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At 8:30 tonight, the US will release CPI data. As we said before, the impact of CPI data on the market is gradually decreasing. Normally, if the data tomorrow night continues to decline, the impact will not be significant, and the market will continue to move as it should, without a big rise or fall.

However, if the CPI data rebounds for the first time, it is hard to predict the market, because the inflation data has been steadily falling in the past, and the market is used to it. If the inflation data suddenly rebounds, the market may directly turn bearish and cause a decline. This is something to be aware of.

Then on August 13, which is this Sunday, we need to pay attention to the application for the Bitcoin spot ETF. I personally tend to think that the proposal will be postponed by the SEC. Of course, we will see the specific situation at that time.

The crypto market is on the verge of a trough. What opportunities should we look for?

Bitcoin Halving and ETFs

A large group of Ethereum enthusiasts want to believe that the Bitcoin halving is just a meme. People can believe whatever they like, but the fact is that it has a significant impact on the market structure due to the impact of selling pressure. Based on the income of Bitcoin miners, they are selling Bitcoin at record levels.

As this selling pressure is reduced by 50%, it is bound to have an impact on Bitcoin’s market structure as it reduces selling pressure, which usually leads to a new bull market.

The upcoming ETF approval outcome is being closely watched by the market and if it is rejected, it could very well be a catalyst that pushes prices further down. Approval is bullish if the institution applying for the ETF actually holds Bitcoin.

Regardless, if Bitcoin is approved, I believe Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin from that point on, as that would mark a bottom in the ETH/BTC ratio.

NFT bottom

The NFT market has likely hit bottom and had its DeFi 2022 moment this summer. Considering all the liquidations on Blur and the Azuki incident, sentiment is at an all-time low.

People tend to forget that the NFT surge in early 2021 was the result of crypto natives making a ton of wealth during the DeFi summer of 2020, which then seeped into the NFT market. In my opinion, for NFTs to experience another bull run, you need people to make a ton of wealth in other areas of the market.

In summary, I think NFT is the last area in the market to rise. Therefore, you won't see a true NFT bull run until ETH, BTC, and DeFi run ahead. However, their prices will still gradually rise, which is why you have to pick your winners now. When the NFT bull run comes, the prices will rise like crazy.

Other ecosystems

Solana looks to be having a resurgence and will become a significant player in the L1 competitive landscape. Although the DeFi landscape established during the SBF period was a farce, they still have a strong community and are rebuilding.

If I believe SOL has the potential to return to its ATH (~$250), and I believe ETH will go up to $10k at its highest, then SOL would be up 10x compared to a 5.5x increase (let’s assume 5x for the sake of calculation).

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