After the release of the non-farm data yesterday, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin rose for a short period of time and then fell. The U.S. stock market fell quite badly. Apple, with such a large market value, fell 4.8 points yesterday. This should be related to the recent financial report that showed a decline in revenue for the third consecutive quarter. Affected by the unsatisfactory performance of the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin also fell to around 28,800 to stop falling. It is currently maintained at around 29,050. When the U.S. stock market rose before, Bitcoin did not follow. Now that the U.S. stock market has begun to correct, whether Bitcoin will fall instead of rise, or whether part of the funds from the U.S. stock market will flow into the crypto market, thereby realizing sector rotation (rotation between the U.S. stock market and the crypto market) remains to be seen!

Will the market continue to fluctuate in August?

Last week, Bitcoin fell below $30,000, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's consideration of raising interest rates. However, Wall Street economists expect that the September meeting may suspend interest rate hikes, which will limit the downside of $BTC after it falls below $29,000. On the other hand, there are more and more market risks, so it is difficult for BTC to stay above $30,000. This includes the regulatory uncertainty faced by Binance and the hacking incident of DeFi protocol CurveFinance.

From the data, we can see that institutional investors are losing interest in cryptocurrencies. As of July 28, about $19.4 million was withdrawn from Bitcoin investment funds.

How will Bitcoin perform in August?

If the $BTC price breaks through $30,000, it will be expected to advance to $31,500, which is also the peak in July. If the price of Bitcoin continues to rise for many months, the target of $31,500 is also reasonable.

However, if the price falls below the 50-day exponential moving average and the rising trend line, Bitcoin will be at risk and may fall to $27,000, which is the position of the 200-day exponential moving average. Previous historical data shows that this 200-day moving average has supported the price of Bitcoin in March and April.

To sum up, the Bitcoin market may fluctuate significantly in August due to factors such as the application for Bitcoin spot ETF and large-coin spot FTF, corporate investment, regulatory policies, macroeconomic changes, ETF impact, and Bitcoin reward halving event.

Pay special attention to the BlackRock spot ETF ruling and the timing of the Bitcoin block reward halving. Market volatility may rise sharply

In chronological order, there are four major events that can bring a bull market to the cryptocurrency circle:

1. Cancun Upgrade

2. Bitcoin halving

3. The Fed cuts interest rates

4. Bitcoin spot ETF approved

Cancun upgrade to start at the end of 2023

Improve ETH performance and bring more high-concurrency applications, with a focus on arb and its ecosystem rdnt, magic, gmx, op and its ecosystem velo, sonne.

Bitcoin halving in April 2024

Mining rewards are halved, BTC's second-layer network Ordi Inscription may benefit

Fed cuts rates

The Fed's interest rate cut is the release of money. For a long time, there will be a plunge in the U.S. stock market before the Fed cuts interest rates. With BTC currently following the trend of the U.S. stock market, this may be a rare golden pit.

Bitcoin spot ETF approved

The passage of BTC ETF is inevitable, but the prerequisite is that the United States formulates a complete blockchain cryptocurrency bill. Only with a complete bill as a basis, ETF will be passed. This will be the catalyst for the bull market.

The most eye-catching sector in the past two days is the gaming sector, with YGG leading the gains and LOKA following suit

Among them, LOKA is also an IEO project of BN. Its long-term hype value is still good. You can continue to pay attention to it in the future. YGG originally thought that it would give a chance to get on the train when the big cake pulled back yesterday, but it went up directly. Since it went up, let's continue to wait and see! Don't chase highs at will. In addition, don't go short if you are bearish, otherwise it will be easy for you to explode by inserting a few dozen points at will. Refer to the previous rises of STORJ and AGLD, etc., all of which were pulled up to highs and suddenly plummeted! Those who chased in don't know when to get out! Those who shorted have already been exploded, a double kill of longs and shorts!

After looking at the newly launched products of BN, WLD, ARKM, MAV, SUI, EDU, etc. have all fallen terribly. Therefore, it is better to operate with caution, and quit while you are ahead. Use swing trading to reduce the overall holding cost. Don't chase highs, don't chase highs, don't chase highs!

With limited liquidity on weekends, the main strategy is to sell high and buy low!

Today’s article ends here. If you think it’s well written, you can click to follow and read~