Let the data speak: Funds are flowing back, and risk appetite is still poor.
There were many things this week, which led to a gap in the intermediate data, but there was just enough time for this data of Bitcoin's rise. Let's compare the data on Monday with the current Thursday to see how the market is doing when Bitcoin rises.
First of all, the main force under the market value increase is Bitcoin itself. Compared with the data on Monday, the market value of Ethereum and cottage did not increase with the increase in Bitcoin's market value, but instead decreased. The same is true for the market share. Bitcoin's share has reached 52%, sucking a lot of blood from cottages and Ethereum.
In terms of trading volume, the overall trading volume is increasing, but the difference is very large. Judging from the increase and decrease in market value, the increase in Bitcoin's trading volume is accompanied by a rise in prices, which represents an increase in bullish sentiment and also represents the digestion of a lot of bearish sentiment. At the same time, the increase in liquidity is a good thing.
On the other hand, Ethereum and cottage, accompanied by the increase in the overall decline in market value, represent the intensification of short forces, which is not a good thing.
The current funding is good, with an increase of 400 million in stablecoin funds on the market and a net inflow of 714 million in off-site funds. Excluding the 400 million increase in the market value of stablecoins, that is, 314 million directly participated in the transaction.
Among them, Asian funds increased by 509 million in the past few days, and the data is good. The US funds increased by 205 million. Although the amount is not large, the returned funds also represent the gradual warming of the mood of US traders. Especially at 6 am after the US stock market closed after the release of CPI data on Wednesday, a large amount of funds returned, which also indicates that the mood of US traders has improved under the sentiment of favorable data.
Although the market data is mixed, according to the current increase in the proportion of Bitcoin, the sentiment in the market is still not optimistic. The current risk sentiment preference is biased towards wait-and-see and cautious, so the transaction share of Bitcoin has increased, while Ethereum and Shanzhai are still biased. It also shows from another perspective that traders are more inclined to Bitcoin for the current market risk tendency, so the overall market recovery still depends on the face of Bitcoin.
Although US funds have returned, the return is also accompanied by the positive CPI data. Whether US funds can continue to return to the market and whether the market's positive sentiment under the macro economy can be continued is very important.
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In the Bitcoin market dominated by market sentiment, we can't use technology to analyze too much. Theoretically, if it stands above 62,400, even if it falls back, the price is still in the price safety range. However, if the current price falls back to 62,400, it will cause many people's pessimistic bearish sentiment in the short term. This is the market dominated by emotions.
At present, it continues to be bullish. The upper monthly resistance level is imminent. The monthly resistance level of 68,000 has been mentioned several times this week, and the breakthrough of this monthly resistance level is very critical because it will directly represent the breakthrough of the monthly bullish sentiment.
Falling down, in the short term, look at around 65,000, the daily EMA50, and continue to fall back to the key position of the mid-line 62,400. If the decline cannot fall below this position and rebounds, it can be regarded as the oscillation of the upper track of the daily Bollinger Band. If it falls below, the price will enter the lower track again, which is not conducive to bulls.
As for the support below, it is currently far away, so I won't mention it for now. There is one in the figure. It is worth mentioning that the weekly support has moved up after this period of time. That is to say, while maintaining the oscillation above 60,000, although it cannot guarantee that the price of Bitcoin will always rise in the long position, the upward movement of the lower support will also more effectively defend the space for price decline.
After RSI touched 70 today, it did not fall back to the oversold range. Although the price rose and broke through, the bullish sentiment did not break out completely, so we are currently paying close attention to the support situation after the short-term decline to make a conclusion.
Everyone is saying that Bitcoin is rising, and the cottage is falling or not moving. The fundamental reason is that the market also needs to confirm whether this rise is the beginning of a bullish trend or an explosive rebound under the short-term emotional squeeze. If it is the latter, then the bullish sentiment will be released and the follow-up will be weak and it will fall back, and the cottage needs to wait for the verification results before daring to come out to trade.
Later, we will pay attention to the changes in market data and funds and see what the data tells us.
#BTC走势分析 #美国4月CPI数据回落
