Cold knowledge about the rise and fall of the market. It is mainly written for contract parties. If you like to speculate in BTC, you can also read it.

Background: mainly two narratives

1. Up to now, the United States, Europe, and Hong Kong have all passed BTC spot ETFs and opened for trading. Funds are the essence of rise and fall, so the depth of liquidity is greater in the United States than in Europe and Hong Kong, which also corresponds to three time zones. The United States is from 9:30 pm to about 4 am the next day Beijing time, Hong Kong is from 9 am to 4 pm Beijing time, and Europe is from 3 pm to 11:30 pm Beijing time (the United States and Europe will be extended by one hour during the winter camp)

2. On the basis of 1, due to practical problems such as liquidity, BTC is more affected by the US macro-economics. So in the US macro-economics, remember the Merrill Lynch clock, the four stages of the economic cycle: recovery period, overheating period, stagflation period, and recession period. Now is not a recovery or overheating, as for stagflation or recession, it is not the essence I want to express. The essence I want to say is that the current rise and fall is more affected by emotions. The liquidity impact is not high. Unlike the period from February to March (39,000-73,700).

Based on this background. Contract parties, pay attention, here comes the core. (Take Binance as an example)

The liquidity depth on weekends in Beijing time is very poor. Especially if it is as poor as a few thousand BTC, it can cause a deep market crash, and vice versa, hundreds of millions of US dollars can also pull the market. On Monday, because the US stock market closes on Monday and opens at 9 or 10 o'clock on Monday night, you need to look at the BTC futures data of CME during the day on Monday, and whether the spot is positive or negative premium. This is a direct reflection of retail investor sentiment.

Generally, the entire Friday in the US time is from Friday night to Saturday morning at most 9 o'clock in Beijing time. If the market is good, then the weekend will be good, otherwise, the weekend will not be very good. Of course, unexpected events will also affect it: for example, the Israel-Israel exchange some time ago chose to make trouble on the weekend.

The above is about weekends, and then weekdays. This is actually based on the current macro background. ETF data is actually just a matter of occasional attention, and so is capital inflow. What needs more attention is the release of macro data, including speeches by Yellen and Powell, which will directly affect the rise and fall of the market.

For those who play BTC contracts in the current macro background, some friends will definitely say that it is actually difficult to do contracts at this stage of the economic cycle.Because of the volatile market, it is mainly affected by macro sentiment and is not easy to control.

Therefore, I do not recommend long-term (such as more than one month). I recommend short-term, which is 5-14 days at most (more than 20 days at most). The essence is to take into account the weekend liquidity and the macro data of the next week.

Whether you are long or short (I do not recommend a high multiple), it depends on the individual.

The essence of the contract is to choose a direction. If you think that the macro data in the future will be more favorable than unfavorable, then you will definitely choose long in terms of winning rate. But there are two points here:

First, the safe position should be floated at least 3000-8000u on weekends for insurance (you can go to Binance to observe the trading volume and floating from weekend to Monday. This floating space is not what I said, but it is observed as shown in the following figure (part)). Be especially careful when the European market opens on Monday afternoon. When the US stock market opens in the evening, the price is still there, but the order is gone.

If you don’t know how to screen strong coins, then I suggest you follow me. Whether it is spot or contract, a slight move may be your limit. The opportunity is very short, so you must seize it! Success does not depend on luck, choice is more important than hard work, and circle determines destiny. In the currency circle, in addition to having a keen eye for judging the situation, you must also keep up with a good team and a good leader. If you follow me, you are already half successful in the currency circle!