I saw a piece of data today that I thought was quite interesting. I want to share it with you. This data is called Bitcoin Percent Supply in Profit. The translation is the profit proportion of BTC in circulation. This data reflects the last recorded movement. The percentage of BTC that is currently lower than the market price. To put it bluntly, it means how many of the BTC that have been circulated are in a profitable state. As of today, this data is 84.365%, that is, 16,205,873 BTC are in a profitable state, while only 16,205,873 BTC are in a loss state. 3,003,713 pieces, and why we want to talk about this data is because it is not just this cycle. In fact, the same problem and different results have occurred in the previous cycles.
I saw in the tweets that many friends always said that the current car is too heavy and that Gouzhuang has no way to pull the offer. It needs a big cleaning to allow Gouzhuang to absorb enough chips before it can pull the offer. This is what my friends say. We have been looking forward to the last drop before the bull market. Whether there is a final drop is not the issue we discuss today. What we need to discuss is whether the previous assumption is correct and whether the price of BTC is because the car is too heavy. There is no way to pull it up. In fact, this statement is wrong. We can see from the historical data of BTC that the orange wavy line is the number of BTC that has been profitable, and the black curve is the price of BTC. Through this data, we can see that although During the rise of BTC, there is indeed a trend of winners changing hands, but in fact the proportion of winners is not the basis for whether the price increases.
In this picture, I added a yellow comparison area to represent the trend of BTC price when the profit ratio exceeds 95%. In other words, when almost all profits are made, you can see that the price of BTC is almost always rising. trend, and in fact we can also see that only when the profit ratio is gradually rising, it corresponds to the rising trend of BTC price. Of course, there will also be a large change of hands in this process, even more than 10 % of the profit-seekers left the market, and this data is also normal. It represents the change of hands of those who have made profits. This also shows that during the rise, many investors gradually sell their profit-making chips and reduce the price. The profit proportion is the temporary high taker.
The actual meaning of this data is to tell us that when more people are making profits, it will trigger FOMO emotions and drive more funds to buy. Even if we zoom in to the data of the past three years, we can find that profits More than 95% of the share has been maintained for more than a month after BTC broke through the high of $60,000 twice, proving once again that only when more people make profits can the price continue to rise. The market sometimes reacts in reverse. It is human nature. There are always friends who think that the higher the price, the fewer people will buy, and the harder it will be to pull the deal in Gouzhuang. In fact, we can see from the data that the higher the price, the more profits will be made, which is FOMO. The stronger the emotion, the more funds will be driven into the market, which in turn will stimulate the price to continue to rise. And this is not only true for BTC, but also for ETH. The more profits there are, the easier it is for the price to rise.
Of course, the funds in the market are not unlimited. The transition from a bull market to a bear market may not be because the car is too heavy or that there is not enough money in the market, but due to various reasons, a large number of sell-offs are triggered, and these sell-offs are no longer enough. The funds brought in by FOMO will fall when they take over, and as there are fewer and fewer winners, the price will gradually get lower and lower, and this data also has a lower limit. Often when the number of profit-making chips is lower than 50% of the time are historical lows. Although it cannot be said that you can make a profit immediately when buying the bottom at this data, it is often the lowest price range. At this point, we can actually clearly understand that during the rising stage of BTC price, the price will continue to rise. The banker will indeed have a boosting effect, but more of it is the FOMO emotion brought by the profit makers. Whether the car is heavy or not has a positive relationship with whether the price of BTC will rise. The heavier the car, the easier it is for the price to rise.
