B Circle Essays (2)

Can we follow the same path to the current high point?

Many people understand this bull market as follows: After the previous bull market broke through the previous high, BTC completed the breakthrough of 30,000, 40,000, and 50,000 in just a few months, and directly reached 60,000.

So this time, after breaking through 70,000, it will directly reach 100,000, about 150,000, and 200,000.

First of all, the amount of funds required for 20,000-70,000 and 70,000-200,000 is not at the same order of magnitude. You can simply understand that the difficulty of BTC reaching a new high is increasing exponentially. But fortunately, now that various countries have approved BTC ETFs, it can be understood that the national team has come out to buy.

Secondly, the overall environment is different, and we need to be cautiously optimistic. The previous bull market was accompanied by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Federal Reserve violently cut interest rates. There was enough funds in the market to support the market value of BTC. This abundant capital environment is unique in 2020-2021.

What about now? Global liquidity is drying up, and funds will flow to the United States as interest rates rise. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the future is like a fog.

To be honest: there is a high probability that there will be no such good thing as an interest rate cut this year, so go to bed.

The federal funds rate is high at 5.25-5.5%, and the yield on 10-year US bonds is still 4.5%. Do you think smart money will come to the cryptocurrency market or flow into US Treasury bonds?

The last bull market had a gain buff, and this bull market, at least as of 2024, still has a debuff, and it is not easy to eliminate in the short term. This positive and negative, I think you have to be aware of it.

It is dangerous to look for a sword on a boat. Don't think that the previous round of increase will increase several times, and this round will have to increase several times. This time, the scumbag market that repeatedly slapped its face just after breaking through the previous high is actually a result of the unfriendly capital environment.

From 7w upwards, every breakthrough is not easy.