As Bitcoin weakens, the negative atmosphere in the market has gradually spread. The only thing that can make everyone see "hope" is that ETH's Cancun has been upgraded.
Before, everyone had been speculating that the time would be the second half of 2023, but there was no exact time. However, everyone knew that it was good for L2. During this period, OP and IMX also had a very good market at the beginning of the year. At the end of last year, we also reminded everyone
Recently, many people and institutions have predicted that the ETH Cancun upgrade will be in November this year. As soon as this news came out, it was unanimously recognized by many people.
This has also spread to the L2 sector, among which OP, ARB, etc. have also seen a wave of increases, and the recent popularity is also very high
However, there is no confirmed time for the official website to release it yet, so we still have to wait to see whether it can be held as scheduled. Another thing is that ETH upgrades are often delayed.
This is a personal interpretation of the news. The most important thing is to look at the market. Only the market trend will not deceive people.
On a weekly basis, after falling to $881 on June 13 last year, it has seen a surge as POW transitioned to POS, and the increase has been rapid.
The subsequent year's shock rebound did not continue to break new lows. This trend is very tempting for those who invest regularly.
But in my opinion, I am not so optimistic for four reasons.
1. This year's rebound is not large
2. The rise was very bumpy, and the bulls did not continue to increase their volume
3. The market is not clean enough to buy at the bottom, and retail investors hold too many chips
4. Reversal signals appear in the concentrated trading area
These points were actually mentioned at the end of last year. At that time, it was also believed that BTC would perform better than ETH in this year's bull market, because there were too many people betting on ETH in the second half of 2022.
Now it is obvious from the review that Bitcoin is very strong this year and has always been the vane of the market, while ETH has basically not been in the limelight.
At present, ETH is fluctuating between 1700-2100 USD, with only one upward surge during this period, but it still failed.
It has not touched $2,100 since then, which means that the bulls are seriously lacking in momentum at this point.
Let’s take a look at the trend of the 3-day line chart. There are several high points marked in the chart, which are far lower than the $2146 after the first wave of full rise.
Secondly, the volume has also shrunk severely, which is far from the previous rise.
The body of the K-line is also decreasing.
Secondly, it came to the dense trading area above, and the K-line showed a reversal signal: V-shaped top
The trend of the 3-day line deepens the judgment of the weekly line. The rest is to pay attention to the daily level. Once it breaks, it may cause further decline in the weekly line.
With the current trend, the Cancun upgrade will most likely be postponed to early 2024, which I think is the most appropriate
The first reason is the market trend, and the second is that the market is eagerly waiting for good news.
If the upgrade is confirmed in November this year, there will definitely be a wave of increases, but this trend does not seem to be a sign that the main force is going to pull the market up. Secondly, retail investors already have a lot of chips of around $1,000 in their hands. Secondly, the big cake is also fluctuating at a high level, and the shorts are starting to become strong.
Pulling it up does not mean that retail investors will make money for nothing, which is not in line with market rules. Therefore, the best thing is to let retail investors hand over their chips, and then pull up the market in combination with favorable factors.
Just like the Ethereum POW to POS mechanism on September 15, 2022, it will fall in place in advance, and then rise fully in combination with favorable factors, and then start to pull back after the favorable factors are implemented.
This is how many people stood guard in the last wave, so that ETH did not fall much in the deep bear market in 2022.
ETH understands the cryptocurrency world the best. It will step forward at every critical node and drive a wave of the cryptocurrency world. Perhaps this is the true origin of “Bitcoin gold, Ethereum silver”!
Therefore, based on the market situation and past experience, I believe that ETH and the main players will make full use of the Cancun upgrade to inject "fresh blood" into the currency circle.
We have made a long-term plan for the best time for ETH. If you are also optimistic about it and want to hold it for a long time, then we are just like-minded.
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