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Determining Bitcoin's Bottom Fishing Timing through the VIX
The VIX is the U.S. fear index, which can be seen in TradingView as free data. It has been my long-term strategy for bottom fishing. Through backtesting data, I found this method to be quite effective, especially when market sentiment is extremely poor.
I personally divide the bottom fishing of the VIX into several stages:
1⃣. When the VIX is at 20, it is generally in a normal fluctuation.
2⃣. When the VIX is at 25, it has already entered the initial stage of panic. This may not be the best time for bottom fishing, but it can be used for observation, especially for assets that have declined significantly.
I personally divide the bottom fishing of the VIX into several stages:
1⃣. When the VIX is at 20, it is generally in a normal fluctuation.
2⃣. When the VIX is at 25, it has already entered the initial stage of panic. This may not be the best time for bottom fishing, but it can be used for observation, especially for assets that have declined significantly.
Previously, I roughly estimated that the average cost of the U.S. spot ETF for $BTC was around $75,000. I just saw more accurate data, which includes:
Average cost for BlackRock investors: $83,696.5
Average cost for Grayscale investors: $81,337.6
Average cost for Fidelity investors: $73,752.97
Other holdings are too minimal to count, the total cost of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $84,090.91.
BlackRock investors hold 767,365 BTC
Grayscale investors hold 207,703 BTC
Fidelity investors hold 192,102 BTC
The total Bitcoin content of U.S. investors holding the Bitcoin spot ETF is 1,276,639 BTC
The current Bitcoin price is $78.780.
Average cost for BlackRock investors: $83,696.5
Average cost for Grayscale investors: $81,337.6
Average cost for Fidelity investors: $73,752.97
Other holdings are too minimal to count, the total cost of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $84,090.91.
BlackRock investors hold 767,365 BTC
Grayscale investors hold 207,703 BTC
Fidelity investors hold 192,102 BTC
The total Bitcoin content of U.S. investors holding the Bitcoin spot ETF is 1,276,639 BTC
The current Bitcoin price is $78.780.
China, the United States, Europe, Japan — In Love and Hate? Money Says It All.
A while ago, issues related to Greenland led to friction between the United States and Europe, and the cooperation between Canada and China has also caused friction between the U.S. and Canada. The biggest variable in the U.S.-China market throughout 2025 is the trade dispute and the redistribution of supply chains.
However, from the perspective of U.S. Treasury purchases, overseas entities hold a total of 9.4 trillion U.S. dollars in Treasury bonds, of which Europe (not the EU) accounts for 33.4%. Japan is one of the largest holders among single countries and continues to increase its holdings, indicating that geopolitical conflicts can tear narratives apart, but it is difficult to immediately disrupt the settlement and collateral systems.
However, from the perspective of U.S. Treasury purchases, overseas entities hold a total of 9.4 trillion U.S. dollars in Treasury bonds, of which Europe (not the EU) accounts for 33.4%. Japan is one of the largest holders among single countries and continues to increase its holdings, indicating that geopolitical conflicts can tear narratives apart, but it is difficult to immediately disrupt the settlement and collateral systems.
On Monday, after CME opens, it is highly likely that Bitcoin (BTC) will experience its first (unfilled) gap on the recent daily chart, probably between $76,500 and $81,210. Although gap theory is somewhat mystical, all the short-term daily gaps of Bitcoin have been filled, with the earliest gap occurring when it was around $20,000 in 2023. All the previous gaps have been filled.
I previously conducted a calculation and will update the data slightly. The overall gap filling rate is approximately 95%, with the probability of filling within one week being around 55%, within two weeks around 65%, within three weeks around 81%, and the probability of filling within a year exceeding 90%.
This means that if the gap is not filled within three weeks, the difficulty of filling the gap begins to increase. The probability of filling a gap that has not been filled for over a year is very low. Therefore, if this gap is to be filled, it suggests that Bitcoin's price may have a chance to touch $81,000 again within three weeks.
I previously conducted a calculation and will update the data slightly. The overall gap filling rate is approximately 95%, with the probability of filling within one week being around 55%, within two weeks around 65%, within three weeks around 81%, and the probability of filling within a year exceeding 90%.
This means that if the gap is not filled within three weeks, the difficulty of filling the gap begins to increase. The probability of filling a gap that has not been filled for over a year is very low. Therefore, if this gap is to be filled, it suggests that Bitcoin's price may have a chance to touch $81,000 again within three weeks.
Tether 2025 Financial Report Analysis - A Dilemma of Coexisting Opportunities and Risks
Today, Tether also released its financial report, which includes that the total profit for 2025 exceeded $10 billion. This figure looks very large and very enticing, but compared to over $13 billion in 2024, Tether's annual profit decreased by 23%.
The main source of profit for Tether comes from the interest income generated by holding a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds. The holding amount reached $122.3 billion in 2025 (accounting for about 63% of total assets), an increase of about 29% compared to $94.5 billion in 2024. Cash equivalents, such as overnight and term reverse repurchase agreements, also increased from about $17.4 billion in 2024 to about $24.9 billion in 2025. However, multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 led to a decline in yields, directly compressing profit margins.
The main source of profit for Tether comes from the interest income generated by holding a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds. The holding amount reached $122.3 billion in 2025 (accounting for about 63% of total assets), an increase of about 29% compared to $94.5 billion in 2024. Cash equivalents, such as overnight and term reverse repurchase agreements, also increased from about $17.4 billion in 2024 to about $24.9 billion in 2025. However, multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 led to a decline in yields, directly compressing profit margins.
Are U.S. institutions out of cash? Is this the reason for the decline?
The sudden continuous decline today is not just in stocks and cryptocurrencies; gold and silver are also falling, and the dollar is down. My first thought is whether institutions are exiting. If so, what is the reason for their exit? Then I thought that institutions probably don't have much cash left.
Last week, when we looked at the global fund managers' allocations, we found that cash allocation had reached a historic low of 3.2%. This indicates that the cash in fund managers' hands is insufficient to continue driving the market up. We also see a lot of data suggesting that the main buyers of ETFs should be retail investors, making retail investors the 'bag holders' for institutions, which logically makes sense.
Last week, when we looked at the global fund managers' allocations, we found that cash allocation had reached a historic low of 3.2%. This indicates that the cash in fund managers' hands is insufficient to continue driving the market up. We also see a lot of data suggesting that the main buyers of ETFs should be retail investors, making retail investors the 'bag holders' for institutions, which logically makes sense.
Summary of the January Federal Reserve Meeting
Overall, the journalists' gossip questions are likely to be more than the current inflation questions, but Powell clearly is unwilling to answer any gossip questions, including whether he will continue to serve as a governor after resigning as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. This is the first time in the Q&A session I have listened to for so long that Powell did not answer the first five questions, including one from Nick.
In other questions, I mainly want to know whether we will enter a rate cut phase next. Personally, I feel that Powell is still quite dovish, with almost no hawkish remarks. When a journalist asked whether he would consider raising interest rates if the labor market remains unchanged but inflation continues to rise, Powell's response was still that this is not currently on the discussion table. This question comes up almost every time, and Powell's answer is always the same.
In other questions, I mainly want to know whether we will enter a rate cut phase next. Personally, I feel that Powell is still quite dovish, with almost no hawkish remarks. When a journalist asked whether he would consider raising interest rates if the labor market remains unchanged but inflation continues to rise, Powell's response was still that this is not currently on the discussion table. This question comes up almost every time, and Powell's answer is always the same.
As of now, the inflow of funds into U.S. ETFs in January has significantly surpassed historical highs, with cryptocurrencies exiting the top ten.
The good news is that as of now, there is still a large amount of money flowing into U.S. stock ETFs, with over $121.2 billion having flowed into ETFs listed in the U.S. in January. How scary is this data?
Eric from Bloomberg has calculated that the average net inflow of funds in January throughout history is $40 billion, and the historical record was set last year at $88 billion. As January is not yet over, it has already exceeded 40% of the historical high.
These funds are mainly flowing into ETFs related to the S&P 500, including $VOO, $SPY, and $RSP. The total inflow of these three assets has already exceeded $31.16 billion, accounting for about 25% of the total capital inflow.
Eric from Bloomberg has calculated that the average net inflow of funds in January throughout history is $40 billion, and the historical record was set last year at $88 billion. As January is not yet over, it has already exceeded 40% of the historical high.
These funds are mainly flowing into ETFs related to the S&P 500, including $VOO, $SPY, and $RSP. The total inflow of these three assets has already exceeded $31.16 billion, accounting for about 25% of the total capital inflow.
The relationship between the stock of Bitcoin on exchanges, price, and sentiment.
The stock of Bitcoin on exchanges does not have a direct impact on price, which is inevitable. Many times, a single sell-off of more than 500 $BTC can affect the price, especially on weekends and holidays. There are still over 2 million BTC in the exchanges, so I have said many times that the stock on exchanges does not equate to the rise or fall of BTC prices.
This data more represents the sentiment of investors. For example, from the stock data of exchanges over the last six years, we can see that the two increases in early 2020 and 2023 were accompanied by an increase in the exchange stock of Bitcoin. Why is that? Because during this period, investors did not regard $BTC as a "strategic long-term reserve" asset, especially in 2020, when it was very obvious that a large amount of Bitcoin entered the exchanges after the price increased, just to find a better time to exit.
This data more represents the sentiment of investors. For example, from the stock data of exchanges over the last six years, we can see that the two increases in early 2020 and 2023 were accompanied by an increase in the exchange stock of Bitcoin. Why is that? Because during this period, investors did not regard $BTC as a "strategic long-term reserve" asset, especially in 2020, when it was very obvious that a large amount of Bitcoin entered the exchanges after the price increased, just to find a better time to exit.
Indeed, the Greenland tariff has ended, and Trump's TACO has appeared once again.
Just now, Trump publicly stated on truthsocial that he will not implement the Greenland tariff on February 1.
The tumultuous US-EU tariff war should have come to an end. Right after the announcement, US stocks and $BTC both experienced a rapid rebound. This again proves what I have always stated, that Bitcoin is directly correlated with US stocks. When US stocks, especially tech stocks, rebound, BTC at least won't perform poorly.
From the current situation, US stocks have completely recovered the decline from Tuesday. Although Bitcoin's rebound is not as strong as that of US stocks, it is also sprinting towards $90,000. If nothing unusual happens, it shouldn't be a problem for it to return above $90,000 in the Asian timezone tomorrow.
The tumultuous US-EU tariff war should have come to an end. Right after the announcement, US stocks and $BTC both experienced a rapid rebound. This again proves what I have always stated, that Bitcoin is directly correlated with US stocks. When US stocks, especially tech stocks, rebound, BTC at least won't perform poorly.
From the current situation, US stocks have completely recovered the decline from Tuesday. Although Bitcoin's rebound is not as strong as that of US stocks, it is also sprinting towards $90,000. If nothing unusual happens, it shouldn't be a problem for it to return above $90,000 in the Asian timezone tomorrow.
Is today's decline over, and will it continue to drop tomorrow?
The answer is at the front:
Today marks the first phase of the tariff reaction. Whether it will continue to decline depends on whether there will be an escalation of tariffs or retaliatory measures between Europe and the U.S. from tonight to tomorrow, as well as whether the Supreme Court can respond quickly. If there are no further stimulating news, a consolidation and recovery is possible; however, if Trump continues to stimulate the market, the probability of a continued decline tomorrow will not be low.
Main text:
This should be the most concerning issue for most friends. First, we need to clarify the reasons for the decline. This time, the decline of $BTC has two reasons, the biggest of which is Trump's tariffs on Greenland-related countries. The tariffs imposed by the United States triggered retaliatory measures in Europe, and the U.S. intends to continue its retaliation on top of Europe’s response. The last time these 'emotional disputes' occurred was during the tariff war between the U.S. and China in April.
Today marks the first phase of the tariff reaction. Whether it will continue to decline depends on whether there will be an escalation of tariffs or retaliatory measures between Europe and the U.S. from tonight to tomorrow, as well as whether the Supreme Court can respond quickly. If there are no further stimulating news, a consolidation and recovery is possible; however, if Trump continues to stimulate the market, the probability of a continued decline tomorrow will not be low.
Main text:
This should be the most concerning issue for most friends. First, we need to clarify the reasons for the decline. This time, the decline of $BTC has two reasons, the biggest of which is Trump's tariffs on Greenland-related countries. The tariffs imposed by the United States triggered retaliatory measures in Europe, and the U.S. intends to continue its retaliation on top of Europe’s response. The last time these 'emotional disputes' occurred was during the tariff war between the U.S. and China in April.
Does working abroad on a visa still have significance under CRS?
Many friends have privately asked me whether Singapore's EP is no longer useful and whether it cannot prevent the syncing of information back to China under CRS. I would like to clarify that this applies not only to Singapore but to most CRS allied countries:
1. Singapore's EP + 183 days in Singapore means that one is definitely a tax resident of Singapore, and even satisfying the 183-day requirement within two years is considered as being a tax resident. All tax-related matters do not look at the passport, but at the tax residency, limited only to CRS version 1.0.
2. In CRS version 1.0 (which actually has no version, it's just to better distinguish the changes between the old and new CRS), Singapore does not sync user information with China as long as one is a tax resident of Singapore. However, starting in 2025, China has already contacted almost all banks and securities firms globally, and any tax resident of China (including Chinese household registration, Chinese residence) must sync information. This is also a significant change in CRS 2.0.
1. Singapore's EP + 183 days in Singapore means that one is definitely a tax resident of Singapore, and even satisfying the 183-day requirement within two years is considered as being a tax resident. All tax-related matters do not look at the passport, but at the tax residency, limited only to CRS version 1.0.
2. In CRS version 1.0 (which actually has no version, it's just to better distinguish the changes between the old and new CRS), Singapore does not sync user information with China as long as one is a tax resident of Singapore. However, starting in 2025, China has already contacted almost all banks and securities firms globally, and any tax resident of China (including Chinese household registration, Chinese residence) must sync information. This is also a significant change in CRS 2.0.
What you may not know about NYSE stock tokenization, besides 7x24 hours, what has really changed?
1. This matter has not been approved yet, and it is unknown when it will be approved. The platform itself is likely a combination of centralized and decentralized.
2. This platform can tokenize the old U.S. stocks as well as issue new tokenized stocks.
3. Both old and new platforms coexist, the New York Stock Exchange continues to have closing hours, while the new exchange maintains continuous trading. Liquidity is synchronized during opening hours through the shared Pillar engine and the fungibility of tokenized shares, allowing arbitrage to correct deviations. During non-opening hours, liquidity is mainly provided by market makers and limit order books, with plans to introduce an oracle to balance prices between different public chains.
2. This platform can tokenize the old U.S. stocks as well as issue new tokenized stocks.
3. Both old and new platforms coexist, the New York Stock Exchange continues to have closing hours, while the new exchange maintains continuous trading. Liquidity is synchronized during opening hours through the shared Pillar engine and the fungibility of tokenized shares, allowing arbitrage to correct deviations. During non-opening hours, liquidity is mainly provided by market makers and limit order books, with plans to introduce an oracle to balance prices between different public chains.
In the last three months, net inflows into US ETFs have exceeded $400 billion. Much of the ETF funds come from 401k, pensions, advisory models, target date funds, and rebalancing. These funds do not consider "expensive" or "cheap," but rather buy when they feel it is the right time, judging that the trend has already begun.
Although this money has entered US stock ETFs, it does not mean that the average is buying the entire market; ultimately, it will flow back more to the index-weighted largest assets, especially large-cap and tech-weighted assets. This generally indicates that these funds see a soft landing for the US economy, expectations of interest rate cuts, narratives of AI productivity, cash migrating from short-term bonds, and overseas funds chasing dollar assets.
In simple terms, while many still believe we are in a bear market, over $400 billion has already started to buy the dip. They are willing to believe that the trend will be better in 2026.
Although this money has entered US stock ETFs, it does not mean that the average is buying the entire market; ultimately, it will flow back more to the index-weighted largest assets, especially large-cap and tech-weighted assets. This generally indicates that these funds see a soft landing for the US economy, expectations of interest rate cuts, narratives of AI productivity, cash migrating from short-term bonds, and overseas funds chasing dollar assets.
In simple terms, while many still believe we are in a bear market, over $400 billion has already started to buy the dip. They are willing to believe that the trend will be better in 2026.
What are the bottlenecks in writing in the square? (1)
1. Ideas in my mind, but when my hands are on the keyboard, I don't know what to write.
Answer: This is the most common problem. Many friends can talk eloquently during a chat, but when it comes to the process of 'writing,' it feels like their brains have crashed. In this case, I personally suggest trying to chat with friends and recording the conversation content, and then throwing it to AI, letting AI help you get started. Over time, you'll know how to start writing.
2. I don't know how to write anything.
This is the first step many new friends take. Most of the friends want to become a KOL or a content creator, but often don't know what they should write or what field they are good at.
Answer: This is the most common problem. Many friends can talk eloquently during a chat, but when it comes to the process of 'writing,' it feels like their brains have crashed. In this case, I personally suggest trying to chat with friends and recording the conversation content, and then throwing it to AI, letting AI help you get started. Over time, you'll know how to start writing.
2. I don't know how to write anything.
This is the first step many new friends take. Most of the friends want to become a KOL or a content creator, but often don't know what they should write or what field they are good at.
The impact of tariff adjustments made by the U.S. due to Greenland on U.S. inflation!
If Trump's comprehensive tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland are really implemented, it will lead to a rise in inflation in the short term. Originally, tariffs were not a punishment for foreign countries, but a tax on the cost of imports in the United States, and ultimately, the burden will be borne by American companies, channels, and consumers, only the speed of transmission and sharing ratio will differ.
At a level like 10%, companies still have room for maneuver, as they can compress profits, delay price increases, adjust supply chains, and change production locations to absorb some of it. Therefore, the data may show a mild increase in core commodity inflation, but at 25%, it is not an adjustment; many industries will directly enter a price increase zone that they must enter, especially for categories that are not quickly substitutable, have strong bargaining power, and have rigid demand. Price transmission will be more direct and easier to trigger secondary inflation, which is what the Federal Reserve is most worried about.
At a level like 10%, companies still have room for maneuver, as they can compress profits, delay price increases, adjust supply chains, and change production locations to absorb some of it. Therefore, the data may show a mild increase in core commodity inflation, but at 25%, it is not an adjustment; many industries will directly enter a price increase zone that they must enter, especially for categories that are not quickly substitutable, have strong bargaining power, and have rigid demand. Price transmission will be more direct and easier to trigger secondary inflation, which is what the Federal Reserve is most worried about.
Russell 2000 & Ethereum & Altcoin Season (II)
According to the expected data for earnings growth in 2026 provided by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Goldman believes that 2026 should be a year of comprehensive explosion for the US stock market. The five indices include the S&P 500, equal-weighted S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, S&P MidCap 400, and Russell 2000. The expectations for these five indices are that they will exceed 2025 and 2024 in 2026.
However, the growth rates of the first three indices are relatively limited, while the S&P MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 show significant improvements, especially the earnings expectation for Russell 2000 can grow by 66%. This indicates that Goldman expects small-cap stocks to likely experience a cyclical explosion from 'earnings bottom to earnings reversal' in 2026.
However, the growth rates of the first three indices are relatively limited, while the S&P MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 show significant improvements, especially the earnings expectation for Russell 2000 can grow by 66%. This indicates that Goldman expects small-cap stocks to likely experience a cyclical explosion from 'earnings bottom to earnings reversal' in 2026.
Russell 2000 & Ethereum & Altcoin Season
My personal opinion remains that the Russell 2000 will have a certain connection with $ETH and the altcoin season. The Russell 2000 represents small-cap stocks in the US market. When the overall market liquidity is poor and risk appetite is low, funds tend to concentrate on relatively safer assets, such as the biggest safe assets this cycle, which are AI and tech stocks.
Comparison of the performance of the Russell 2000 and ETH
As the leader of altcoins, it can basically be judged that if ETH does not rise, the arrival of the altcoin season will be very difficult. Moreover, ETH and $BTC have a similar status in the political realm, both being the first and second spot ETFs, and the only two ETFs actively applied for by BlackRock. Although there is still some gap in terms of capital, the correlation between these two cryptocurrencies is the highest in terms of political relevance and narrative.
Comparison of the performance of the Russell 2000 and ETH
As the leader of altcoins, it can basically be judged that if ETH does not rise, the arrival of the altcoin season will be very difficult. Moreover, ETH and $BTC have a similar status in the political realm, both being the first and second spot ETFs, and the only two ETFs actively applied for by BlackRock. Although there is still some gap in terms of capital, the correlation between these two cryptocurrencies is the highest in terms of political relevance and narrative.
This time I filmed the entire venue of #BBWDubai2025 , recorded over 200G, interviewed more than 30 friends, with a total duration of over four hours. I am currently editing it and will first show the trailer to the friends in the square.
Just saw Binance's new Alpha and the contract has also entered the currently popular x402 track, with projects in the related track rising in turn, and the Semantic Layer is also beginning to emerge. It is a decentralized semantic layer network that gives each dApp sovereignty over transaction execution and a programmable MEV supply chain, achieving autonomous transaction ordering and control over profit distribution.
Core features include ACE application autonomous sorting, programmable MEV profit chain, fair distribution layer, and collateralizable order flow structure. Its Token $42 serves a dual role as network fuel and value anchor, used for node staking, Gas payments, AgentFi profit collateralization, and governance voting.
The team comes from Flashbots, Anoma, EigenLayer, and has received investments from top funds like Figment, Fenbushi, Hack VC, making it one of the few projects with both a capital background and tangible products.
Core features include ACE application autonomous sorting, programmable MEV profit chain, fair distribution layer, and collateralizable order flow structure. Its Token $42 serves a dual role as network fuel and value anchor, used for node staking, Gas payments, AgentFi profit collateralization, and governance voting.
The team comes from Flashbots, Anoma, EigenLayer, and has received investments from top funds like Figment, Fenbushi, Hack VC, making it one of the few projects with both a capital background and tangible products.
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