The two data that the market was most worried about at the weekend were released. I took a look and it was not bad.
The first is the US non-farm data, which showed 209,000 new jobs in June and the expected 225,000, the lowest in more than two years. The second is that the probability of a rate hike in July is still very high, but the probability of a further rate hike in September has dropped from 30% to 24%. As soon as the news came out, the U.S. stock market rose sharply, and there was an immediate rebound here, from 29,900 to around 31,000, and then fell back to around 30,000. The correlation between the two is still very strong, indicating that the funds over there account for the majority.
At present, the support of 3W has been fluctuating for more than half a month since June 22nd. It is obviously very resistant to declines. The bulls are dominant. In addition, the big brothers who held 100,000 to 10,000 coins in the past three weeks increased their holdings by 71,000 coins. Institutions are still optimistic. Maybe we will see a new high of B soon. But I still want to remind you not to dream of breaking through 6W immediately. That must be under the condition of global economic improvement. There is still a possibility of interest rate hikes now, and it is too early to release water.
In terms of operation, I do not recommend participating in the short-term 30,000 yuan unless the decline is large. If it is a long-term fixed investment, you can still continue to make it. The market has come to this point. Those who have low-priced chips in their hands do not need to care about the rise and fall. After the halving next year, the supply of big brother will become less and less, which is a long-term positive.
Let's talk about the mainstream. ETH, as expected, has returned to the trend line. It hit 1900 yesterday and is now at 1880. On the one hand, it is related to the market warming up for the Cancun upgrade in the second half of the year. On the other hand, the total number of E pledged has reached a new high of 25.5734 million. Once the big brother rushes, the second brother will quickly follow.
It has not surged upwards yet, and it is normal to take 1~2 days to digest. It is expected that there will be an independent wave of market in the future, and the target of 2000 remains unchanged.
L, after falling for 8 days, the 88~90 strong support can’t be broken, and it rises again, so it will attack 100 again, after all, the halving is not completed yet; XRP, a large investor has bought 200 million XRP from the end of February to now, I think this position is in place, 0.45~0.47 can be held for a long time; DOT, the revenue in the second quarter fell by 32% month-on-month, and the founder said that the parallel chain auction may be cancelled, and the car is too heavy, so it can’t get up, so don’t participate, let it fluctuate around 5;
UNI, the release of V4 will depend on the upgrade of E in the second half of the year, so this is linked, 5 is not a big problem in the long run; XLM, relatively good, 0.1 is not high, there is a chance to continue;
Finally, let’s look at the cottage industry. Today, 3059 rose and 1874 fell, with an increase rate of 74%. The top three ST concepts +17.52%, super computing power 14.46%, football 7.7%, and the median, 13.2%, do not feel very high. The actual increase is really average. It has a lot to do with BN’s continuous pumping, new products, and locked positions for K mining. The cottage industry originally had little funds, and now it has even less. So continue to wait. When the big brother reaches the top, the cottage industry will take turns to perform and end this small market. Don’t be too anxious.
By the way, we can look back at the related AKRMs, AKRO, and ANKR, which will also indirectly drive the privacy sector.
Summary: I read an analysis report by Wu Jihan yesterday, predicting that B will reach 125,000 in 2024, 45,000 by the end of 2023, and 63,000 when it is halved, which is pretty much the same as I expected. The biggest problem we are facing now is that in addition to the halving, we need a good story to bring in more funds and drive the copycat market, and then it will boil. This problem is not something you can consider. I think what you need to consider is to stick to this game. 2024~2025 should be the harvest season. At that time, as long as you are on the train, you will have the opportunity to make a lot of money, and even the previous cost gap may not be worth mentioning, so look further ahead.
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A few more pieces of information
1. The Aave community initiated a formal governance proposal to launch the native stable B GHO on the mainnet. This proposal hopes that Aave V3 Facilitator and FlashMinter Facilitator will introduce GHO to the Ethereum mainnet. Once the king of on-chain lending, it is comparable to COMP. Once the proposal is passed and V3 is done, it will go up a level. The price will rise from 47 to 80, which is almost doubled. It is currently hovering around 70, and there is a chance for a second rush.
2. The number of wallets participating in the Axie Infinity game has decreased by 19% in the past 30 days; it’s not that the number of people has decreased, but that there is no better gold-making effect and internal circulation mechanism. AXS has been around for nearly 3 years, and it’s no wonder that it’s not leaving. The entire game sector is like this now, a puddle of mud. We can only hope that a new gold-making platform will come out, or we can only wait until the bull comes.
3. Greed and fear index 57, greed, a bit high.
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