David Rosenberg, a well-known economist who accurately predicted the recession when he was chief U.S. economist at Merrill Lynch during the 2008 financial crisis, now says non-farm payrolls will take a shocking turn for the worse in the next six months.

The non-farm payrolls data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) last week showed that the U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in April, lower than the 238,000 expected by economists and far lower than the average monthly increase of 274,000 jobs between December and March. While a single month's data is not enough to constitute a trend, some pessimistic market observers believe that the latest data may be a harbinger of greater weakness in the U.S. economy in the future.

Rosenberg pointed out in his report that according to the latest available data, the U.S. economy actually lost 192,000 jobs in the third quarter of 2023, while the non-farm payrolls showed an increase of 640,000 jobs in the same quarter. In addition, the non-farm payrolls data failed to keep pace with the quarterly employment and wage census data, which showed that job growth momentum was significantly weak in the third quarter of last year.

Rosenberg believes that non-farm payrolls are "historically overestimated" and attributes this to the way the BLS collects data. Rosenberg pointed out that the BLS survey results may be inaccurate due to low response rates and the BLS's inability to know whether some businesses have closed and employees have found other jobs.

Based on these discrepancies, Rosenberg expects a significant downward revision in non-farm payrolls in the coming months, which will surprise investors and the Federal Reserve. He said: "The revised data will be released in the next six months, which will bring shocks to the Fed and the market. The Fed intends to stay put now and pay close attention to lagging and concurrent indicators, but these indicators are full of high error terms. The longer the Fed waits, the more it needs to do in interest rate policy in the future, similar to the situation in 1991, 2001 and 2008.

Rosenberg has been famous for his frequent warnings of recession in the past few years. However, so far, the US recession has not really arrived. Despite the Fed's sharp interest rate hikes, the unemployment rate remains below 4%, and US consumers are still willing to spend even in the face of inflationary pressures.#第55期新币挖矿IO #bnb历史新高 #山寨季何时到来？ #5月非农数据即将公布