Understanding the Bitcoin Halving Phases

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Pre-Halving Rally: With the Bitcoin Halving set for April 2024, a significant event is observed about 60 days before - the Pre-Halving Rally. Historically, this rally starts ahead of time, signaling strong market anticipation. As we approach closer, Bitcoin transitions from this rally phase to a retracement phase. This retracement, typically occurring 14 to 28 days before the halving, mirrors past trends, with Bitcoin already showing an 11% pullback last week.

Final Pre-Halving Retrace: The retrace phase, occurring roughly 14 to 28 days before the halving, has shown variations in depth over the years: a 38% retrace in 2016 and 20% in 2020. With Bitcoin now 30 days away from the Halving, experiencing a recent 11% pullback, this phase could be milder and shorter compared to previous cycles, reflecting a possible shallower retrace.

Re-Accumulation: Following the retracement is the re-accumulation phase, lasting up to 150 days. This phase often tests investors' patience, as the excitement of the Halving fades without immediate significant returns. However, this cycle might be unique, with re-accumulation potentially forming around new all-time highs, possibly leading to a shorter and less pronounced phase before the next uptrend.

Parabolic Uptrend: The final stage is the parabolic uptrend,
where Bitcoin historically sees its most substantial growth, traditionally lasting around 385 days. Given the current market dynamics suggesting an accelerated cycle, this period might shorten, signaling a quicker transition to rapid growth.

In essence, while historical patterns provide a blueprint, the current cycle exhibits unique traits suggesting a potentially different trajectory for Bitcoin's price action in the context of its halving phases.

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Chart by @rektcapital