May 4, 2023 Grandpa checks in

Yesterday's #sui performed well. B An opened first and opened high. At the opening, it could basically be sold at a price of 1.8. OK adopted a call auction, and the opening price was also around 1.8. However, due to technical failures, the order could not be cancelled until after 11 o'clock in the evening, resulting in some people being unable to cancel the order according to B An's price in the first time and buying some at a high price. Lao Xu also said that there would be a compensation plan for this. At present, the price of SUI is still fluctuating at 1.3, which is also the price range of market consensus. Since the ecosystem of SUI has not yet started, it is not recommended to take over SUI. There is still a lot of selling pressure in batches. Our main purpose is to conduct a wave of arbitrage against hot spots.

This time, I took everyone to play a wave of OK new shares. Although it was unlocked in batches, the book profit of the full lottery number was close to 100,000 R, and the full lottery numbers in this wave were easy to get. As long as there were more than 100 OKBs in the lottery, they were all full lottery numbers. The cost should be around 1,000U, which means that the first unlocking will pay back the money, and then you can hedge according to the situation. My suggestion is that SUI's short-term hot spot is still there, and there is still 1 month before the next unlocking. The direct decline of this price is limited, so there is no rush to hedge. If there is a sharp rise later, we will hedge at a high level. Anyway, every month in the future will be profitable, just treat it as a salary.

The logic of SUI's short-term bullishness is entirely based on hot spots + capital, rather than fundamentals. The first wave of large-scale low-priced chips flowing into the market requires funds to take over. More than 200 million low-priced chips remain in the market, which can maintain a circulating market value of about 300 million. Behind this, there is the power of investors and project parties. SUI is a public chain with the same status as APT. Retail investors have a precedent. At the beginning, APT was not optimistic because of the thin ecological projects, and was eventually educated. Of course, from the perspective of fundamentals and chip structure, SUI is definitely not recommended for long-term participation, so short-term play requires good risk management.

In terms of the market, Powell announced yesterday that the interest rate would continue to rise by 25 basis points, but he did not give a signal to stop the rate hike, and even issued a hawkish statement that he was "strongly committed to reducing the inflation rate back to 2%". According to market analysis, the wording used in this Fed statement is roughly similar to the end of the rate hike in 2006, and the market is calling for this rate hike to be the last one, and the B-circle market has performed accordingly. This time, the rate hike was not stopped. In my opinion, it leaves room for the market performance in May and June. Of course, the general direction has entered our profit-taking range, so we are bullish at this position but not long, and we are mainly waiting for opportunities to take profits.

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