Yesterday (11 APR), the U.S. PPI annual rate recorded at 2.1%, slightly lower than the expected 2.2%, mildly soothing the market’s shock over the previous day’s CPI data. However, U.S. Treasury yields still oscillated at high levels, with the two-year/ten-year yields currently at 4.920% /4.533%. Federal Reserve officials are also hastily retracting some of their earlier dovish statements and find themselves in a dilemma amidst persistent high inflation data, a strong economic situation, and the multifaceted pressures of the upcoming elections in the second half of the year.
On the other hand, the European Central Bank announced yesterday that it has maintained the three main interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time and hinted at the start of rate cuts soon. President Lagarde stated that they do not preset the interest rate path, do not rely on the Federal Reserve, and do not target exchange rates.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
Source: SignalPlus & TradingView
In the realm of cryptocurrencies, as the halving event approaches, net inflows into BTC ETFs have slowed and actual volatility has further decreased, with forward Future Yield trending downwards by approximately 0.4% to 0.6%. In terms of options, implied volatility has once again decreased by 2–4% Vol. Selling short-term options continues to be favored by traders, primarily focusing on BTC options expiring on 19 APR and 26 APR. ETH trading is relatively balanced, possibly because the exposure of Implied Volatility relative to Realized Volatility has been significantly reduced during the selling activity of the previous few days.
Source: Deribit （As of 12 APR 8:00 UTC）
Source: SignalPlus,ATM Vol continues to decline.
Source: SignalPlus, IV vs RV
Data Source: Deribit, BTC transaction distribution
Data Source: Deribit, ETH transaction distribution
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
