In the early hours of Tuesday (July 11), Bitcoin rose above $31,000 and then quickly fell back. Crypto whales accelerated their holdings of 71,000 Bitcoins, about $2.16 billion, in three weeks, proving that large investors are actively accumulating funds. According to multiple indicators on the chain, Bitcoin is at a break-even equilibrium point, approaching the "re-accumulation period".

Bitcoin price is bullish on lower timeframes, but there is no actionable price action on higher timeframes. Without the right catalysts in the respective ecosystems, Ethereum will move in lockstep with Bitcoin as the broader market prepares for the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday.

According to data from the analysis agency Santiment, Bitcoin whales seem to be actively absorbing chips during the consolidation period. In the three weeks since June 17, the total Bitcoin holdings of addresses holding 10-10,000 Bitcoins have increased by 71,000 Bitcoins, totaling about US$2.16 billion.

“Bitcoin whales have not slowed down their accumulation, even as the market in the $30,000-31,000 range has started to get boring,” Santiment wrote.

Another analysis agency, Glassnode, also holds a similar positive view. According to a tweet released early Wednesday morning, the agency pointed out that the current price of Bitcoin is at the break-even equilibrium point, and several indicators also show that Bitcoin is currently approaching the past "re-accumulation period" stage.

Is the US Securities and Exchange Commission expected to approve Bitcoin spot ETF?

According to Crypto Globe, Jay Clayton, former chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said in an interview: “When the SEC approved the Bitcoin futures ETF, the agency believed that the market provided adequate protection for end investors, but it did not see such protection in the spot market at the time, so it made a distinction.”

“I think the Wall Street institutions that have applied for Bitcoin spot ETFs now believe that these distinctions have disappeared. At present, spot products are less frictional and more efficient for investors, and the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs is irresistible,” he emphasized.

This means that the former chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission agrees that people will see the adoption of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the near future.

TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg pointed out that although the SEC has not yet approved the application for a spot Bitcoin ETF, as the industry actively resolves the SEC's concerns, it is expected to be one step closer to approval, and the agency also hopes to consolidate its power to regulate cryptocurrencies.

If a Bitcoin spot ETF comes out, it means that financial advisors will be able to invest in Bitcoin through trusted traditional financial institutions without having to open an account at a virtual currency exchange. Institutional investors may also hold positions.

At the end of June, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Global Markets (CBOE) resubmitted its application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to establish a Bitcoin spot ETF on behalf of asset management companies such as Fidelity, Invesco, and Ark Investment Management. After the first application was rejected, it made another attempt and clearly stated that Coinbase will serve as the platform to assist in supervising transactions.

At the end of June, Nasdaq also resubmitted its Bitcoin ETF application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on behalf of BlackRock, the world's leading asset management company. The initial application submitted in mid-June was rejected due to insufficient and unclear documents. BlackRock also designated Coinbase to assist in market supervision of the Bitcoin ETF.

In recent years, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has repeatedly rejected applications for the establishment of Bitcoin ETFs due to concerns that they failed to meet the standards for preventing fraud and manipulation and protecting investors. ETF funds that intend to delve deeper into the cryptocurrency field are actively seeking to break through regulatory barriers.

Bitcoin will reach $50,000

Looking ahead, Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoff Kendrick said that the price of Bitcoin is expected to reach US$50,000 by the end of the year and US$100,000 by the end of 2024.

As early as April, he expressed the view that Bitcoin would rise to $100,000. The reasons behind this include bank turmoil and other factors, including the stabilization of risky assets, the improvement of Bitcoin mining profitability, the arrival of the "halving" market, more mature supervision, the favor of institutional investors, and reduced Bitcoin price volatility.

Bitcoin will usher in a major technical event called "halving" in May 2024, which is held every four years. The reward for mining new blocks is halved, which is intended to limit long-term supply. Judging from past data, halving is usually the beginning of a bull market.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

CMTrade stated that Bitcoin remained volatile around $30,494, and the market maker protocol Swaap launched version v2, supporting the market making model established in cooperation with the financial research institution Louis Bachelier Institute, allowing users to invest funds to participate in market making and earn profits.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin's bullish momentum is still fluctuating upward, short-term bullish sentiment is evident, the bull market continues to rise, the MACD indicator is weakly hovering below the 0 axis, and the RSI indicator is weakly consolidated above the 50 balance line.

Resistance: 31031 31295

Support levels: 30374 30128

Trading strategy: bullish above 30648, target 31031 31295