Crypto爱玩币的村长

The public group I just created
Come on
Let's earn some money $BTC
$ETH

Damn, you lot don’t recognize quality at all
Damn
I said today the US stocks would go up
Even though I don’t play individual US stock names
I do watch the index every day
Damn, I’m giving you obvious, clear bets
Damn
The traffic is terrible
And nobody pays attention to me
You all don’t recognize quality $BTC

The village head’s predictions were correct this time
Unemployment benefit numbers: 19.7
Inflation index: 3.3
Market reaction is not very strong
But overall the data is also favorable
The economy is strong
Inflation is decreasing
Traders will likely reduce the probability of further rate hikes
Favorable for the whole market $BTC

Notifications
Before today’s data
No matter what today’s news flow is like
The S&P 500 in the short term should be done falling
The S&P 500 should be set to rebound
Anyone who has been trading the S&P 500 recently should be able to get their money back $BTC

Notification
The script has already been written
America’s unemployment benefits data is back again
Given that there are still 2 days until the monthly line closes
After yesterday’s announcement from the Federal Reserve of no rate hike
Today this data has a very high probability of being favorable
Previous unemployment claims: 18.7
Unemployment claims expected: 20
It may come in within 20
The economy is strong
CPI previous value: 3.4
CPI previous value: 3.3
It may be within 3.3
Inflation is cooling
When you look at these two data points together
It means the economy is strong and inflation is falling
That’s definitely good news
Traders will reduce the probability of further rate hikes
The US stock market can rebound accordingly
To close the monthly line’s losses
Bitcoin and Ethereum should also rebound
That should be the script
At the very least, everything should meet expectations
$BTC

Notification
As expected
The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates
And as expected, Nasdaq stock index futures also dipped below 27500 briefly—then recovered above 27500 during the morning session
Stocks in the U.S. should have already finished the drop in the short term
The U.S. stock market should be entering a rebound cycle
As for Bitcoin, as shown in the chart
At the moment, Bitcoin is still very strong around the Fibonacci golden ratio 0.618 level
Ethereum is around the Fibonacci 0.718 level
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin is currently in a golden cross state
If Nasdaq futures in the U.S. enters a rebound cycle,
then Bitcoin will be affected too and should rise along with it at least a bit
Right now, Bitcoin and Ethereum are bullish
For one Bitcoin, supported by the Fibonacci 0.618 level, it has the potential to challenge 67000$BTC again

All positions have been cleared.
Today's long orders have also taken profit.
Recently, the strategy has been shifting direction quickly toward small profits.
Overall, we've been very profitable too.
As for whether the Fed will raise rates tonight, let's not talk about that yet.
What really brings the most uncertainty is Woz's speech.
There’s a good chance it will move up and down and spike both ways.
Let's place a limit order for you all.
In case it gets filled.
Missing the trade doesn’t mean you lost.
We’re not gamblers.
We’re hunters.
If a hunter doesn’t fire,
then he only misses one rabbit—but the bullets are still there.
But if he fires recklessly,
not only will he waste bullets, he'll attract wild beasts.
Missing trades costs you nothing.
But chasing price higher could make you lose everything.
As long as the bullets are still there,
opportunities are always there.
$BTC $ETH

Do you think there will be a rate hike at around 2 a.m. tonight’s second half?
I think it won’t be a hike.
If the U.S. stock market at this level raises rates, it’s basically like suicide.
Also, the U.S. and Iran have currently paused the war.
Raising rates during wartime is like a move in a game.
If there’s a ceasefire, what’s the point of raising rates?
Although they might raise rates later, I expect that they’ll do it during the fighting.
So starting tonight in the second half
the overall U.S. stock market $BTC has a relatively higher chance of an upside bounce.
$BTC

There was some time in the morning when things went quiet.
I originally was watching the pullback in U.S. stock futures.
But today during the day, U.S. stock Nasdaq futures have both dropped to around 27,600.
Bitcoin and Ether didn’t really fall much.
I took profit on the short, then flipped and went long.
Currently slightly up $BTC

Yesterday morning, after closing the short for profit, I entered another short
This morning, after taking profit on the short again, I entered a long
This morning, the long position also had all its profits taken
Recently, the closes haven’t met expectations, so it’s hard to directly reach the target price
I’ve been exiting as soon as there’s interim profit—the direction changes very quickly
Today, the closes for BTC, ETH, and also the U.S. stock market Nasdaq futures were all not as expected
At around 2:00 a.m. tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce whether they will raise rates or not, and there will be remarks
I don’t know whether they will raise rates or not
I also don’t know what they’ll say
But based on Nasdaq futures
It’s possible there will be another downward wick, pushing a bit lower
Yesterday, Nasdaq futures fell to around 27,650 and then rebounded
From a technical pattern standpoint, it would be more reasonable for the wick to dip to around 27,400
During today’s daytime session, Nasdaq futures are near 28,000
If there’s a wick, there should be about 600 points of room
ETH and BTC are similar
ETH has pulled back to the 1,900 resistance level
But BTC is still below 65,000
And on the daily chart, BTC’s price is below MA23 and MA62
So it’s expected that BTC and ETH will also follow Nasdaq and dip with another wick
After this wick pullback, there should be some time for a rebound $BTC

Netanyahu meets with Trump
Trump will also give a speech
A few days ago, on the weekend evening, Trump just drew a K-line near crude oil around 100 and went short crude oil while going long on the US stock market
The next day, Monday, due to the announcement of the listing of Changxin Kimi 3 open source and news about the Dongda new lithography machine, US tech stocks plunged
Why did Netanyahu come over?
He should be here to brief Trump and then help move things toward striking Iran
It feels like the probability of this being bearish is still relatively high today
Especially because Trump cares a lot about face
When he speaks alone, he might say some tough words
On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve will announce whether it will raise rates or keep them unchanged
We should wait until this news actually lands before Trump really pushes out good news and draws K-lines to go long on US stocks $BTC

The moment you realize
that “waiting” itself is making money
waiting is no longer torment
but an advantage

The trend of Nasdaq futures in the US stock market
basically just copies the earlier dip
at this point, it should fall for the last time and then hit the bottom
Don’t look at how BTC and ETH aren’t dropping during the daytime
at night or in the latter part of the night, it quietly comes down $BTC

Notification
Did the short position win?
Hahaha, it’s exactly the same as what I analyzed yesterday
There aren’t many bloggers as excellent as me
The US stock Nasdaq futures are currently around 28,000 points
But it probably isn’t done falling yet
I expect Nasdaq futures to touch around 27,500 before rebounding
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce whether it raises rates or keeps them unchanged
In the next few days, there will definitely be panic selling
Right now, today’s big BTC has closed its line
On the daily timeframe, the BTC MA23 and MA62 have crossed
The bigger timeframe has already been preparing for a rebound in advance
BTC’s current price is below the resistance level of 65,000
ETH is below the resistance level of 1,900
In the short term, it still looks like it needs to move downward
After adjusting in line with the US market
The trend will resonate with the broader market
Start a new round of rebound uptrend $BTC

There aren’t many bloggers as outstanding as me
I said clearly that the U.S. stock market will fall again this week
Today the U.S. stocks basically kneeled in a straight line
My short positions from yesterday are already closed out—haha

Mr. Xu made many people live the life he had when he was a child

This Thursday
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision
They've been calling for a rate hike for so long
And the data beforehand also supports a rate hike
But today, suddenly, news came out that Iran and the US have resumed a ceasefire
So chances of a direct rate hike this Thursday seem unlikely
However, whatever speech Waller gives will definitely be hawkish
This guy seems like, since taking office, he hasn't been dovish $BTC

Empty buy relief
Took two days of long orders
Last night overall broke even and ran flat
Hahahaha
Yesterday the exchanges announced closures one after another
So I got scared and ran
Not only did I run—I also flipped and went short empty
Damn it, Trump really did say what I said
In the second half of the night, release good news to draw candlesticks
Too many things on the news front—impossible to guard against everything
Today at 8 a.m., BTC/ETH will close against the U.S. stock weekly line
Judging from the weekly chart, U.S. stocks still need to fall
The U.S. stock market hasn’t finished adjusting yet
As of now, the U.S. stock weekly MACD indicator has just crossed above the zero line
So the probability that the U.S. stock weekly adjustment ends at this position is very low
BTC/ETH are currently forming many small candlesticks around the weekly MA23
The bulls are exhausted; for weeks they couldn’t break through
They didn’t even touch MA23
We need to follow the U.S. stock market’s pullback downward
At the moment, it looks like after BTC/ETH follow the U.S. stock market down for the adjustment, they will then follow with a rebound along with the U.S. stock market
Only then can BTC/ETH continue the weekly rebound
Sell when it spikes in the morning
$BTC

Big Pie $BTC ETH at this position
To be honest, there’s room both up and down
We’re back to the stage where long and short traders insult each other again, idiots
The village chief went from over 58,000 all the way to 66,500
Then reversed and took a short to quickly take profit and exit
At the moment, I’m holding a lot of ETH-long positions
Multiple sets for risk control
Where the village chief went long was this pattern—the first place where you can take a long
If this long position fails, then with this same pattern, you can still take another long below
The entry point needs to be in the 62,500 to 61,500 range
Damn it—just directly turn bullish and move up
I hate losing
Trump, come out quickly and draw the candlestick chart
Lately, stocks in the US have been falling while oil has been rising
Every time Trump gets around the 100 mark, he will short oil
Go long on US stocks
Trump, hurry up and get back to work $BTC

This year, it seems like Elon Musk’s bets and tickets aren’t that great either
$SPCX
Stocks, stocks—also not doing well
The big dog in the crypto world, doge, he also doesn’t have time to hype anymore
Rocket launches are being delayed every other day
Musk’s robots also aren’t that great
Tesla stock is also constantly making noise
I guess Musk is getting a headache every day
Right now, I think only Tesla still has some hope
After Tesla’s vision system makes a breakthrough and rolls out
The electric cars will get upgraded further
Then Tesla will be awesome—keer cla~$TSLAB

Damn the animals of that horse
Multiple rounds of rescue
The US stock market is really disgusting
A week drops 4 days
Bitcoin $BTC , yesterday it still couldn’t hold the top and got dragged down by the US stock market
Currently, from the daily chart, Bitcoin has pulled back to around the MA23 area
From the MACD fast and slow lines
Currently, the fast line and slow line are around the zero axis
The MACD is also near a turning-point area
Overall, it’s just that a breakout/turn is coming
So will it turn upward or downward?
The village chief still thinks the probability of turning upward is higher
Bitcoin might still dip a bit further
But once the short-term dip ends, it should turn upward and switch to an offensive mode
Because on the daily chart, these fast and slow lines are very likely to reject a further downward cross into a dead cross
Because this fast and slow line pair is above the zero axis and near the zero axis
Overall, it’s still about finding opportunities to go long $BTC