Market Analysis 5.2
Good morning, brothers.
Has the cryptocurrency market hit the bottom? Is a deep V reversal possible?
Let’s take a look at today’s analysis.
Yesterday we experienced a dismal decline.
U.S. spot ETFs saw an outflow of over $500 million, breaking a record.
But after Powell’s speech, as we predicted, the market began to rebound.
After the Fed’s interest rate decision last night,
What did Powell say? Bitcoin Eagle has summarized a few key points for you:
(1) Unless inflation moves toward 2%, there will be no rate cut
(2) The next meeting is unlikely to raise interest rates (good news. If it indicates a rate hike, BTC will fall another 10%)
(3) When will the rate cut be?
Bao said that the unexpected weakness in the labor market may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates. If the unemployment rate (currently 3.8%) rises by more than 0.2%, the Fed may consider cutting interest rates. The recent decision on whether the cryptocurrency market can reverse deeply depends on the two important data released at 8:30 tomorrow night: (1) US unemployment rate in April, expected to be 3.80%. Higher than expected is positive, lower than expected is negative. (2) Non-agricultural employment, expected to be 250,000 (previous value 303,000). Higher than expected is positive, lower than expected is negative. There is a 30% chance that it will be positive for the cryptocurrency market. Why is the probability lower? Because the small non-agricultural data released last night was higher than expected, indicating that the labor market is still strong. However, the current pessimism has reached its peak, and it should be difficult for BTC to fall sharply again. The future is highly uncertain. At present, we are facing the situation of high inflation in the United States, the possibility of intensified international conflicts, and the situation of Mentougou releasing a large amount of BTC. Therefore, lower expectations and do not chase the rebound unless the situation is reversed. Even with such a big drop, don't be scared by panic and sell all your stocks.
Hold some spot stocks and wait for opportunities, and then keep enough bullets to prevent further drops.
The cryptocurrency market is essentially a highly speculative bubble asset market, which is prone to ups and downs. If you want to get 10 times the return, you have to bear the corresponding risks.