PhyrexNi

968Posts

PhyrexNi

数据搬运工

Open Trade

Frequent Trader

7.2 Years

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Article

Certainty Trade of US-Iran Ceasefire — — Bitcoin and WTI

I see many friends feeling anxious, on one hand, the big players make money as easily as drinking water, while on the other hand, the little ones lament how difficult it is to make money.
My advice is to try to maintain a calm mindset. Envy and pity cannot be transformed into productivity. To make money, one must have their own logic, which is very important. I can only speak to what I have observed.
1. Have sufficient awareness.
2. Have information asymmetry.
3. Dare to take action.
I am the person who dislikes gambling the most, so I didn't open any positions in any direction before this morning, mainly due to risk aversion. In fact, there were three opportunities this morning.

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Article

(pure translation) Statement from the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran

The noble Iranian people must know that, through the holy struggle of their children and their historic presence on the battlefield, the enemy has been begging for over a month to stop the fierce firepower of Iran and the resistance forces. However, national officials decided from the very beginning to continue the war until the goals are achieved—among which is to make the enemy feel regret and despair, and to eliminate the long-term threat to the nation—thus rejecting all these requests, and the war has continued to this day, which is the 40th day. Meanwhile, Iran has repeatedly rejected the final deadlines proposed by the U.S. president and has repeatedly emphasized that it does not care at all about any form of deadline set by the enemy.

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10U War God applies for a battle, shorting CLUSDT (WTI), dual currency going long on BTC

PhyrexNi

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Two weeks of ceasefire, two weeks of the Strait of Hormuz being open, likely coming to an end. BTC rises 📈

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Two weeks of ceasefire, two weeks of the Strait of Hormuz being open, likely coming to an end. BTC rises 📈

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Recently, the USD1 activity has been ongoing, and it's been extended for another month. I don't know if it's because the structural bill is about to pass or if it's stimulated by $CRCL. USD1 is continuously using subsidies to gain user support. In this situation, having a stable income, with interest rates higher than investment products, is already quite good.

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Article

Summary of the Federal Reserve's March 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting

In the closing remarks of today's press conference, Powell made it clear that data centers are being established all over the United States, and the establishment of these data centers may push up inflation and could also raise the neutral interest rate. Therefore, there is no expectation of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the short term. Of course, more data is needed to determine this, but Powell currently believes that the growth of the U.S. economy is good, and the labor market is relatively stable. The main reason that allows the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy is still the decrease in inflation.
However, in the short term, whether it is the rise in oil prices triggered by the war between the United States and Iran or the rise in product inflation caused by tariffs, these are not issues that can be resolved in the short term. Therefore, maintaining the interest rate should be Powell's main task, at least during Powell's tenure. Then it's the usual three things: look at the data, keep the inflation target at 2% steady, and it's unclear what the specific trend will be next.

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Article

Using data to illustrate the reserve situation of Bitcoin

Using data to illustrate the reserve situation of Bitcoin
The biggest change in this cycle in 2024, in essence, is that the inventory of Bitcoin on exchanges has not increased with the rise in $BTC prices. On the contrary, whether BTC prices are rising or falling, the inventory on exchanges has been decreasing, and there are three reasons for this situation:

First: Although the purchases of spot ETFs may not be considered a lot, traditional investors in the United States alone have bought 1,289,739 Bitcoins, and the global inventory of spot ETFs has exceeded 1.3 million BTC.
Second: Trump's strategic reserves in the United States, many may not believe it, but indeed the inventory and price reversal of BTC started from Trump's speech at the Bitcoin Consensus Conference. Since then, the inventory of BTC on exchanges has been continuously decreasing.

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Article

Does the four-year halving cycle of Bitcoin still exist?

In my personal opinion, the impact of the halving on $BTC is becoming weaker, as the total supply approaches its limit, the anti-dumping effect of each halving is not as strong as it used to be.
Moreover, looking back at the past few cycles, when Bitcoin truly enters a phase of emotional climax, it often overlaps with the U.S. electoral cycle. So my consistent view is that the four-year cycle likely still exists, but it is driven not just by the halving itself, but more like a result of the halving, elections, liquidity expectations, and risk appetite working together.
The national election itself will not directly determine the price of Bitcoin, but elections often influence fiscal policy, regulatory expectations, and the market's imagination about future liquidity, which are precisely the things that risk assets value the most.

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Article

Circle Financial Report Detailed Interpretation — — Looking at the Essence Through Phenomena, Is CRCL Worth Buying?

First of all, I am not bearish on $CRCL. I have also stated multiple times that CRCL is on my buying list; I just do not plan to buy CRCL at 80+ USD. Recently, I have been considering gradually rebuilding my position, which is the premise.
Many partners have seen Circle's financial report, and the answer provided for the fourth quarter is still quite good. Some partners even said that it is impressive for Circle to perform this well during a rate-cutting cycle. While this statement is not incorrect, it is not entirely correct either.
Indeed, Circle's fourth quarter financial report for 2025 shows a 77% increase in total revenue compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 770 million USD. The earnings per share (EPS) reached 0.43 USD, significantly exceeding market expectations, with a net profit of approximately 133 million USD, which is undoubtedly positive.

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Currently, in this market situation, I personally recommend that friends who are not familiar with options and find them troublesome can consider the "dual currency investment" scheme. For instance, the annualized return of $BTC at $57,000, which expires tomorrow at 4 PM, is 13.5%, while the return on Bitcoin at $54,000, which expires the day after tomorrow, is 11.27%.

If the price reaches, buy in; if the price doesn't reach, just take the interest. The attractiveness of this price is already very high. Buying may not lead to losses. If you don't buy, you still get more than 10% interest, and the interest on one BTC can cover a nice meal.

Moreover, it only takes a day or two, and the capital occupancy rate is very low.

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Article

Interpretation of SEC's Easing of Stablecoin Discount Rate — Is it Positive or Negative?

Just today, the SEC's Trading and Markets Division updated the FAQ, clearly stating that compliant 'payment stablecoins' can be treated at a discount rate of 2% in the calculation of broker-dealer net capital rules (staff do not oppose this). Subsequently, SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce issued a statement in response, indicating that stablecoins in regulatory capital measurement have finally begun to transition from nearly unusable assets to something closer to low-risk cash-like instruments.

1. What is the discount rate?
The discount rate is the regulatory pricing of asset risk.
To prevent broker-dealer bankruptcies, regulators require them to hold a certain amount of net capital. When calculating these capitals, the assets on hand cannot be valued at 100% of market price and must be discounted.

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Article

Kalshi (Prediction Markets) and the Rise of Macro Markets — — Article by the Federal Reserve

Yesterday, I noticed the CFTC talking about prediction markets, but I didn’t pay much attention, after all, the CFTC is the supervisory body for prediction markets. However, when I looked at the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes in the early morning, I suddenly saw comments from the Federal Reserve about Kalshi and prediction markets, which piqued my interest.

First, the Federal Reserve believes that prediction markets are becoming a new tool for measuring macro expectations, compressing participants' judgments into prices using real funds, and able to do so in high frequency, real-time, and continuously updated, which is very rare in traditional macro expectation frameworks.
More critically, the Federal Reserve emphasizes that the value of macro prediction markets like Kalshi lies not in having another point prediction, but in offering a distributional approach to predictions.

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Last time we talked about Sun Yuchen and his stablecoin ecosystem, some friends asked me where the USD1 stablecoin route of the Trump family is?

Firstly, the backing of USD1 is the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, so the natural route is the compliant stablecoin system in the United States. What USD1 should aim for is not a savings-type stablecoin, but rather a stablecoin primarily for payments and transactions.

And the strongest competitors in this field are USDT and USDC, so for the newly entered USD1 to directly compete with USDT and USDC would definitely be the most foolish approach. USDT is somewhat acceptable since it has not yet achieved compliance in the United States, while the users of USDC and USD1 overlap significantly. The most direct solution for USD1 is to use subsidies to exchange for scenarios, and then use those scenarios to create network effects.

Recently, the series of actions from USD1 has been very apparent. Firstly, they provided a large amount of yield subsidies, and then tried to keep the exchange rate of USD1 in line with USDC to ensure the stability of 1 US dollar. This plan can maximize the seizure of the compliant market of USDC.

It supports the same trading as USDC, but with higher subsidies than USDC, and even does not require staking; just holding it gives interest (this is the same as USDC on Coinbase). Moreover, USDC is tied to Coinbase, while USD1 hopes to be tied to Binance. Under the conditions of supporting regular cryptocurrency trading, it also supports trading PAXG (gold) to broaden users' trading horizons.

So in terms of approach, USD1's method is more like "subsidy sedimentation," allowing users to exchange USDT and lock it in, while USD1's method is more like "subsidy liquidity and transactions," allowing users to exchange USDC and USDT for USD1 in the exchange to use as settlement base.

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Today I checked the number of sovereign countries holding $BTC that can be counted.

From the statistics, in the past year, apart from the Bhutanese government, which has clearly sold Bitcoin, there has been no data of sales from detected addresses, including China.

Moreover, in the past year, Bhutan, the United States, and El Salvador have all increased their BTC holdings.

Bhutanese Government: 10,769 BTC

Bulgarian Government: 0 BTC

Chinese Government: 190,000 BTC

El Salvador Government: 7,474.37 BTC

Finnish Government: 90 BTC

German Government: 0 BTC

North Korean Government: 13,562 BTC

UAE Government: 6,333 BTC

UK Government: 61,245 BTC

US Government: 329,693 BTC

Venezuelan Government: 240 BTC

Total 619,406.37 Bitcoins

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Article

A Brief Discussion on Bitcoin Spot ETF — Useless Knowledge +1

Recently, there have been many articles about the spot ETF for $BTC, which have been mixed in opinion. Some even believe that the initial expectations for the BTC spot ETF have completely shifted to selling off in the market, and the spot ETF has become an asset that 'not even dogs play with.'
I want to elaborate on some 'key frames' of the Bitcoin spot ETF since January 11, 2024, from a data perspective.
Firstly, institutional buying of the Bitcoin spot ETF has had almost no effect on the spot price; it is all about hedging or arbitrage rather than being bullish on BTC.
This statement is both true and false based on the data revealed from 13F filings. It can indeed be seen that nearly over half are institutions buying the spot ETF, but not all of these institutions are using it for hedging. There is no complete data representation of this, but I don’t think that’s the most important point. The most important thing is that currently, out of the 1,270,839 $BTC held by U.S. investors, more than 90% or even more may be locked up.

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I have not found the average holding cost of the $ETH spot ETF until now. Today I saw an article from Bloomberg stating that the average cost of the U.S. ETH spot ETF is about $3,500, which is nearly 10% higher than my estimate of $3,200. Moreover, the ETH spot ETF started on July 22, 2024.

The price at that time was around $3,500. Except for some investors in April 2025, almost all have incurred losses in the meantime. Nevertheless, the U.S. ETH spot ETF still holds 5,826,299 Ethereum, which is an increase of 2,759,563 compared to the initial opening.

It is indeed evident that traditional investors have serious confidence issues regarding cryptocurrencies, but selling off is still not the primary choice for these holders. The peak holding of the ETH spot ETF was 6,943,333 on October 8, 2025, and so far, a total of 1,117,034 has been reduced, accounting for 16.09%.

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Article

Has Bitcoin and Ethereum hit the bottom? Is it a rebound or a reversal now??

LTH-NUPL is one of the best indicators for buying the dip for $BTC that I have always believed in, the other being VIX. Of course, VIX is primarily meant for the US stock market and seems a bit rough for Bitcoin, but the data from LTH-NUPL has never been wrong when it comes to buying the dip.

From the current situation, although the price of Bitcoin fell to 60,000 USD on February 6, according to the data from LTH-NUPL, it has only entered the yellow area and has not yet reached the orange and red positions. Generally speaking, red indicates a very high certainty of a buying opportunity, while yellow usually represents the transition between bull and bear markets.

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Article

How to Sell Bitcoin Using Dual Currency Investment — Binance Edition

The dual currency winning system has some differences among various platforms, and the details covered by these differences can be extensive. Therefore, let me introduce how to invest in $BTC through dual currency investment on #Binance.

First of all, Binance's dual currency investment skips weekends, meaning there are no settlements on weekends. The settlement time is also at 4 PM. As you can see, I placed my order at 2:41 AM, just before going to sleep. In fact, it was executed at 8 AM this morning, but I won't be able to access my BTC until 4 PM on February 9th (Monday). If I don't buy it, I will receive USDT instead.

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Article

Determining Bitcoin's Bottom Fishing Timing through the VIX

The VIX is the U.S. fear index, which can be seen in TradingView as free data. It has been my long-term strategy for bottom fishing. Through backtesting data, I found this method to be quite effective, especially when market sentiment is extremely poor.

I personally divide the bottom fishing of the VIX into several stages:
1⃣. When the VIX is at 20, it is generally in a normal fluctuation.
2⃣. When the VIX is at 25, it has already entered the initial stage of panic. This may not be the best time for bottom fishing, but it can be used for observation, especially for assets that have declined significantly.

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Previously, I roughly estimated that the average cost of the U.S. spot ETF for $BTC was around $75,000. I just saw more accurate data, which includes:

Average cost for BlackRock investors: $83,696.5
Average cost for Grayscale investors: $81,337.6
Average cost for Fidelity investors: $73,752.97

Other holdings are too minimal to count, the total cost of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $84,090.91.

BlackRock investors hold 767,365 BTC
Grayscale investors hold 207,703 BTC
Fidelity investors hold 192,102 BTC

The total Bitcoin content of U.S. investors holding the Bitcoin spot ETF is 1,276,639 BTC

The current Bitcoin price is $78.780.

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