[6.23 hedging strategy sharing, Bitcoin HV and IV both fell, market opinions diverged]
There is a saying that Bitcoin rises in divergence and plummets in consensus. However, the current Bitcoin divergence is very large and has been sideways for a long time. Where will the market go in the future?
People who follow the Buddhist philosophy will say that they come from where they came and go where they are going. I will not fool you. There is a 90% probability that there will be a correction, a plummeting correction.
The analysis logic is: First, the US stock market has peaked, and a type of technology stocks such as Nvidia have grouped together to increase their market value, which is very similar to Tesla in 2021. Profits cannot last long, and prosperity will inevitably decline.
Second, Bitcoin is seriously Americanized, the number of Bitcoins on exchanges has decreased, and ETFs have increased their holdings. The logic of Bitcoin is no longer the logic of the currency circle, but the logic of the US stock market.
Third, the volatility signal. The historical volatility is lower, the implied volatility is lower, and the hope of bottoming out and rebounding is not great, because the price of Bitcoin is already at a historical high. It is also in line with experience to fall and pull back before setting a new high.
I hope my guess is wrong, and Bitcoin will continue to rise to 10K. The purpose of analyzing risks is to prevent risks and avoid losses.
It is recommended to adopt a conservative strategy when market opinions diverge.
First, stop increasing spot holdings, and open medium- and long-term delivery contracts at the same time to partially hedge spot exposure.
Second, you can sell some medium- and long-term out-of-the-money covered options, use the premium to reduce the cost of holding positions and increase the return on holding positions.
Third, you can use a small amount of funds to do some forward bullish spread strategies, so that you can get some of the returns in case of a surge and will not miss out.
In addition, Bitcoin's bearishness does not affect my bullishness. The logic is still the logic of US stocks. When Tesla fell, Nvidia took over.
If Bitcoin pulls back, the Ethereum Fund will take over. Even once the Ethereum ETF is listed, we must be prepared for Bitcoin's plunge.
The routine of capital swapping, one pool pouring into another pool, although the trick is old, it works well.
In terms of Pairs trade, long Yitai and short ens, all island friends have made good profits, right? Just continue to hold positions, ens will continue to go down.
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