Cointelegraph

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) could bottom out at the $57,000 level in October 2026, despite rallying by more than 29% since the low of about $60,000 in February, according to Bitcoin investor and author Michael Terpin.

Terpin told Cointelegraph that his forecast is based on the “historical average” drawdown of about one year from a market cycle top, which was reached in October 2025 when BTC surged to an all-time high above $126,000, to the cycle bottom.

Bitcoin’s price needs to reclaim the $100,000 level for the bull market to resume, which will likely occur when the price falls below the 200-week moving average, a dynamic and critical support level, he said. Terpin added: 

“There’s certainly a chance of $100,000 this year, but unlikely. It would need to combine strong exchange-traded fund (ETF) buying with what Michael Saylor is already doing at Strategy, combined with an absence of liquidations from a sharp move down.”Michael Terpin expects Bitcoin to bottom out around the $57,000 level. Source: TradingView

The forecast comes as Bitcoin’s price hovers at about $77,987, and crypto assets continue to be pressured by volatile oil prices, the war in Iran and a lack of liquidity, as interest rates in the US remain unchanged. 

Current Bitcoin rally might be a fake out, says analyst

Ahead of this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC), 99.5% of traders expect no interest rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The target rate probabilities ahead of the April FOMC meeting. Source: CME

“Wednesday is (Jerome) Powell's almost certain last FOMC meeting as Fed Chair. The Rate decision is almost certainly a hold flat,” market analyst Nic Puckrin said. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's term as head of the central bank ends next month.

The lack of “euphoria or interest” from crypto market investors amid the Bitcoin rally since February signals that investors view it as a limited rally, with a return to the downside expected, according to crypto market analyst Matthew Hyland.

“It does appear to me the larger expected consensus outcome for BTC is another leg lower by October,” he said on Saturday. Bitcoin’s price could also fall to the $73,000 level in the short term, according to Cointelegraph analysts.

If the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) continues to be a resistance zone for Bitcoin’s price, this could also force prices to retrace to about $65,710, according to Rekt Capital.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt

Michael Saylor, the co-founder of Strategy, the largest Bitcoin treasury company, as measured by total BTC holdings, signaled that the company will be boosting those holdings in the coming days.

Saylor shared a chart of the company’s Bitcoin purchase history, showing 107 BTC transactions since 2020, which has previously signaled an impending purchase.

Less than a week ago, Strategy completed its most recent BTC buy, purchasing 34,164 coins for more than $2.5 billion, bringing its total holdings to 815,061 BTC, valued at about $63.6 billion using spot market prices at the time of publication, according to the company.

Strategy's BTC purchase history. Source: Strategy Tracker

To be sure, Strategy's treasury far outpaces others pursuing a similar plan. Twenty One Capital, the second-largest publicly traded BTC treasury company, holds only 43,514 BTC, according to BitcoinTreasuries.

The company continues accumulating BTC, acting as an anchor buyer. Strategy’s BTC demand is outpacing the newly mined supply threefold, a rate that could potentially cause a supply shock if the number of coins left on exchanges continues to dwindle, according to BTC advocate Samson Mow.

As unrealized losses top $14.5B, still on track for 1M BTC treasury

The Tysons Corner, Virginia company reported an unrealized loss of $14.5 billion for the first quarter of 2026 after the price of Bitcoin plummeted from a high of more than $126,000 in October 2025 to a low of about $60,000 in February 2026.

Strategy’s average cost of acquisition is about $75,528 per BTC, according to the company. However, its BTC treasury is back above water, as the spot BTC market price at the time of publication has surged to more than $78,000.

End-of-year projections for Strategy's corporate BTC treasury. Source: Adam Livingston

Bitcoin advocate and Strategy investor Adam Livingston forecast that the company is on track to accumulate a total of 1.2 million BTC by the end of 2026.

The company’s Bitcoin purchases will be fueled by capital raised from its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC), a yield-producing credit instrument, Livingston said, adding, “Bitcoin's price will be driven to $1 million via this mechanism.”

Sounding a note of caution on Strategy's plan, however, is Seeking Alpha blogger Rida Morwa. "MSTR is issuing preferred equity like it is going out of style, and its plan is to either keep issuing equity or to sell its assets to pay the dividends," he said last week. "This would be a wonderful plan if you knew that Bitcoin is going to be $100,000 next year."

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation: Santiment founder

Litecoin, a layer-1 proof-of-work (PoW) blockchain network, was hit by a “zero-day” vulnerability on Saturday, which caused a 13-block reorganization of the chain, according to the Litecoin team, while other developers say the bug may have been previously known.

The bug caused a denial of service (DoS) attack on mining pools with newly updated software, suppressing their hashing power, according to an update from the Litecoin team.

This allowed older nodes to “peg out” coins to decentralized exchanges and cross-chain swap protocols, resulting in invalid transactions being posted to the network’s MimbleWimble Extension Blocks (MWEB) privacy layer, according to the team.

The updated nodes eventually regained control of the network’s hashing power, executing a 13-block reorganization that reversed the invalid transactions, which will not appear on the main chain. The bug has now been fully patched, the Litecoin team said.

Source: Litecoin on X

The incident comes amid an uptick in zero-day vulnerabilities -- that is, potential code exploits that are unknown to the software developers launching the product -- as AI systems like Anthropic’s Claude Mythos outperform human beings at identifying such attack surfaces.

Some may have had advanced knowledge of software bug

A Binance address funded the attacker earlier in the week, suggesting that they had pre-planned the attack and had knowledge of the code exploit beforehand, according to Alex Shevchenko, co-founder of Aurora, a layer-2 scaling network. He said:

“The fact that protocol automatically handled the reorg once DoS stopped, which is great, means that some portion of the hashrate was actually running an updated code. Thus, this bug was known, and it's not a zero-day.”

“The timing and targeting suggest this wasn't a random opportunity,” blockchain developer Vadim said in response, adding, “Low hashrate layer 1’s are not safe collateral for cross-chain value anymore.” 

Source: Vadim (@zacodil on X)

Cross-chain bridges, which transfer digital assets between different blockchain protocols, have long been a major attack surface in crypto, causing billions of dollars in losses over the years.

The most recent high-profile example of a bridge exploit was the April 18 attack on the Kelp restaking protocol, which earlier this month left the platform drained of about $293 million.

Magazine: AI-driven hacks could kill DeFi — unless projects act now

The recent crypto market downturn has forced more than one in three crypto traders to cut everyday spending, according to a new survey by CEX.IO.

The survey, conducted among 1,100 US-based active CEX.IO users, shows the current market slump is straining household finances, though it remains less severe than 2022, when Bitcoin fell by roughly 75% from its peak. Bitcoin is still about 40% below its October 2025 high, leaving many retail investors sitting on unrealised losses.

36% of respondents said they reduced everyday spending as a direct result of market conditions, with 10% describing those cuts as significant sacrifices made to maintain their positions. 37% also reported delaying or cancelling purchases due to crypto losses, including 21% who postponed major financial commitments such as buying a home, car or undertaking renovations.

Source: CEX.IO

“The 2025–2026 bear market has not produced the kind of systemic shock seen in past cycles (at least for now), but its effects appear to be showing up in quieter ways at the household level,” CEX.IO wrote.

Crypto traders navigate downturn alone

The survey revealed that many traders are managing the downturn in relative isolation. Only 5% said someone else knows the full extent and value of their holdings, while the majority either share limited information or keep their positions entirely private.

Financial strain is also evident in cash flow trends. While 77% said they did not take on debt tied to crypto, 38% reported some form of financial disruption since October 2025. A quarter said they relied on savings to maintain stability, and 12% admitted to missing or delaying payments.

Source: CEX.IO

Even so, most respondents have not changed plans dramatically. Nearly half reported that crypto makes up more than 30% of their investable assets, yet 73% said their approach to earning income remains unchanged.

Looking ahead, a combined 79% said they plan to either hold or increase their positions over the next six months.

Crypto offerings shape bank choice

Another survey by Börse Stuttgart Digital earlier this week found that cryptocurrency services are starting to influence how European investors choose their banks, with 35% saying they would consider switching institutions for better crypto offerings.

The poll of around 6,000 investors across Germany, Italy, Spain and France also found that nearly one in five expects their primary bank to provide crypto access within three years, pointing to a gradual shift toward integrating digital assets into mainstream banking.

Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

The Ethereum Foundation has moved to unwind part of its staking position shortly after nearing its stated goal of 70,000 staked ETH.

On Saturday, the Ethereum Foundation unstaked 17,035.326 ETH, worth roughly $40 million, according to Arkham data. The move involved depositing wrapped staked ETH (wstETH) into Lido’s unstETH contract, with ETH expected to be returned once the withdrawal queue completes.

In Ethereum, unstaking is the process of withdrawing ETH that was previously locked to help secure the network through validators. When ETH is staked, it’s deposited into the Ethereum Beacon Chain, where it remains locked while earning rewards. To unstake, a withdrawal request is initiated, and the funds enter a queue period after which the funds are released.

Source: Arkham

The Ethereum Foundation has not yet revealed why it unstaked 17,000 ETH, prompting some users to speculate it could be preparing to sell. “The biggest seller of ETH continues to be the people who created ETH,” one user wrote.

Ethereum Foundation nears 70K staked ETH goal

The EF started staking ETH after updating its policy in June 2025. At the time, the foundation said that staking and decentralized finance participation would help fund protocol research, development and ecosystem grants.

Since February, the foundation has steadily expanded its position, staking 2,016 ETH initially, followed by 22,517 ETH in March. Earlier this month, the foundation staked more than 45,000 ETH in a series of transactions, bringing the total to around 69,500 ETH, just shy of its internal 70,000 ETH staking target.

However, concerns remain over governance risks. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has cautioned that large-scale staking by the foundation could complicate neutrality during potential contentious hard forks, where competing chains may emerge.

DeFi protocols unite to back rsETH

As Cointelegraph reported, decentralized finance protocols have joined forces to stabilize rsETH after a $293 million exploit on the Kelp restaking platform triggered market disruption. The incident involved hackers stealing over 116,000 restaked ETH tokens and using them as collateral to borrow funds, leaving roughly $195 million in bad debt on Aave and straining the broader DeFi lending market.

Backers have pledged over 43,500 ETH (around $101 million) in a coordinated “DeFi United” effort led by Aave, with participation from Lido DAO, Golem Foundation and major contributions from EtherFi Foundation and Mantle.

Magazine: Ethereum’s Fusaka fork explained for dummies: What the hell is PeerDAS?

Donald Trump’s official TRUMP memecoin extended its decline on Saturday, even as he hosted a closed-door gathering for top holders of the cryptocurrency at Mar-a-Lago.

The token is currently trading at around $2.67, down by nearly 10% over the past day, according to data from CoinMarketCap. It is also down by more than 96% compared to its all-time high of $75.35 registered in early 2025.

The downturn comes despite efforts to maintain visibility through high-profile events. The Saturday event brought together 297 of the largest TRUMP investors for what was billed as the “most exclusive” crypto and business conference, with a smaller group of 29 attending a VIP reception and champagne toast, according to The Independent.

A previous event tied to TRUMP holders took place in May last year, when Donald Trump organized an earlier contest-style gathering at the Trump National Golf Club in Potomac Falls, Virginia, for the top 220 holders of his memecoin.

Trump family crypto ventures generate millions

In a report last year, Reuters claimed that the Donald Trump family generated more than $800 million from crypto asset sales in the first half of 2025, with total income reaching about $864 million. Crypto ventures made up over 90% of that revenue, per the report.

A large portion came from World Liberty Financial, which delivered roughly $463 million in token sales. The family also earned about $336 million from the TRUMP memecoin.

Source: Simon Dedic

Beyond realized income, the Trump family holds potentially billions more in unrealized gains, with total crypto-related earnings potentially exceeding $1 billion, Reuters estimated.

US Senators raise conflict concerns over Trump memecoin event

Earlier this month, Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal and Adam Schiff reportedly sent a letter to Bill Zanker, the figure behind the TRUMP memecoin, questioning whether the conference is being used to imply access to Donald Trump. The lawmakers raised concerns that promotion of the event may be tied to boosting purchases of the token.

“[O]rganizers are promoting a conference by dangling access to President Trump to potential attendees (and in doing so, are encouraging purchases of his meme coin that will generate transaction fees for the President and his family) on a day he may not actually be able to attend,” the letter said.

Magazine: Quitting Trump’s top crypto job wasn’t easy: Bo Hines

Evan Tangeman, a 22-year-old resident of California, was sentenced on Friday to 70 months in prison for his role in a criminal enterprise that stole about $263 million in cryptocurrencies from victims through social engineering scams and burglary.

Tangeman pleaded guilty to the charges in December 2025 and admitted to helping members of the criminal organization launder at least $3.5 million in illicit funds, according to the US Department of Justice’s (DOJ) announcement.

He also received three years of supervised release in addition to his prison sentence for his role in the scheme, the DOJ said. 

“This criminal enterprise was built on greed so brazen it borders on the cartoonish. They stole millions, spent it on half-million-dollar nightclub tabs, Lamborghinis, and Rolexes,” Jeanine Pirro, the US attorney for the District of Columbia (DC), said. She added:

“Evan Tangeman didn't just launder the money that fueled that lifestyle. When his co-conspirators were arrested, he moved to destroy the evidence. That is consciousness of guilt, and this office and the court have treated that accordingly."

Source: US Attorney for Washington, DC

The sentence comes as losses from crypto scams and hacks reached $482 million in Q1 2026 amid an uptick in criminal organizations targeting crypto users through online social engineering scams and violent physical attacks.

France grapples with rise in violent wrench attacks

France has experienced a sharp rise in wrench attacks, which are violent physical assaults and burglaries targeting crypto users, in 2026, according to Pavel Durov, co-founder of the Telegram messaging platform.

There have been 41 kidnappings of French crypto holders in the first quarter of 2026 alone, Durov said in an X post.

He attributed the rise in violent theft to tax data leaks that expose the holdings and identities of crypto holders in the country and accused French officials of selling this tax data to organized criminals.

Source: Pavel Durov

Speaking at Paris Blockchain Week in April, Jean-Didier Berger, minister delegate to the interior minister of France, said the government would roll out “preventative measures” to mitigate the number of wrench attacks in the country.

Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

Several members of the Bitcoin community cast doubt on the US government’s understanding of the Bitcoin network after a high-ranking military official told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that the US government runs a Bitcoin node.

“Our research into Bitcoin is as a computer science tool. It's the combination of cryptography, a blockchain, and a proof of work,” US Navy Admiral Samuel Paparo told the Senate Armed Services Committee. 

Bitcoin educator and advocate Matthew Kratter said that it sounded like the admiral was reading from the Bitcoin “Wikipedia page,” casting doubt on Paparo and US Senator Tommy Tuberville’s knowledge of the protocol. Kratter added:

“This is actually pretty embarrassing. These two guys are talking about something they don't understand. And when he says that, it's a way of ‘projecting power,’ or that it's a ‘computer science tool,’ he never really talks about what he means.”

“All I could think is they're saying absolutely nothing,” Kratter continued. Lola Leetz, a journalist at The Rage, said that Paparo’s Senate testimony was “babbling.” 

Samuel Paparo testifies before the US Senate Armed Services Committee. Source: US Senate Armed Services Committee

The testimony followed the Iranian government's announcement that it would accept Bitcoin for shipping tolls through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which about 20% of the global oil supply passes, strengthening BTC’s case as a strategic asset. 

Current geopolitical tensions highlight the role of Bitcoin as a strategic asset

Iran’s government is accepting oil tolls in Chinese Yuan, US dollar-pegged stablecoins and Bitcoin, but prefers dollar-pegged stablecoins, Sam Lyman, head of research at digital asset advocacy organization Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI), told Cointelegraph. 

However, stablecoins can still be frozen at the smart-contract level by the issuer, Lyman said, whereas Bitcoin cannot be frozen because there is no central issuer. 

Transactions carried out by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps account for nearly half of the total crypto market volume in Iran. Source: BPI

“This is one of the most significant situations where Bitcoin is very clearly a strategic asset,” he told Cointelegraph.

“The reason why Iran wants to use Bitcoin for these transactions is that no one can freeze Bitcoin. No one can shut down the Bitcoin network,” he added. 

Magazine: Is China hoarding gold so yuan becomes global reserve instead of USD?

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a lawsuit against New York to stop the state from applying its gambling laws to federally regulated prediction market platforms, escalating a growing clash over who has authority to oversee these products.

In a complaint lodged in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, the CFTC argued that federal law gives it exclusive authority over these markets, asking the court for a declaratory judgment and a permanent injunction against New York’s enforcement actions.

“CFTC-registered exchanges have faced an onslaught of state lawsuits seeking to limit Americans’ access to event contracts and undermine the CFTC’s sole regulatory jurisdiction over prediction markets,” CFTC Chair Michael Selig said.

Earlier this week, New York filed suits against Coinbase and Gemini, claiming their offerings violated state gambling rules. The state had also previously targeted Kalshi, ordering it to halt parts of its sports-related contracts.

States say federal law doesn’t legalize sports betting

On Friday, a coalition of 37 states and Washington, D.C. filed an amicus brief supporting Massachusetts in its case against Kalshi, urging Massachusetts’ highest court to reject Kalshi’s argument that federal law allows it to offer sports betting nationwide without following state rules.

Kalshi argues its betting products are “swaps” regulated by a federal agency under a 2010 financial law. The states say that law was never meant to legalize or control sports betting and does not clearly override state authority, which has historically governed gambling.

37 states back Massachusetts in amicus brief. Source: New York Gov

The states also argue that removing state oversight would weaken protections. State laws currently handle licensing, age limits, fraud prevention, and gambling addiction, which are areas not covered by federal financial regulation.

States ramp up crackdown on prediction markets

State officials have taken a more aggressive stance against prediction markets in recent months, issuing cease-and-desist letters and pursuing legal action against firms offering prediction contracts.

States like Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois are seeking to enforce gambling laws against prediction platforms. Earlier this month, a Nevada judge extended a ban preventing Kalshi from offering event-based contracts in the state, siding with regulators who argue the products amount to unlicensed gambling.

Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

Bitcoin (BTC) risked a return to $73,000 as the weekend began after bulls failed to reclaim a key trend line.

Key points:

Bitcoin price analysis increasingly sees $73,000 getting retested in the short term.

A weekly trend line has stayed in place as resistance since October 2025.

Bearish BTC price forecasts keep sub-$60,000 in play — even with a weekly close above resistance.

$73,000 in focus as BTC price retracement zone

Data from TradingView showed Bitcoin’s 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) refusing to give up control of BTC price resistance.

The moving average, which BTC/USD has traded below since October 2025, sat at $78,400 on the day.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting, trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that continued rejection at the 21-week EMA would result in a reversal to retest local lows.

“Bitcoin continues to resist from the 21-week EMA (green),” he wrote in an X post alongside an explanatory chart, repeating earlier concerns. 

“Unless BTC is able to reclaim the 21-week EMA as support... Then this EMA could indeed force BTC into a post-breakout retest of the top of the Double Bottom price broke out from last week.”

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

As Cointelegraph reported, the resistance forms one side of Bitcoin’s bull market support band.

Bitcoin still risks a sub-$60,000 comedown

Continuing, trader Killa, long bearish on the BTC price outlook, had fresh bad news for bulls.

Even a close above resistance at $80,000 or higher, they argued, might not be enough to save BTC/USD from new macro lows under $60,000.

“With the monthly close next week, volatility and fakeouts are likely. If May opens strong and pushes higher early in the month, there’s a good chance that move could mark the pivot high before a bearish May follows,” an X post on Friday read. 

“Either way, a close above resistance does not always mean true acceptance. In a broader macro downtrend, breaks above key levels can often be used to trap late positions.”

BTC/USD chart with key nearby levels. Source: Killa/X

Killa added that there was a “strong chance” of price revisiting $73,000. 

Brazilian authorities have moved to shut down 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket.

The decision, announced Friday, follows a directive from the Ministry of Finance and enforcement by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), according to state-owned news outlet Agência Brasil. Authorities claimed that such services fall outside Brazil’s current legal framework and therefore operate illegally.

“We have been monitoring the evolution of this sector in Brazil, which suffered a period of anarchy because there were no rules, no oversight, from 2018 to 2022,” Finance Ministry executive secretary Dario Durigan reportedly said during a press conference at the Palácio do Planalto.

The crackdown follows Resolution 5.298 issued by Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) on Friday, which takes effect in early May and sharply limits what prediction market platforms can offer. Under the new rules, contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events are banned, as authorities consider them closer to gambling than financial investments.

Only contracts linked to economic indicators, such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, or commodity prices, will remain allowed and fall under financial market oversight.

Brazil flags prediction platforms as debt risk

Durigan claimed that prediction markets could deepen household debt and expose users to financial harm. “At a time when we are working to reduce debt levels among families, small businesses, and students, we must also prevent new forms of harmful indebtedness,” he said.

The blocked platforms include a mix of international and Brazil-focused services, with major names including Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood (via its forecasting feature) and Fanatics Markets.

Banned prediction markets in Brazil. Source: Agência Brasil

Other affected platforms include ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange and Stride, alongside several Brazil-focused services such as Palpita, Cravei, Previsao, and MercadoPred.

More countries ban prediction markets

A growing number of jurisdictions have moved to ban prediction markets, often folding them into gambling or financial regulations. Several European nations, including France, Belgium and the Netherlands, have blocked or penalized platforms operating without authorization.

In the United States, the situation is more fragmented, with an ongoing tug-of-war between federal regulators and individual states over prediction markets.

Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

XRP (XRP) has rallied more than 30% in the last three months, and fresh technical and on-chain signals suggest the XRP/USD pair may have more upside ahead.

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Key takeaways:

Exchange outflows, positive whale flows and strong ETF demand raise XRP’s bullish outlook.

A wedge setup sees the price rising roughly 30% by June.

Nearly 35 million XRP in exchange outflows boost upside case

As of Saturday, XRP Ledger (XRPL) had recorded nearly 35 million XRP in exchange outflows in the last 24 hours, logging its sixth-largest daily outflow of the year, according to Santiment.

Large exchange outflows typically suggest investors are moving tokens into private wallets or custody, reducing the amount of XRP immediately available for sale. Earlier this year, these spikes preceded modest rallies in the XRP price.

XRP Ledger exchange outflows versus XRP price. Source: Santiment

In March, a similar spike in exchange outflows preceded a roughly 20% rebound in XRP. February’s outflow surge was followed by an even stronger move, with XRP rising about 48&–50%.

Those precedents strengthen the view that the latest withdrawal spike may lead to higher XRP prices in May.

Also, US-based spot XRP ETFs have witnessed three consecutive weeks of net inflows, totalling about $82.88 million as of Saturday, according to SoSoValue data. The streak pushed the total assets under management to $1.1 billion.

XRP ETF weekly net flows. Source: SoSoValue

This indicates an increased institutional appetite for XRP products.

Positive whale flows reinforce upside sentiment

XRP whale flows have also flipped positive, according to CryptoQuant data, suggesting larger wallets are now accumulating rather than distributing.

The 90-day moving average of XRPL whale flows has moved back above zero after spending much of early 2026 in negative territory.

XRP whale flow 30DMA. Source: CryptoQuant

Historically, positive whale-flow regimes have preceded stronger XRP price trends, including the May–July 2025 rally.

The shift supports the broader accumulation narrative already visible in exchange outflows and ETF inflows.

XRP wedge setup hints at 30% rally next

XRP’s technical structure supports the upside case.

The XRP/USD pair has spent the past two years inside a falling wedge, defined by two downward-sloping, converging trend lines. Its April rebound from the lower trend line support now raises the odds of a move toward the upper boundary.

XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

That target zone aligns with the 50-week EMA and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $1.87–$1.89, about 30% above current levels, by June.

Conversely, a decisive break below the wedge’s lower trend line risks invalidating the bullish narrative altogether.

It may instead raise the odds of the price declining toward the $0.98 mark, aligning with the wedge’s apex point and the 0.786 Fib line.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have extended their inflow momentum through late April, notching a nine-day streak amid growing investor conviction.

During the period, which spanned April 14 and April 24, total net inflows reached roughly $2.12 billion, with the strongest single-day performance on April 17, when funds attracted $663.91 million. April 14 and April 22 also posted robust gains of $411.50 million and $335.82 million, respectively.

The weakest day came on Friday, with a more modest $14.45 million in net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT led the day with $22.88 million in inflows. In contrast, Fidelity’s FBTC recorded outflows of $1.69 million, while Bitwise’s BITB and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB saw withdrawals of $8.85 million and $9.02 million, respectively. Other funds, including Grayscale’s GBTC and smaller products, reported largely flat flows.

The April streak is the first nine-day run for spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs since a similar run in October, when inflows surged, including $1.21 billion on Oct. 6 and $875.6 million on Oct. 7.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs see 9-day inflow streak. Source: SoSoValue

The sustained inflows also come alongside a strengthening Bitcoin market, with BTC currently trading at $77,516.55, up 10.73% over the past month, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin ETF investors hold firm

The recent steady stream of capital has pushed flows back into positive territory for 2026, with cumulative total net inflows reaching $58.23 billion.

This trend comes even as Bitcoin remains about 35% below its record high reached in early October, ETF analyst Nate Geraci wrote in a recent post on X. He said this pattern suggests that ETF investors are taking a longer-term approach rather than reacting to short-term volatility. The continued inflows during a market drawdown point to a more resilient investor base, often described as “diamond hands” in crypto circles.

“ETF investors proving to be longer-term allocators,” he wrote.

Ether ETFs see strong inflows

US spot Ether (ETH) ETFs also maintained a strong inflow streak from April 14 through April 22, posting nine consecutive days of net positive flows. However, the streak was broken on April 23, when funds recorded net outflows of $75.94 million.

During the nine-day run from April 14 to April 22, total inflows were consistently solid, with the strongest single-day performance on April 17, when Ether ETFs attracted $127.49 million. Other standout sessions included April 22 with $96.44 million and April 20 with $67.77 million.

Magazine: AI-driven hacks could kill DeFi — unless projects act now

Key takeaways:

A whale linked to asset manager Fasanara Capital holds a $38 million crypto short position, but will it impact Bitcoin’s price?

Negative futures funding rates at Binance and Bybit point to unusual demand for bearish positioning despite BTC’s recent price gains.

Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to trade above $78,000 on Friday, but the overall setup remains bullish. BTC gained 29% since the $60,100 yearly low on Feb. 6, and many analysts believe it is on the verge of a longer-term breakout. At the same time, a bearish Bitcoin whale on Hyperliquid exchange has maintained a large short position. The whale has made $159 million in profits over the past seven months. Does its positioning provide any signal that the market should pay attention to? 

Hyperliquid whale profit and loss data. Source: CoinGlass

The entity behind address 0x7fda…c517d1 (also known as BobbyBigSize) on Hyperliquid exchange excelled during the market crash between October to November 2025 by placing leveraged short bets on Ether (ETH), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Avalanche (AVAX), and Fartcoin, among others. The account has failed to sustain its gains, resulting in a $561,000 loss over the past 30 days.

The whale is bullish on ETH, but bearish on BTC and altcoins

Using algorithmic trading, the whale opened short-duration long positions in Bitcoin and Solana (SOL) in the past, resulting in a staggering $11 billion in trades on Hyperliquid exchange. BobbyBigSize currently holds $19.4 million in assets deposited on the platform. 63% of its trades result in positive outcomes, which is considered highly successful.

BobbyBigSize’s current positions, USD. Source: Hyperdash

Currently, BobbyBigSize holds a $38 million short position in BTC and multiple altcoins. The trader also opened a $21 million leveraged long ETH position last week, indicating short-term confidence. Generally, the portfolio positioning is bearish, suggesting an expectation of a short-term correction.

The average trade duration for BobbyBigSize has been slightly longer than two weeks, while the median position has lasted for less than four days, according to Hyperdash data. Arkham data previously linked this address to Fasanara Capital, a London-based institutional asset manager. The company reportedly manages over $5 billion in assets.

Source: X/Arkham

According to Fasanara Digital’s website, it launched in 2018 and manages $400 million across market-neutral strategies and venture investments. In parallel, a quantitative multi-manager approach in various liquid markets manages $150 million. However, the strategy behind the fund’s approach to cryptocurrency was not clearly specified.

Hyperliquid DEX annualized funding rates. Source: Hyperliquid.xyz

Funding rates for BTC and ETH stood slightly positive on Hyperliquid, indicating moderate demand for leveraged long positions. Under neutral circumstances, longs pay 6% to 12% annualized rates to maintain their positions. Currently, funding rates are negative on Binance and Bybit, signaling unusually high demand for bearish leverage.

Algorithmic traders are erratic and unpredictable, and losses by “BobbyBigSize” over the past couple of months evidence that no single trading strategy lasts indefinitely. However, this whale’s bearish positioning aligns with the increased demand for leveraged short positions; therefore, Bitcoin traders should not discard the possibility of a retest of the $75,000 level.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned several wallets tied to Iran, resulting in authorities freezing $344 million in cryptocurrency.

In a Friday X post, Bessent said that the move by OFAC was part of the US’ efforts to “systematically degrade Tehran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds.” The US and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran in late February.

“We will follow the money that Tehran is desperately attempting to move outside of the country and target all financial lifelines tied to the regime,” said Bessent.

Source: Scott Bessent

The Treasury Secretary’s announcement came just one day after stablecoin issuer Tether said it had frozen more than $344 million of its USDt (USDT) at the request of US authorities for “activity tied to unlawful conduct.” The company did not explicitly mention Iran at the time.

As part of a Friday notice on OFAC’s list of Specially Designated Nationals, the government agency sanctioned two crypto addresses on Tron with a

combined $344 million. Treasury officials claimed that the wallets were tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Islamist political group Hizballah. 

Iran reportedly pocketing crypto tolls for Strait of Hormuz passage

The sanctions announcement followed reports that Iran was planning to charge ships in Bitcoin (BTC) for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for transporting oil and other supplies. Forbes reported on Thursday that Iran had banked revenue from the crypto tolls.

Although US President Donald Trump said that the US was under a ceasefire agreement with Iran as of this week, tensions continue to escalate over the Strait. Iran reportedly attacked three ships using the waterway, while US naval forces have set up a blockade.

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Bitcoin developer Paul Sztorc announced on Friday that a new hard fork of the Bitcoin network called eCash will be deployed in August.

Bitcoin holders will be able to exchange their BTC for eCash at a 1:1 ratio once the hard fork is live, Sztorc said in an X post.

He added that the layer-1 node software for the chain will be a “near-copy” of the BTC Core client software and will use the SHA-256 hashing algorithm used by the Bitcoin blockchain, with a reduced initial mining difficulty to make it easier for participants to mine blocks.

Source: Paul Sztorc

The new layer-1 hard fork will also have seven layer-2 scaling networks called “drivechains,” for increased transaction throughput and optional onchain privacy, he said.

Sztorc distanced the eCash hard fork from previous attempts to hard fork the Bitcoin protocol, including Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which was created in 2017 but failed to become the dominant chain. However, the announcement drew mixed reactions.

Bitcoin community reacts to Sztorc’s announcement

“Unlike BCH, the 2017 fork, there is no ‘Bitcoin’ in the name,” Sztorc said, adding, “This is a permanent and sustainable fix to Bitcoin's problems.”

He added that the forked chain would “manually” reassign a portion of Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1.1 million BTC stash to early investors.

“Taking Satoshi coins is theft and disrespectful, and eCash is already used for Lightning payments with Cashu and Fedi. Those are poor choices,” Bitcoin advocate Peter McCormack said in response.

Source: Paul Sztorc

“I give you two or three years to fold completely,” Bitcoin advocate PakoVM said about the planned hard fork.

The announcement came amid a growing debate about Bitcoin’s tech stack and whether the protocol should introduce privacy-preserving features and post-quantum resistance.

“Back in 2017, the Bitcoin tech stack was strong, and expectations for Lightning were strong. Today, it is the reverse,” Sztorc said.

The Bitcoin Lightning Network is a layer-2 scaling solution for BTC that allows transactions to be processed within seconds, instead of waiting 10-minutes for transactions to settle to the main Bitcoin ledger.

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In a repeat of 2025, top holders of US President Donald Trump’s memecoin, Official Trump (TRUMP), will gather for a private event that many critics have described as selling access to the presidency.

On Saturday, Trump and up to 297 of his memecoin holders will meet at the president’s Mar-a-Lago property in Florida. According to the project behind the memecoin, attendees will include stablecoin issuer Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, cryptocurrency exchange Upbit founder and CEO ChiHyung Song, Bitcoin (BTC) advocate Anthony Pompliano, Anchorage Digital co-founder and CEO Nathan McCauley and many others associated with financial institutions, crypto and blockchain.

Source: GetTrumpMemes.com

Notably, however, there was no public statement confirming the appearance of Tron founder Justin Sun, a prominent supporter of the president, an investor in the Trump family crypto business World Liberty Financial, and the TRUMP holder at the top of the memecoin project’s leaderboard, with 2.4 billion points.

Cointelegraph reached out to a spokesperson for Sun regarding his potential appearance at the luncheon, but did not receive an immediate response.

Sun made headlines this week after announcing a lawsuit against World Liberty, alleging that the crypto platform co-founded by Trump’s sons froze his tokens and threatened to burn them “without any proper justification.”

The Tron founder publicly stated that he was an “ardent supporter” of Trump, but “certain individuals on the World Liberty project team have been operating the project in a manner that goes against President Trump’s values.”

“The only thing more ridiculous than this lawsuit is spending $6 million on a banana duct-taped to a wall,” said World Liberty co-founder Eric Trump, referring to Sun’s November 2024 purchase of a piece of art called the Comedian, which the Tron founder then ate. 

Sun attended a similar May 2025 dinner for TRUMP memecoin holders, along with Synthetix founder Kain Warwick, Kronos Research chief investment officer Vincent Liu and others. Crypto user Morten Christensen attended last year’s dinner for a $1,200 investment in the memecoin and reportedly won a seat for Saturday’s event for about $500.

“Trump is much less liked right now than he was after inauguration,” said Christensen, according to a Bloomberg report. Now with the whole year of tariffs, crypto is bleeding, his reputation within the crypto community is not as good.”

Second memecoin event raises eyebrows among lawmakers, interest groups

The Saturday luncheon has drawn criticism from many lawmakers, who said that Trump was “dang[ling] access” to the presidency, as well as organizations monitoring potential conflicts of interest.

“Crypto wallets associated with [TRUMP] have engaged in financial maneuvers that make it difficult or impossible to track how much Trump may be profiting from the burst in trading,” said the nonprofit Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington in a Friday BlueSky post. “But what we do know is that despite the value of Trump’s coin decreasing since its first release, he can still make an enormous profit just by collecting small fees on each trade. The more people buy and sell, the more money Trump can make.”

Since its launch just days before Trump was sworn into office in January 2025, the price of the TRUMP token has fallen more than 93% from its all-time high of about $45 to under $3 at the time of publication.

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Aurelion, a Nasdaq-listed company building a Tether Gold-backed treasury, has allocated 10,000 units of the token, worth about $48 million, to a newly launched protocol designed to generate yield on tokenized gold.

The DeFi protocol, XAUE, was introduced earlier this week by the Aurise Foundation as a treasury layer for Tether Gold, allowing tokenized gold to be used in yield-generating strategies while maintaining exposure to the underlying asset.

Aurelion is the rebranded form of wealth and asset manager Prestige Wealth and is positioning Tether Gold as a primary reserve asset. In October 2025, the company raised $150 million in financing, including a $100 million private investment in public equity and a $50 million debt facility, to support the strategy.

According to the Aurise Foundation’s initial announcement on Wednesday, Antalpha, a digital asset financial services company, was also among ecosystem partners that committed a combined 16,052 XAUT, or around $76 million, to seed the protocol.

XAUE generates yield through strategies such as institutional lending and quantitative trading, with returns reflected in an increase in the gold backing per token rather than being distributed separately.

The protocol operates on Ethereum and uses a fixed-supply model, in which deposited XAUT is converted into XAUE at a 1,000:1 ratio. Under this structure, reserves may grow over time as yield accrues while token supply remains unchanged.

Users can redeem XAUE for the underlying gold-backed tokens. Access is limited to whitelisted, KYC/KYB-verified institutional participants in eligible jurisdictions, the foundation said.

Aurelion said it will hold a total of 33,318 units of Tether Gold following the allocation, including 10,000 units deployed to XAUE and 23,318 units held outside the protocol.

The price of Aurelion (AURE) stock was up about 2.6% in midday trading, according to Yahoo Finance data.

Aurelion stock price. Source: Yahoo Finance

Tokenized gold moves toward yield-generating structures

Gold has traditionally been considered a non-yielding asset, offering price exposure without generating income. But tokenization, the process of representing real-world assets like gold on blockchain networks, is beginning to introduce new structures that enable yield while maintaining exposure to the underlying commodity.

In March, crypto exchange Bybit launched a yield-bearing product tied to Tether Gold, allowing users to earn interest on tokenized gold while maintaining exposure to the underlying asset.

That same month, tokenization platform Theo introduced a yield-bearing model backing its gold-linked stablecoin thUSD, using deposited funds to purchase tokenized gold while simultaneously shorting gold futures to hedge price exposure.

In April, DeFi protocol Altura introduced an onchain gold arbitrage strategy that puts user deposits into short-duration physical gold trades, aiming to generate returns from price discrepancies rather than long-term exposure to bullion.

Tokenized commodities are largely concentrated in gold-backed assets, which typically provide price exposure without yield. Data from RWA.xyz shows the sector at roughly $5.25 billion, with Tether Gold and Paxos Gold accounting for the majority of the market.

Tokenized commodity market size. Source: RWA.xyz

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Project Eleven, a quantum security research company, awarded a prize to researcher Giancarlo Lelli for using a quantum computer to break a 15-bit elliptic-curve key — a small-scale version of the same cryptography used in Bitcoin, which relies on far larger 256-bit keys.

Lelli was able to derive a private key from the public key paired to it, using a “variant” of Shor’s algorithm, an integer factorization algorithm for quantum computers, according to Project 11’s announcement on Friday.

Bitcoin’s keys are 256 bits long, representing a “large” gap from the 15-bit key Lelli was able to crack, Project 11 said. However, the gap between Bitcoin’s 256-bit keys and the number of bits a quantum computer can factor has “fallen sharply” since 2025. Project 11 added.

“The resource requirements for this type of attack keep dropping, and the barrier to running it in practice is dropping with them,” Alex Pruden, CEO of Project Eleven, said.

The supply of BTC exposed to quantum attacks. Source: Rand Group

The attack is the “largest public demonstration” of a quantum computer breaking an ECDSA key, and it threatens about $2.5 trillion in value secured by elliptic-curve cryptography algorithms, according to Project 11. 

Bitcoin community debates the timeline of the quantum threat

Quantum computers threaten about $450 billion in BTC held in older wallet addresses whose public keys are exposed, according to crypto industry executives and computer scientists.

The Bitcoin community has about three to five years to prepare for the quantum threat, according to analysts at Bernstein.

Speaking at a Cointelegraph panel at Paris Blockchain Week in April, Blockstream CEO Adam Back said that the Bitcoin industry should start preparing post-quantum solutions now, even though the threat is decades away.

Source: Adam Back

“Quantum computing still has a lot to prove. Current systems are essentially lab experiments. I’ve followed the field for over 25 years, and progress has been incremental,” Back said.

In March, Google published a report showing that quantum computers may require far fewer qubits, the basic computational unit of a quantum computer, than previously thought to break modern cryptography standards.  

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The Fellowship political action committee (PAC), which launched claiming to have more than $100 million from crypto-aligned backers, has reportedly backed out of an advertising deal to support Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a crucial US Senate race.

According to a Thursday report from Axios, Republican leaders contacted US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on his connections to Fellowship, which has been partially funded by Cantor Fitzgerald.

Lutnick, as the former president and CEO and whose sons are now in charge of the financial services company, reportedly faced questioning from Republicans about Fellowship’s support of Paxton, whom on Tuesday the PAC reported spending $1.75 million in supportive advertising.

Fellowship PAC expenditure report on Ken Paxton. Source: FEC

The advertising expenditure, which Fellowship disclosed to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) through the marketing company Nxum Group, was reportedly never placed. As of Friday, the FEC filing showing the $1.75 million expenditure was still public. Cointelegraph reached out to Fellowship for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

A crypto-backed PAC like Fellowship backing out of support for a candidate in a US Senate race, possibly in response to pressure from Republican leaders, is somewhat unusual. Political action committees tied to digital assets support candidates on both sides of the aisle who they consider pro-crypto.

Along with Fellowship, PACs like Fairshake and others are expected to spend a combined hundreds of millions of dollars in the US midterm elections after pouring money into ads for 2024 candidates to influence voters. 

Paxton, who failed to win outright in a March primary against Senator John Cornyn, will face the Republican incumbent in a May 26 runoff before the November general election. Whichever Republican wins a majority of the vote will likely face off against Democrat James Talarico in a race for one of Texas’ US Senate seats.

Crypto entities calling for action on market structure bill in Senate

Republicans have held a slim majority in the US Senate since January 2025, leading to the passage of the stablecoin bill, the GENIUS Act, and the consideration of other pieces of crypto legislation. However, if Democrats gain majority control of the chamber in the 2026 midterm elections, it could change how the Senate approaches crypto laws.

Since July 2025, the Senate has been considering a bill on crypto market structure, expected to be one of the most comprehensive pieces of legislation affecting the industry. Delays, in part due to government shutdowns, ethics concerns and questions about stablecoin yield, have persisted for months, with no vote on the bill scheduled in the full chamber.

On Thursday, more than 120 entities affiliated with the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry urged Senate Banking Committee leaders to stop stalling on advancing the market structure bill, the CLARITY Act. The committee will need to hold a markup on the bill before the Senate can potentially schedule a vote.

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