冰火岛

SOL has recently seen a significant rebound, especially in block trading, which is a very strong signal. Coupled with the positive news of CME launching SOL futures, it is expected to rebound to the 160 level. From the gamma distribution, we can also see that the negative gamma area is concentrated around 140, leading to increased volatility. Positive gamma is concentrated at 160. There is no significant resistance between 140 and 160. #冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets #加密期权

[Sharing of hedging strategies on the weekend of August 3, non-agricultural data triggered recession concerns, and the US stock market brought down the cryptocurrency market. Will it continue to fall further in the future? ]

Recently, I have been reminding you of the black swan risk. I wonder if any island friends have bought insurance and recovered some losses last night.

Last night, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in July was far below expectations and the previous value, and the unemployment rate was the highest in nearly three years. Recession concerns caused the market to plummet and US bonds to soar.

The number of non-agricultural jobs in July dropped sharply from the previous value of 179,000 to 114,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level in three years, and triggered the recession indicator Sam's rule. Affected by this, the three major US stock indexes led the decline, and the "fear index" VIX hit the highest level since March last year, up more than 59%.

At present, analysts believe that there is no suspense about the interest rate cut in September. The key is how much it can be cut? If it is less than 100 basis points, it will probably be a drop in the bucket and it will be difficult to curb the recession.

The US recession will bring down the US stock market and the world economy, and the huge risks will make the market silent.

On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency circle, the big cake and the concubine followed the decline, and the amplitude was large. The implied volatility of the two rebounded from the bottom. The recent volatility has risen particularly fast, and the left side of the volatility tilt curve has risen. It seems that everyone's bets on the decline have increased.

In the next few days, the probability of a continued deep retracement is very high. It is recommended to take insurance to prevent tail risks.

At the same time, the upward trend of volatility is also conducive to the implementation of the seller's short volatility strategy at highs.

When it fell, there was also good news. Trump said in an interview on Friday that it is recommended to use cryptocurrency to solve the US debt problem, suggesting that the United States accepts Bitcoin to help solve the US debt of 35 trillion US dollars.

In this way, Bitcoin's future prospects are still bright, and in order to take on the great responsibility, it has to continue to rise.

Therefore, the forward ambush rise is still the main theme of option traders.

Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island to communicate.

#冰火岛

【9.6 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: Data dominates market sentiment, will non-farm payrolls lead to a weekend market crash? 】

Last night, recession expectations rose again, and analysts believe that the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 45%.

The ADP employment data, known as the "small non-farm payrolls", unexpectedly fell to 99,000, a three-and-a-half-year low, showing a sharp slowdown in the labor market. Tonight, the August non-farm payrolls data will affect the market and will have a huge impact on the September rate cut.

On the other hand, the US ISM service industry index in August has expanded moderately for two consecutive months, and the final value of the Markit service industry PMI is the highest in nearly two and a half years, and recession concerns have been dispelled.

The data-dominated market sentiment model of the US economy has gone a bit crazy. Once the subsequent data gets out of control, the Federal Reserve and even the entire US market may be backfired by the data.

However, there is still good news in China. On the one hand, the RMB exchange rate has risen, which will push up the A-share market index; on the other hand, Guotai Junan merged with Haitong, and the brokerage firm's big move indicates a rebound in the stock market.

How should cryptocurrency traders choose at the crossroads where US stocks are falling and A-shares are expected to rise? Obviously, the trend of Bitcoin has clearly followed the trend of US technology stocks.

In the next month, it is very necessary to prepare for a correction or even a plunge and take insurance measures.

Tonight's non-agricultural data is the first test.

Suggestions:

Ambush the double buy strategy half an hour in advance and bet on gamma riots and volatility surges.

After the data is released, monitor the opening trend of US stocks. If the stock trend is not good, stop loss and exit in advance. If there is a large fluctuation in US stocks, you can hold the position overnight and bet on the simultaneous plunge or surge of Bitcoin.

The seller recommends that you can clear the position in advance and re-establish the position on the weekend according to the change in volatility. September is a month to test patience and technology. The decline is not terrible. As long as you master the rhythm of volatility changes, the double sell strategy can still be profitable.

For more details, please join Binghuo Island to communicate.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

Is this a huge negative for BNB?

According to Bloomberg, people familiar with the matter revealed that the US Department of Justice (DOJ) has selected consulting firm Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA) as Binance's external regulator.

As a supervisory agency, FRA will be responsible for ensuring that Binance complies with the plea agreement. FRA will gain access to the company's internal records, facilities and employees and report the company's activities to the government.

This means that users from all over the world will no longer have privacy in front of the US Department of Justice. It's too outrageous.

It will probably trigger a mass exodus.

I hope CZ can counter after he is released from prison.
#冰火岛 $BTC $BNB

[Sharing of hedging strategies on 6.24, the pie fell slightly, the market as a whole is weak, waiting for good news to boost]

This week is another week full of big things. The release of US core PCE data will disturb the market. At the same time, the first TV debate of the US presidential election will also trigger a wave of positive attention on the topic of encryption. Expectations skyrocketed.

The pie fell lower over the weekend, which is in line with the previous volatility signal analysis. The downward trend of pie volatility remains unchanged and shows a gathering trend. When will the mean revert, we have to wait for the news of interest rate cut to come out.

The historical volatility of Ethereum has increased significantly, and the implied volatility is also rising. If nothing unexpected happens, there will be big moves this week, and skyrocketing prices are expected.

Volatility reflects the mentality of traders and predicts traders' risk preference for the future. However, volatility cannot resist sudden changes in external data, so volatility can assist predictions and should be further combined with macro and micro data.

June is coming to an end. Analysts predict that July and August will be mostly boring sideways trading periods. We are collectively optimistic about the market situation after September.

Under this premise, we have stronger reasons to continue to implement the covered strategy and obtain stable income through the passage of time.

The newly opened Yitai 3450 contract + 3500 short call combination a few days ago can only cover the retracement of 3400. Once it falls below 3400, it will lose money. Therefore, you can close the 3500 call position and continue the short 3400 call position until the 28th of this week. If the price continues to fall this week, positions can be moved backward and rolled over before expiration.

If you have not opened a position before, you can buy next week's combination of 3400 delivery contract + short call 3500 today.

A dull knife cuts through the flesh of the falling market. Using coverage near the average value can absorb the time value and play a certain role in covering the retracement, which is very cost-effective.

The coverage of the main spot positions can be maintained at the psychological price and rolled over to September.

In terms of Pairs trade, island friends who are long ETH and short ens have already made quite good profits, so they can just continue to hold positions. It is not recommended to open new positions. When the trend of ens breaks the Bollinger Band, it is recommended to close all positions. For now, just continue to hedge the downside risk of ETH.

Welcome to join the Binghuo Island community and communicate together.

#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH

$BTC

I haven't recommended pairs trade for a long time. Go long on auntie and short on ens, the price has reached the right level.

As long as the weekly Bollinger Band of ens touches the top, it is recommended to enter the market. The position ratio is one to one.

It is recommended to enter the market in batches, after all, the surge of ens is very scary. You can open a one-fifth position first. Wait for the correction trend to be established before replenishing the position.

ens will see the retracement to the middle track.

ens does not have any high profit opportunities, and the main thing is to make hard money from selling domain names. Moreover, the price increase of auntie is bad for it, which is not conducive to the long-tail effect of cheap domain names.

After all, the annual domain name rental price increases, and many users will not renew.

There are many competitors and friends, and it can no longer dominate the market. $ETH $ENS #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Feasibility analysis of shorting ton coin

Ton coin is the token of telegram, with nearly 1 billion real traffic, which can be regarded as a foreign WeChat-level super application.

The development of ton chain is good, and its current market value ranks ninth in the world.

With a price of 6 dollars and unlimited supply, can it be strong in the future?

The answer is no. The circulation of more than 3 billion is already ninth in market value. If its currency volume increases further, it has the opportunity to compete in the top three.

This is too easy for an application chain, and money is not earned in this way.

Of course, ton is also working hard to improve empowerment, release mobile phones, and share advertising to make the chain more valuable.

But the current valuation is still high.

Once the bull market is blocked, it is a more reasonable view that ton will pull back by 30%.

However, this coin is not currently listed on Binance, and there are no related options products. Hedging short-selling transactions uses Bitcoin to hedge.

Go long on pie and short on ton, with a position ratio of 1 to 1.

#比特币减半 #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Today’s hedging trading strategy, pay attention to safety

The sudden rise and fall of the currency circle is the source of profits for hedging transactions. Only by making good use of the fluctuations can you carry out price difference arbitrage.

Big Pie and Auntai have fallen significantly, and the hedged currencies have basically not fallen much. In this case, you cannot blindly cover your positions.

I have always emphasized that leverage cannot be increased, just to prevent hedging imbalances from causing liquidation.

In the current market situation, just continue to hold positions. Funding rates are still friendly to holding positions.

Before the halving, plummeting and rising prices were the usual tactics of bookmakers, so just sit tight on the Diaoyutai.

Option hedging can be forward monthly settlement, sell and call, and the exercise price is 72,000.

You can cover the floating loss part, but the principle is that the total position cannot exceed the margin, and there is no need to add leverage.

There is no rush to close the hedging position that has already made a profit at this time. You can continue to hold it.

I have talked about the concept of closing positions before. Only when you find a combination to open a new position, it is not too late to close the old position.

$BTC $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Beware of weekend declines, this is a very bad signal

After the recent listing of ETFs, most of them have risen on weekends. Starting to fall on weekends means that the overall retail investor potential has declined.

Whale activity selling is also increasing.

Pay attention to the 60,000 support level.

Sell some at-the-money call options appropriately to hedge the downside risk.

#比特币减半 #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Can I short ens? When should I enter the market?

Go long on Yitai and short ens to hedge. You can do it slowly in batches. The trend has already diverged.

Hedging of different currencies, also known as pairs trade, can be one-to-one or 2-to-1.

Hedging of Yitai and ens can be 2-to-1 if you are more conservative. You can build positions in batches to avoid losses caused by continued upward speculation of ens and leave room for replenishment.

When hedging different currencies, do not add leverage and do not exceed 20% of the total position.

Profits cannot last long, and they will decline after reaching their peak. As a seller, you must always be able to endure loneliness and be a friend of time.

I wish the sellers a long-term win and make a fortune together. $ENS $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Today's hedging strategy sharing, talk about Ethereum ETF's favorable pledge track

Fidelity has modified the ETF application form, indicating that it will no longer be pledged. In other words, once the Yitai ETF is listed, the absolute deflation of Ethereum will be aggravated.

Without staking, there will be no interest, and the ETF income of Ethereum will decrease. However, the pledge income of other Yitai will be relatively improved.

In other words, the larger the scale of the ETF, the higher the return of the pledge track, because staking is the core mechanism of Ethereum's POS, and it must have a certain scale to ensure safety.

So it is understandable that the copycat rises, and it is even more understandable that the market expects Yitai ETF. It can activate the entire second-layer network and generate alpha returns far exceeding other currencies.

Therefore, once the Yitai ETF is passed, it is a good idea to ambush a leader in the pledge and re-pledge track.

At the same time, you can use over-the-counter options to hedge and enhance the income of holding coins.

Let's get back to the point. Today's strategy is still bullish on Ethereum, but you must do a good job of hedging against retracements.

Will the landing deadline on the 23rd pass? The big fluctuations are already undercurrent.

It is recommended to buy the double-buy doomsday options that expire on the 24th at noon on the 23rd.

The price of the aunt soared, and the call option soared 6,000 times. This market may be replicated again. Soaring or plummeting, double buying can take it all.

Unless it does not rise or fall, then you can only admit defeat. Double buying is betting on big fluctuations, so the investment is very small. Under $100, don't invest more.

If you don't want to gamble, you can continue to do covered call strategy. Buy spot and sell call options with an exercise price of 4,000. Expiration date is May 31st.

In the middle of the bull market, I wish you all continue to make a fortune. $BTC $ETH #以太坊ETF批准预期 #冰火岛 #对冲交易

Talk about the option strategy of taking a small risk and a big risk, the ratio spread strategy

If you only have $1,000 or $500, how can you follow the rising trend with a small risk and not get liquidated due to a pullback or a spike?

It's very simple, don't do contracts, do options.

For example, you think the price of Auntie may rise to around 3,650 next week. Then, you can buy a call option with an exercise price of 3,600 and sell two call options with an exercise price of 3,750, both of which expire next week.

Then, when Auntie rises to around 3,650 next week, you will reap the maximum profit, which is about 10 to 20 times leverage, but you will not get liquidated due to a sharp drop.

At the same time, your option fee is almost zero cost.

The only risk is that if Auntie rises more than 3,750, you will suffer a loss.

How to define your own ratio spread price range needs to be determined based on your risk tolerance and the overall market trend.

Have you ever done a ratio spread strategy? Compared with the bull market spread, it has a smaller investment and higher returns. The risk of loss from a unilateral surge is greater, and the risk of loss from a unilateral plunge is smaller.

$BTC $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Basic knowledge of options, first bullet

Starting today, I will popularize the basic knowledge of options trading. Major exchanges should thank me for providing free investment education, haha.

Let's talk about the four trading directions of options first.

Options, options, a right to buy or sell spot at a specific price at a future time.

Therefore, options are divided into call options and put options.

Call, call option, stipulates that the buyer of the option buys spot at a specific price at a specific time in the future.

Call options include two trading directions:

Long call, buy call

Short call, sell call

Put, put option, stipulates that the buyer of the option sells spot at a specific price at a specific time in the future.

Put options include two trading directions:

Long put, buy put

Short put, sell put

For example,

Ethereum Long- 20240419- 3600-call

The above option means that the eth call option expires on April 19, 2024, with an exercise price of $3,600.

If you buy this option and choose to exercise it when it expires, you can buy the aunt at a price of $3,600. If it rises to $3,700 at this time, you will make a profit. If it falls to $3,500 at this time, it is not profitable, and you can also not exercise the option, and only lose the premium for buying the option.

If you sell this option, you promise to sell the aunt at a price of 3,600 yuan as agreed when the option expires. No matter how much the aunt price is at that time, as long as someone exercises the option with you, you must fulfill the contract. In return, you can get the option premium.

So, the buyer pays the premium and gets a promise. The seller promises a promise, gets the premium, and the option transaction is completed.

In order to ensure fulfillment, we will also ask the seller to pay a certain margin.

In reality, many buyers use option leverage to bet on unilateral rises and falls for the sake of safety and risk-taking. Many sellers do it to hedge spot risks and hedge arbitrage.

Everyone gets what they need and gets what they want. This is the charm of the financial market.

At present, Bitcoin and Ethereum options are relatively mature, and everyone can trade together.

Next time, we will talk about the impact of Greek letters on trading.

For more knowledge about #对冲交易 , please follow #冰火岛 $BTC $ETH

Brothers, have you seen Renzo's concubine decouple? Ena's future has been previewed

As long as it is possible to decouple, it will definitely decouple.

The decoupled price flash crashed by more than 50%.

This is devastating.

No market can withstand such a large instantaneous drop.

Cherish the bull market. $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Today's hedging strategy is to continue holding Bitcoin to hedge against STX, and new positions are also OK

The specific reasons were explained yesterday, so I won't repeat them.

The volatility of STX is still sideways, and there was a slight profit from opening positions at highs yesterday.

However, if you keep hedging, the profit from funding fees is considerable.

You can check the history of funding rates, which is a bit outrageous.

Profits cannot last long. Even if STX rises again, it cannot change the fact that it focuses on narrative and neglects development.

There is no ecology, only stories, and the current price has paid a premium.

So, wait for the return.

#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $BTC $stx

[6.23 hedging strategy sharing, Bitcoin HV and IV both fell, market opinions diverged]

There is a saying that Bitcoin rises in divergence and plummets in consensus. However, the current Bitcoin divergence is very large and has been sideways for a long time. Where will the market go in the future?

People who follow the Buddhist philosophy will say that they come from where they came and go where they are going. I will not fool you. There is a 90% probability that there will be a correction, a plummeting correction.

The analysis logic is: First, the US stock market has peaked, and a type of technology stocks such as Nvidia have grouped together to increase their market value, which is very similar to Tesla in 2021. Profits cannot last long, and prosperity will inevitably decline.

Second, Bitcoin is seriously Americanized, the number of Bitcoins on exchanges has decreased, and ETFs have increased their holdings. The logic of Bitcoin is no longer the logic of the currency circle, but the logic of the US stock market.

Third, the volatility signal. The historical volatility is lower, the implied volatility is lower, and the hope of bottoming out and rebounding is not great, because the price of Bitcoin is already at a historical high. It is also in line with experience to fall and pull back before setting a new high.

I hope my guess is wrong, and Bitcoin will continue to rise to 10K. The purpose of analyzing risks is to prevent risks and avoid losses.

It is recommended to adopt a conservative strategy when market opinions diverge.

First, stop increasing spot holdings, and open medium- and long-term delivery contracts at the same time to partially hedge spot exposure.

Second, you can sell some medium- and long-term out-of-the-money covered options, use the premium to reduce the cost of holding positions and increase the return on holding positions.

Third, you can use a small amount of funds to do some forward bullish spread strategies, so that you can get some of the returns in case of a surge and will not miss out.

In addition, Bitcoin's bearishness does not affect my bullishness. The logic is still the logic of US stocks. When Tesla fell, Nvidia took over.

If Bitcoin pulls back, the Ethereum Fund will take over. Even once the Ethereum ETF is listed, we must be prepared for Bitcoin's plunge.

The routine of capital swapping, one pool pouring into another pool, although the trick is old, it works well.

In terms of Pairs trade, long Yitai and short ens, all island friends have made good profits, right? Just continue to hold positions, ens will continue to go down.

Welcome to join the Binghuo Island community to communicate.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH $BTC $ENS

[6.29 hedging strategy sharing, US PCE hits a three-year low, but the stock market is still falling, Big Bread and Auntie continue to reduce volatility, and the market will continue to be cold]

The crypto market has entered the sage time. As the embarrassing situation of good news not being fulfilled and rising continues, market sentiment has become cold and dull to the freezing point.

Before and after the release of US PCE data, the market was quite expectant, but the effect was average. US stocks still opened high and closed low, and did not bring strong sentiment.

The volatility of Big Bread and Auntie in the currency circle continued to decline. Big Bread has reached a historical low. Although Auntie is still at a relatively high level, the trend is also continuing to reduce volatility.

The weekend market is likely to continue to maintain a negative decline. At the same time, be careful of the risk of a large retracement.

In this situation, it is recommended to still focus on the covered call strategy, and buy the put ratio spread at delta0.3 to protect against declines.

According to the historical experience of the listing of Big Bread ETF, necessary callbacks can relieve Grayscale's selling pressure and guide new physical assets into ETFs.

The Yitai ETF is likely to follow a similar process, and may have entered the wash period.

In terms of pairs trade, the leading token of the EVM system continues to rise, approaching the upper track of the Bollinger band, and can be hedged with a light position.

Welcome to join the Binghuodao community to communicate together.

#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $ETH $SOL $ENS

If the middle track cannot be effectively broken tonight, the pie will wilt again next week

Come on! Haha

The downward trend of the pie is hard to stop, and the expectation of a rate cut is hard to contain.

The whole of May is still expected to fall, and it can only break through the end of the year after it is sorted out.

Auntie has always been my greater hope, but Hong Kong ETFs have indeed dampened enthusiasm.

The next step is to rely on the hype of ETFs in the United States.

From a strategic point of view, the covered call strategy of spot + selling call options is the most suitable for the current market situation. Increase returns and reduce spot costs.

The specific strategy and skills depend on personal risk preferences, welcome to discuss. $BTC $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛

[6.26 hedging strategy sharing, the Fed's hawkish remarks are coming, and the US stock market seems to have stopped buying it. Can the big cake rise? ]

The hawkish speech of the Fed voting committee stated that there might be no interest rate cuts in 2024. This hawkish speech seems to be another wolf coming, and the friends are a little unconvinced, even the US stock market Nvidia rebounded, Microsoft and Google hit new highs.

Can the big cake rebound? From the data, it seems that there is some resistance. The historical volatility is up, and the implied volatility is down, which is a divergence trend.

Although short-term divergence cannot indicate any long-term trend, the lack of momentum for rebound sentiment is certain.

Look forward to the emergence of new sentiment. The release of PCE data this Friday may be a good opportunity.

In addition, our crypto OG Trump will also have an election debate on Friday. Look forward to his golden sentences to ignite market sentiment.

The concubine is still cold and deserted, and the news of ETF listing is kept secret. The main force will not let retail investors buy the bottom in advance. This is a game of endurance and patience.

This week's hedging strategy is to be prepared for continued declines and to take insurance.

In terms of insurance, I think that the price of Yitai will not fall below 2900, and the price of Dabing will not fall below 56500.

For the insurance of Yitai, it is recommended to do a ratio spread, buy 3300 puts and sell 2900 puts, the time is the end of September, and the position ratio is 1:2. As long as it does not fall below 2900 at expiration, the combination will have the highest return.

At the same time, continue to cover the Yitai options and do not give up the weekly minimum guarantee income.

In order not to miss the future increase, a forward call ratio spread is also made. Buy 3800 calls and sell 4500 calls, position ratio: 1:2. Or, buy 3500 calls and sell 4000 calls, position ratio 1:1. Both are possible. Expiration time is the end of September.

As long as it does not rise above 4500 at expiration, the ratio spread will have the highest return. If it rises to more than 3500 but not more than 4000 at expiration, the bull spread combination will have the highest return. According to the judgment of the future market, everyone can build their own favorite price range.

In terms of Pairs trade, the cottage rebounded violently, and the profit could not last long. With the breakthrough of the upper track, it is not too late to short. Don't rush to open a position at present, just observe.

Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community to communicate together.

#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $BTC $ETH $SOL

[7.11 hedging strategy sharing, S&P historical high Tesla rose 11 times in a row, how does capital swap affect Bitcoin? ]

Yesterday, the US stock market hit a new high again. The strong trend of the US economy has made the market full of confidence, and the pattern of stocks and bonds rising together is a bull market.

From Nvidia in the early stage to Tesla in the recent stage, the seven sisters of the US stock market have risen in rotation, and capital has smoothly swapped positions, pushing the index higher. However, Bitcoin has not kept up with the pace of the seven sisters recently, and there has been a significant retracement. Can we expect a big bull market to return in the future?

At present, analysts are still optimistic about the violent bull of the big cake, and they all seem to be betting on the surge in September. From the perspective of option data, the heavy bets in September, December, and March next year are also gradually increasing.

From the perspective of volatility, the 7-day HV of the big cake is higher than the at-the-money IV of 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months, and the traction of the implicit wave upward should take effect.

From the perspective of HV history, the 1-month HV is lower than the 6-month HV, and the probability of rising volatility is very high. With the expectation of both IV and HV rising, the expectation of Bitcoin rebound is gradually increasing.

The volatility trend of Yitai is similar to that of Bitcoin. Moreover, Yitai is also superimposed with the expectation of ETF listing. At present, we can expect its strong rebound.

However, from the perspective of volatility term structure, the fv before August was relatively low, and it was high after September. It should be that the market is optimistic about the official launch in September.

As traders, we will not put the ambush of the rise in September. Then continue the covered call strategy before August.

We should not try to eat all the rising profits. As long as we confirm the signal and enter the market to follow the general trend, we can eat part of the profits, which is already a good strategy.

In addition, while waiting for the sideways trading time of Bitcoin and Yitai to start, you may as well continue to trade cross-currency volatility.

The volatility of Sol and Matic is higher than that of Bitcoin. You can sell both cottage options and buy both Bitcoin options to earn the volatility difference. However, this strategy is risky. If you are not good at risk management, please operate with caution and try and make mistakes with a light position.

Welcome to join Binghuo Island to communicate. There will be a welfare lottery in the near future.

#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH $SOL $BTC