Let me show you some data today:

It is not surprising that the SEC sued Binance, but the time chosen is worth recalling.

A picture is used to sort out the SEC’s past major actions related to the currency market:

In November 2018, the SEC sued EtherDelta (trading platform);

In September 2019, the SEC sued Blockone (EOS);

In October 2019, SEC sued Telegram (TON);

In December 2020, the SEC sued Ripple (XRP);

In August 2022, the SEC ordered Bloom Protocol to register Tokens;

In October 2022, SEC investigated Yuga Labs (Boring Ape, APE);

In February 2023, the SEC investigated Kraken (exchange);

At the end of March 2023, the SEC sued Justin Sun (TRX);

In June 2023, SEC sued Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Coinbase...

In November 2017, the SEC approved Bitcoin futures;

In November 2021, the SEC approved the Bitcoin futures ETF…

After reading this, I don’t quite believe that the SEC did not manipulate or influence the trend of the cryptocurrency market.

The release of positive factors is basically to create high points, no need to say more.

Look at these prosecutions and investigations. There were none before October 2018, none before August 2019, and none before September 2022.

The rule is that SEC prosecutions and investigations tend to occur near the bottom of a bear market, or when a bear market turns to a bull market, or when a bull market is about to start.

The SEC has rarely prosecuted or investigated crypto institutions during the bear market downturn.

It is also known from public information that Sam from FTX is the second largest donor to Biden’s presidential campaign, and Gary is the chairman of the SEC appointed by Biden, and Gary has presided over many meetings with Sam and FTX executives, and many of FTX’s measures have received guidance from the SEC, of ​​course we are talking about FTXUS. Moreover, from its inception to its end, FTX has never been prosecuted by the SEC or CFTC, and even Sam can enter and leave the United States very freely. You must know that FTX’s contract leverage and even the tokenization of US stocks are the most radical in the industry, but Gary treats them with courtesy.

This is...

Finally, it is speculated that there will be no further interest rate hike on June 15, and it is estimated that the US dollar tightening cycle is coming to an end.

Possibility 1: The Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates, which will drive a wave of market sentiment, and then fall back in the second half of the year.

Possibility 2: The Fed stops raising interest rates, but continues to shrink its balance sheet. BTC fluctuates and sucks blood from the altcoins until the third quarter, the end of the year, or early 2024, when it stops shrinking its balance sheet and the market starts to move.

I personally prefer the second one.

The trend has not ended yet, the market is still there!

Why is Xiong Ge still bullish so far? Please see the table below. In 2019, the bull market rose by 442%, and the highest point of the rebound reached 70% of the highest point of the previous bull market, thus mobilizing retail investors to participate enthusiastically.

The 2023 bull market has a 200% increase, but has only rebounded to 44% of the peak of the previous bull market. Neither the increase nor the rebound strength is enough.

Most of the copycats have not performed yet. Even the leading ones, such as LDO RNDR CFX SSV ARB OP HIGH MAGIC, did not increase much and later fell back.

Shanzhai represents the market sentiment. If the market sentiment is not rising, no matter whether it is retail investors inside or outside the circle, they will not come in to participate in the transaction.

Many people will ask, why do we need to mobilize the emotions of retail investors to participate? The answer is very simple. The main force needs liquidity to sell. How to improve liquidity? There is only one answer, a large number of leeks come to take over.

A sharp rise is followed by a sharp fall, and a slight rise is followed by a slight fall

How to understand it? Crashing the market requires money and energy. Only when there is enough profit can there be enough energy to smash the market. If the increase is too small, the profit is not enough, and the energy is not enough to smash the market deeply.

So Brother Xiong has always believed that the trend has not ended and the market is still there.

If the rebound in 2019 reaches 70% of the previous bull market, then the highest point in 2023 may be around 48,000, usually in July. This is just a personal guess. If you guess right, you are lucky. If you guess wrong, it is normal.

Continue to be bullish in the medium term!

Back and forth, bulls and bears, you sing, I come on stage. Monkey market. Mutual praise

The bears were just showing off yesterday, shouting the slogan of Bitcoin 10,000. After a nap, they are back again. Short-term contracts make money by grasping the rhythm. Those who talk about trends probably won’t say anything.

As for copycats: Hong Kong is finished, Apple VR is finished, and Cancun upgrades will be in October. Lsd sector looks strong again, Ldo is ridiculously strong, Fis is also rising, pay attention to them if there is a pullback, and there are also fxs, etc. Do short-term

History tells us that when any black swan event occurs, we will climb back to where we fell. Of course, this does not mean that we have to go through another big waterfall and a long time to get back up. I just want to say that every event is just the main force digging a pit for retail investors to step into, making them feel desperate and run away at a loss.

Don't panic and sell every time something happens. This is obviously irrational. You should pay attention to subsequent developments and market conditions. Will there be a continuous decline or will the news be digested in a short period of time? This will indeed make investors feel frustrated, but it will not lead to despair.

Don't forget that there is a Federal Reserve meeting next week, and the market generally believes that the probability of suspending interest rate hikes in June is very high. It can be used as a life-saving straw to reverse the current situation. Let's take it one step at a time. I think it is too early to admit defeat or make a final conclusion so quickly. I believe that there are miracles in the cryptocurrency world, and that things can change in a very short period of time, just like Bitcoin was still at $17,000 at the end of last year. Who would have thought that it would return to $30,000 in three months? The cryptocurrency world is a resilient market. The harder it falls, the higher it rises.

And now, do you think BTC and ETH have fallen back? In fact, they are still in the range of the past two months. The biggest victims of this round of market adjustment are mainly altcoins, but BTC and ETH are the "spiritual pillars" of the currency circle. As long as these two coins have not fallen, it cannot be said that this market has no hope. So in the short term, I will remain cautious and not be overly pessimistic. At least wait until next week to see how the market will develop.