The future of Bitcoin is uncertain, but here are some possible outcomes ¹:
*Bull Case:*
- *Global economy:* If the global economy continues to struggle, Bitcoin's role as a fair and resilient asset with a fixed supply could become attractive.
- *Block space demand:* The increased demand for block space on Bitcoin's network due to innovations like ordinals, BRC-20 tokens, and Runes could lead to higher utility and fees for miners.
- *Lightning Network:* The growing adoption of the Lightning Network could result in Bitcoin becoming more of a payment method rather than just a store of value.
- *Spot Bitcoin ETFs:* The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs could funnel between $30 billion to $300 billion into Bitcoin.
- *Digital asset reporting rules:* The new digital asset reporting rules set to take effect in December 2024 could ease rules around the reporting and holding of cryptocurrencies for companies.
*Bear Case:*
- *Security:* Concerns over Bitcoin's long-term security due to the decreasing block reward.
- *Short-term sell pressure:* Short-term sell pressure could negatively impact Bitcoin's price.
- *Inscriptions:* The contentious debate about 'inscriptions' on the Bitcoin blockchain could lead to a potential ideological clash within the Bitcoin community.
- *Environmental and political fall-outs:* Continued attacks on Bitcoin's environmental impacts and political hostility towards cryptocurrency could threaten its price.
- *AML laws:* The implications of anti-money laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) laws could be a challenge for Bitcoin's future.
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