesterday I said that as long as the Nasdaq futures closed the week above 29300, the probability of a rise this week would be very high
Today Nasdaq futures closed above 29500
So U.S. stocks are also bullish
Looking at it this way, Bitcoin and Ethereum may resonate with U.S. stocks
So the probability of a breakout is very high
If this wave breaks out, it will surpass the previous rebound high
Market sentiment will improve further
The market will become even hotter
From the current reaction in altcoins, we can also see it
Altcoins are no longer lifeless
A lot of people are looking for a pullback here
They all think that only after returning to around 57000 will the bull market start again
What I want to say is
Don’t try to buy at the very bottom
When everyone thinks that way, it won’t get there
If it pumps straight from here
You won’t even see the taillights
By then, if you want to chase it, it may really already be at the top
This is also why most people lose money
They want to buy at the very bottom
And sell at the very top
Only by settling for something close enough can you make money$BTC

Very good
As expected
The market is slowly moving upward
Next Monday at 8 a.m. the weekly candle will close
U.S. Nasdaq futures are also the same
As long as Nasdaq futures close the weekly candle above 29300
Then U.S. stocks will rise next week
Bitcoin and Ethereum will also follow $BTC

If Bitcoin were going to fall, then the major altcoins would have already been crashing. It’s impossible for Bitcoin and Ethereum to be moving sideways today while the major altcoins are still being pushed up.
$BTC

Yesterday, the crypto and Ethereum markets were pushed down by the non-farm payroll data.
However, it’s not a big problem.
From a technical perspective, the 2-day and 3-day charts are still in a bullish pattern.
And the support is very close.
It’s right around 78,500.
On the macro side, although the probability of an interest rate hike has increased,
U.S. Treasury risk has risen further.
Right now, the macro factors are pulling against each other.
The risk in U.S. Treasuries is far greater than whether rates are hiked or not.
I specifically talked about this earlier.
The market will look for assets.
The best assets are gold and crypto.
Crypto being called digital gold is not just a joke.
Recent data shows that anything that raises the probability of an interest rate hike
also raises U.S. Treasury risk.
So overall, whether looking at the long-term trend or the current short-term move, it is bullish.$BTC

Also
Can you send me 100 BTC?
I was silent for $BTC

The big pancake went straight to the strategy’s take-profit level. Ethereum also broke above 2500. I took profit all through last night. Tonight, we have data—when the big pancake was pulled up to the resistance level, I increased the intensity for everyone again. As shown in the chart: the big pancake has resistance around the Fibonacci level near 72,000, and it also aligns with the MA120 on the 3-day line resistance. For Ethereum, it just broke out of the flag pattern; its resistance is a bit farther away. The big pancake is right on point—it's just at the right level, waiting for everyone to choose long or short positions. If you were the main force, what would you do? If I were the main force, I would follow the trend and blow up the shorts. Right now, it should be operating in a bull-return mode. Any bearish ideas should be discarded. Yesterday, I mentioned that looking at the U.S. stock weekly chart, it seems the correction may have already ended—U.S. stocks that will rise. Trump also called for it: Trump said U.S. stocks will go up, whether you believe it or not. So overall, the market is steady with a positive bias. Also, we’re about to enter the Dingyou month, and the metal’s suppression over water and fire pressure will further weaken. Mother bull is coming.

$BTC

This week’s market movement has been relatively sluggish. I reduced positions this morning, reduced positions again tonight. What’s left is just break-even and stop-loss with whatever happens. $BTC

The view is the same as yesterday.
Yesterday, the big Bitcoin/ETH fluctuations all pulled back again to test the lower trendline.
At the same time, it also coincides with the support from the 5-day moving average MA62.
In terms of the current pattern 👀 it’s nothing more than evolving from one flag pattern to another.
However, the longer it drags out here,
the stronger the breakout upward will be.
The logic is very simple:
slow pullbacks followed by sudden rises;
sudden rises followed by slow pullbacks.
How long the horizontal move is, how high the vertical move will be.
Sudden drops followed by slow rebounds.
Slow rebounds followed by sudden drops.
A fascinating art full of dialectics.
Yesterday, US stock Nasdaq futures also pulled back to test the weekly MA23 support around 28800.
The US market is also adjusting its pattern.
The US market currently can’t drop further.
Also, the conflict between Iran and Israel has very limited impact on the market right now.
The market has already built up immunity.
Look at Russia-Ukraine—no one’s paying attention either.
So, overall:
BTC/ETH flag-pattern consolidation, and the probability of breaking upward is very high $BTC

The market will infinitely amplify your personality weaknesses, and deliver a fatal blow to you at your most vulnerable moment $BTC

Last night, Bitcoin followed the US stock market, jumping up and down
The original flag pattern no longer holds
A new flag pattern has formed
At the moment, Bitcoin is trading around the 5-day MA62 line
And there is also the 6-hour MA62 about to move up, forming a new trendline
Ethereum is the same—it's also forming a new trendline around the 6-hour timeframe
Overall, the market is still moving along with the US stock market's range-bound volatility
The weekly support of the US stock Nasdaq futures is around 28800
It's actually very close
I expect that the adjustment for Bitcoin and Ethereum is pretty much over
Overall, the bias is still bullish
Because Bitcoin’s 5-day MA62 is support on a higher timeframe
It has already broken through and stayed there for a long time
This time is a retest of that support
It will go back up to $BTC

Why do most people lose money even in a bull market?
Only in a bull market
do they dare to add money.
Only in a bull market
do they dare to chase at the peak.
Because at this time
they don't think it's the peak,
and they still believe there's a bigger mountain$BTC

The big pancake weekly/monthly line cycle is finished.
The monthly line is forming very well.
A big bullish candle.
At the monthly level, the MACD fast and slow lines are also near the zero line.
Normally, around the zero line there will be major moves.
So over the next one or two months, there should still be a big行情.
Earlier, we discussed that Big Pancake is currently building structure within an uptrend.
Right now, the MA5 on the 3-day line has already risen.
It lines up perfectly with the trendline structure.
The continuation of the trend is far greater than the possibility of a reversal.
So we still look for a bullish bias here.
As long as the support at the 3-day line hasn’t caught up, there’s only a 12-hour support holding it up.
That’s enough to show the bulls are very strong.
Ethereum is the same: its MA5 on the 3-day line has also risen to the top.
We expect that recently, Big Pancake and Ethereum should break upward.
Many altcoins have also finished their corrections.
Ready to welcome the next wave of the market.
Overall, we are bullish on $BTC

In the past, in the present, and in the future, I will never let brief price swings make me lose my trading principles, nor will I ever allow my decisions to be driven by emotions.

I still believe in the market. I still believe my vision is limited, and my wisdom is insufficient.

I will make mistakes in picking sectors, miss opportunities, and—when I should exit—still be unwilling and cling to a bit of luck.

I accept my greed and my cowardice, and I also accept the outcomes brought by every trade.

But I believe in trading discipline, in position and risk control, and that the market will eventually deliver a fair answer.

Time will prove that blockchain—$BTC

It’s not necessarily true that once rates are raised, the market will inevitably crash.
The question is: how many big hands are fighting each other in the market?
At this moment, U.S. Treasury bonds have already broken through the $40 trillion mark.
In fiscal year 2026, interest expense alone will exceed $1.35 trillion.
That’s more than the entire annual defense budget by over $300 billion.
As the largest debt holder, the Federal Reserve.
Raising rates does put pressure on the price of existing U.S. Treasuries.
But what truly makes it cautious is this:
The more aggressive the rate hikes are, the more the interest expenses keep rolling over and growing.
Meanwhile, the dollar’s purchasing power is actually accelerated in being diluted.
So the Fed’s core concern has always been inflation and the dollar’s purchasing power—not whether U.S. Treasuries themselves might collapse.
This creates a paradox:
Rate hikes suppress U.S. Treasuries,
but they also suppress the dollar’s credit.
Rate cuts release liquidity,
but they may also let inflation flare up again from the ashes.
No matter which path it takes,
capital is searching for value anchors outside the U.S. dollar system.
Bitcoin and gold are the first to benefit.
Historical data speaks volumes.
In 2024, global central banks bought more than 1,000 tons of gold—setting a new record high.
Governments and sovereign institutions continue to adjust their foreign exchange reserve allocations, reducing U.S. Treasuries and increasing holdings of gold and a variety of other assets.
Even when 2024 maintained high interest rates,
Bitcoin still rose from about $45,000 to above $100,000.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to pull in fresh inflows.
To put it plainly:
That $40 trillion mountain of U.S. debt itself is the biggest positive catalyst.
Whether it’s the rate-hike or rate-cut “big pie” as the long-term main theme is for the value to rise $BTC