Bitcoin Halving & The "Phase Shift" Of The Current Cycle
The Core Importance of Halving
Bitcoin Halving (the halving of block rewards) is the "heart" mechanism of the network, helping Bitcoin to resist inflation and maintain digital scarcity. Every 4 years, the supply of
$BTC newly released to the market is cut by 50%. History has shown that Halving has always been the "starting gun" for long-term growth cycles (Bull Run) due to the impact of the Supply - Demand law (Supply decreases, price increases).
Why is this price cycle "strange"?
For the first time in 15 years of history, Bitcoin does not follow the old script for 3 main reasons:
1. Breaking the previous peak before the event (Pre-Halving ATH): In the past, BTC only reached a new peak after Halving from 6-12 months. In this cycle, BTC broke the historical peak (73,700 USD) right before the Halving took place. This shows that demand has exploded earlier than expected.
2. The Spot ETF Boost: This is an unprecedented variable. The participation of spot ETF funds (BlackRock, Fidelity...) has completely changed the market structure. The huge capital flow from traditional finance (TradFi) has created active buying pressure, absorbing supply faster than the mining rate, overshadowing the impact of the supply reduction from Halving.
3. The Maturation of the Asset: BTC is currently more sensitive to FED interest rates and macroeconomic factors than just following the 4-year cycle of miners. It is gradually being regarded as true "Digital Gold" in the eyes of major institutions.
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