币姥爷

March 3, 2025

The market had a significant rebound, and the direct reason for this wave of increase was Trump’s announcement. He stated on Twitter that he would issue an executive order to advance a cryptocurrency strategic reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA. He later mentioned that BTC and ETH would be the core of the U.S. cryptocurrency strategic reserve. BTC surged to a high of 95,000, with a maximum increase close to 20%, and the average price increase also exceeding 10%. ETH’s maximum increase was 22%, leading to a better performance than Bitcoin. Others like SOL, XRP, and various altcoins also saw considerable rebound levels.

It has been proven that the judgment on this market was correct, although many people are still waiting for lower prices, waiting for 75,000, waiting for 2,000. I have mentioned several times that I held 90% of my position at this price, which is almost my personal maximum position, because I need to keep some USDT as margin. Of course, I didn't make any money during this rebound, because bottom-fishing works that way; it’s impossible to accurately buy all positions at 2,100 USD for ETH. When bottom-fishing in batches, there will always be a part that gets stuck, but the key point is that this wave has maintained critical support, preventing the market from continuing to turn bearish.

Currently, regarding the understanding of the market, I tend to treat it as a rebound from an oversold condition, or say it is a successful rebound after three attempts at bottoming, but this does not mean a direct reversal of the market, especially with Trump’s backing for this wave, which makes me worry: the choppy market has not ended. Since I am almost fully invested at low levels, I have already sold off part of my position that was more than 10% above the low price, releasing 10% of the funds. Next, I will observe the meeting on the 7th to see if there are any substantial positive developments.

In general, I always believe that this stage is relatively suitable for entering the market because the market fluctuations are quite large, and I am looking forward to the market in the second half of the year even more. Any operations we perform now aim to hold cryptocurrencies better. Micro-operations can be executed based on cash flow conditions, such as whether to take short-term profits and how much to take. According to historical experience, the short-term fluctuation pattern of the market will not change, so it is essential to make sure that your positions are comfortable at any price.

I haven't mentioned rebates for a long time. If you're interested, click on my avatar to check the pinned article. The latest one returned 2,600 USDT over the past two weeks.

It's been a long time since I mentioned commission returns. If you need it, check out the introduction in my pinned article.

Woken up by the market, it turns out Trump is calling the shots!
Feeling good~ This wave just hit perfectly.

March 2, 2025

First, let's look at two news items. The first is that Bybit's stolen ETH, on-chain data shows that after days of washing, 499,000 ETH has been reduced to only 156,000 ETH, over 300 million. For the market, there isn't much pressure left to digest this. The second is the large unlocking of SOL, with about 9 million SOL set to unlock this month, over 1 billion. However, given the recent decline of SOL and the support at the $130 range, the so-called unlocking bearish sentiment has already been priced in, as previous SOL unlocks have not significantly impacted the market. This time, it is mainly compounded by the retreat of meme coins.

From the news perspective, recent bearish sentiments have already been fully reflected in the market, coupled with the daily support in technical patterns, I believe this wave of decline is likely to stabilize. This includes yesterday's slight pullback, which has shown a bit of a trap for shorts. Of course, after every sharp drop, there is a period of sideways consolidation, and I generally recommend holding some low-priced positions to flexibly make trades, not entirely for the sake of capturing small profits but mainly to effectively avoid having a large amount of chips shaken out.

However, I should also mention that I do not recommend making trades based on news. Generally speaking, when news reaches retail investors, it has often already fully fermented, and many news items are just tools for the main players to manipulate the market. Especially with many altcoins, there are frequent so-called positive news that continually builds faith, leading people to hold on tightly for the whales to take over. Conversely, when a particular asset does have some intrinsic value but is subjected to various negative news (FUD), we can consider buying on dips.

In terms of price, Bitcoin has risen quite high, so if it pulls back, the support levels are not very clear; we can only wait for it to break out or reach the dense range around 75,000 points. As for ETH, despite experiencing a sharp decline over the past month, looking at a longer timeframe, the area around 2,000 points is also the lowest point from last year, so this support is quite strong, and it is crucial for ETH's future movement.

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March 1, 2025

In the blink of an eye, the first quarter is entering its last month. As I mentioned before, the market may not start to heat up until the second quarter. In fact, the recent drop of Bitcoin to 80,000 was within expectations, including the decline of Ethereum. Although the incident of Bybit being hacked had a black swan effect, the overall price is still not too outrageous, and several rounds of declines are a necessary process before the market starts. Of course, whether the second quarter will arrive as expected still depends on the situation in the next 1-2 months, because based on the 4-year cycle, there shouldn't be a prolonged period of consolidation before this year's bull market begins.

It has been proven that when prices fall and market panic spreads, the entry prices are often quite low. Those who bought yesterday saw Bitcoin and Ethereum rise by more than 5%, and some altcoins rebounded by over 10% in a single day. Personally, I bought more before the decline, so yesterday was mainly about recharging everyone's faith. If there are very low prices and chips, it might be a good idea to take some of those out first, as many people were fully invested yesterday, and a slight release can be easier.

Of course, in my view, the daily chart from yesterday represents Ethereum's three bottom tests, or it can also be considered a second test of the pin price on the daily level, which has a chance to form a rebound on the daily chart. However, the strength of this rebound seems not very strong, and a bit of defense would suffice. Personally, I remain optimistic about the upcoming market. On one hand, from a technical perspective, it is a relatively standard support level; on the other hand, regarding market sentiment, when the market predicts lower prices, it is often difficult to reach in the short term. Many people have already set their sights on 70,000 for Bitcoin yesterday.

Lastly, there is a piece of news: according to Bloomberg terminal data, there will be the first crypto summit held at the White House on March 7, where Trump will support and deliver a speech. For Trump, he probably does not wish to see the collapse of cryptocurrencies, so this meeting at the White House may release some friendly policies. Coupled with the recent market experiencing several drops that were considered bad, there are signs of main players entering the altcoin market, so this could be a turning point.

Thank you for your attention and likes.

February 28, 2025

The market has continued to decline, and this wave of decline is mainly driven by BTC. Although altcoins seem to have not followed the decline, on one hand, it is because they have already dropped significantly before, with many of them having their values halved at high positions, and some have dropped by 90%. Further declines would be impolite. The main force behind BTC is no longer completely the big players in the crypto circle; after the ETF, various capital, including Wall Street, has entered the game. Of course, this is also a characteristic of every bull market, which brings new buying power, but this time it is capital that is buying.

You may have noticed that BlackRock has frequently transferred coins to exchanges recently, mainly BTC + ETH. In fact, this is not BlackRock selling coins themselves, but rather the ETF selling coins. The coins of the ETF are managed by BlackRock, and with the recent price drop, it is certain that ETF players are choosing to sell, so BlackRock must sell the coins accordingly, which is essentially helping clients sell coins. Previously, the price of BTC was driven up by ETF buying; if the ETF is offloading, it will definitely fall. Let’s clarify the logic first.

Understanding this point, I can only say that the downward trend of BTC has not stopped, just like the previous rise had some inertia. BTC had been oscillating between 90,000 and 100,000. If it can maintain this oscillating range, then this 'halftime break' wouldn’t be so uncomfortable. However, it has indeed broken down, and now we can only continuously look for support, hoping that the support level can hold. The market's relatively subjective support is around 75,000, which is a dense area of chips during the upward process.

As for altcoins, I haven't built up my positions much, mainly focusing on ETH, and I have added some AI. ETH has definitely suffered a considerable loss, but the selling pressure from Ethereum's ETF is relatively small. In any case, the price drop during historical trends is an opportunity for long-term holders; however, being in this situation inevitably leads to panic. Personally, due to relatively reasonable cost control, I am not panicking, but I also need to rely on faith to hold on. If position management is decent, I would suggest buying more as the price drops. Overall, this price represents the third bottom test for ETH, and the probability of holding is still there. If it breaks down, then we will wait for the market in the second half of the year; it is not the first time experiencing this.

Thank you for your attention and likes. Let’s hold on together.

February 27, 2025

Indeed, the weak rebound of the market indicates a short-term pullback again. It is worth noting that the main force behind this decline is BTC, along with mainstream coins including ETH, while altcoins not only did not follow the decline but some sectors even rebounded strongly. The only altcoin sector I invested in - AI new coins - is already profitable. This also indicates that as long as the coins we choose are not problematic, it is relatively easy to generate profits after gradually building positions during the decline to lower costs. Holding onto them a bit longer during a bull market can lead to substantial gains.

As for BTC, it has remained at a high level without much decline, which may be the biggest concern. After all, altcoins have generally halved after months of decline, and if BTC drops by several tens of thousands of dollars, some altcoins' market capitalizations still have room for further exploration. However, when everyone in the market is worried, I believe we should actually hold our ground, right? Additionally, I looked at the US stock market, which is currently testing support at a daily low level, meaning the US stocks have not broken down, and the probability of BTC breaking down is not high.

Moreover, last year’s market had BTC moving independently. After the ETF approval, the capital primarily from Wall Street focused on BTC, so even if there is a sell-off, it might not drag down altcoins too much, as the main forces have changed. In fact, the recent situation where altcoins are not following the decline somewhat illustrates this. The reason I bought some AI coins to play with, besides considering their popularity and concept, is mainly due to their price and market capitalization, which have dropped 80-90% from their relative highs, providing a sufficiently high safety cushion and showing some characteristics of a bottom.

Last year, when the market was in a FOMO state, I advised everyone to stay calm, only sell and not buy, selling in batches. Many people said they would miss out on a great bull market. Now, I am telling everyone to buy in batches at the bottom, and being stuck in left-side trading by one or two dozen points is quite normal, but many still feel that the price will go lower. To be honest, I can't predict the bottom position, just as I can't predict the top; I can only say that it is suitable to sell when it's the right time to sell, and now it’s the same in reverse, only that it’s time to buy at the right price.

Thank you for your attention and likes. Let’s hold on together for the arrival of the bull market. For more questions, you can join 币安聊天群 for discussion.

February 26, 2025

Yesterday's market caused a relatively serious panic sentiment to spread, and it currently seems to have stabilized in the short term. However, the strength of this rebound is not strong. If it can hold steady without continuing to decline by tomorrow, then this wave of three bottom tests can be considered complete. Based on experience, the prices during yesterday's panic sentiment had a high winning chance for bottom fishing. If calculated from the lowest point, the overall rebound amplitude is generally about 10 points, and buying during panic sentiment can cater to both short-term and long-term operations.

In general, if there is no further decline in a short period but instead maintains a slight increase and sideways movement, then in a couple of days, the probability of a collective rebound in the market is quite high. Relative to yesterday's average price, there will generally be a profit of about 20-30 points. If this kind of trend appears in the next few days, then naturally, one can exit the positions bought at the bottom yesterday. As for myself, I would reset my position to around 80%.

With the market downturn, besides feeling the market's panic sentiment, I noticed a common issue: It's already a bear market, can we still bottom fish? In reality, we are executing left-side bottom fishing. The reason we make large purchases at the second or third bottom testing positions is that the probability of forming a bottom at this position is relatively high, but it does not mean it won't break down. The core of left-side bottom fishing is to judge that the price has entered a high cost-performance ratio range, starting to buy more as it falls, ultimately overcoming the market with a lower average price.

Of course, when we operate in practice, we can do some swing trading within the range to increase the margin for error. For example, in this wave of market movement, if the market achieves a 30% rebound, a 10% position for bottom fishing could bring a 3% return on the overall position's principal. By doing this a few times, our cost basis can be lower. Many people cherish the shares they buy, especially fearing to sell too early, but experience tells us that as long as we do not chase the rise after selling too early, there is a high probability of having the opportunity to buy back at a lower price. The key is to maintain a good rhythm.

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February 24, 2025

According to the on-chain data, large amounts of ETH and USDT transfers appeared in the suspected bybit address. Basically, bybit is buying Ethereum through some institutions or over-the-counter transactions, which is why the price of ETH is relatively strong. However, since bybit's large orders are not purchased in the secondary market, it seems that the effect of boosting the price of Ethereum may not be very obvious at present, but this huge gap of 500,000 cannot be made up at once. The market of Ethereum in stages can only be better, at least maintaining the status quo.

However, it should be noted that in theory, the oscillation pattern will not end so quickly, so even if Ethereum strengthens, the probability of pulling too high in an independent market is not high, unless Bitcoin rises, but I think this situation needs to wait. In fact, judging from the trend of Ethereum, there is still some suppression on the market, but in any case, now is a window period that is more suitable for building positions. It is precisely because the market is relatively weak that the price is cost-effective.

In addition, there are some recent oscillating market conditions, such as the AI ​​sector I mentioned a while ago, which has a relatively large range of oscillations. For example, yesterday SWARMS had a wave of explosive pull-ups due to good news, so I sold the pending orders I bought at a low point and bought them back at a low price. In this way, if the volatility lasts long enough, my holding cost will become lower and lower, which will allow me to hold it longer with more confidence. Including AI16Z and FARTCOIN, the range of fluctuations is 30 to 50 points, which is still very large.

For the subsequent market this year, if you also insist that the bull market is still there, or at least there is another big market, in addition to boldly holding, it is also important to take which targets. First of all, BTC, if it is a large fund, it can still be considered, but if you want a bigger increase, I think it is better to bet on Ethereum and its ecology. The hot spots of inscriptions have boosted BTC to a certain extent, and the hot spots of PvP have boosted SOL and its ecological projects. Once the new hot spots are in Ethereum, the results can be imagined. As for the cottage, the past two rounds of market conditions have been serious. The cottage season is difficult, so we have to lower the expectations of the cottage, or even greatly reduce it.

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February 23, 2025

The theft of 500,000 Ethereums is gradually weakening its destructive power on bybit and even the cryptocurrency circle. In the future, it will basically only affect the Ethereum market. The price of Ethereum plummeted immediately after the theft. The main reason is that in previous hacker attacks, the coins would be sold and cashed out as soon as possible, but this time it is different. The amount is the highest in history. According to historical large-scale hacker attacks, hackers often deposit funds first, which may take several months or even several years before they move.

500,000 Ethereums, 1.5 billion US dollars, we may not feel anything, but I will give you an example. It takes 13.6 years to mix 100 coins every day, and even 1.3 years to sell 1,000 coins every day. Think about it, waking up every morning, you can get more than 2 million RNB, ten years a day, so this is not immediately concrete for 500,000 Ethereums. Of course, the hacker this time has already exchanged it for BTC holdings through the mixing protocol, and will not enjoy it a little bit.

However, the price of Ethereum is slowly rising, why? When we focus on the Ethereum in the hands of hackers, we ignore the short position of 500,000 Ethereum bybit. It is precisely because bybit has to use its own revenue to make up for this deficit, which means that it must buy back 500,000 Ethereum, whether now or in the future. In this case, it is not necessarily a bad thing for the price of Ethereum, because the Ethereum of hackers may not be sold immediately, but bybit will definitely buy back 500,000 Ethereum as soon as possible. According to the data on the chain, bybit has bought back more than 100,000 Ethereum through OTC and other channels. This may be the reason behind the return of the price of Ethereum to 2,800 US dollars.

In fact, before the theft of bybit, the price of Ethereum had tried to break through the resistance of 2,800 US dollars. At present, it has only returned to the previous position. It is not easy for hackers to sell 500,000 ETH in a short time. Instead, bybit has to take out 1.5 billion real money to enter the Ethereum market. In addition, after the February 3rd pin, the price of Ethereum has always hovered in a certain range. I have said many times that it can be bought, and I will be more optimistic about the next trend.

Thank you for your attention and likes.

February 22, 2025

Two pieces of news, one bad and one good. Let me start with the bad news, which I believe everyone knows. That is, more than 500,000 ETH were stolen from bybit, which is worth about 1.5 billion US dollars. It should be the largest amount of stolen money at present. According to SlowMist's analysis, this hacker attack mainly confused the transfer signature of the cold wallet in advance, obtained the multi-signature permission of the cold wallet, and then stole the pen. Another detail is that the device with three multi-signature permissions was implanted with a Trojan program by the hacker in advance. At present, there are details pointing to the fact that this attack was done by North Korean hackers. If it is true, it will definitely not be recovered.

This is a huge crisis for bybit and its users, but fortunately, bybit has considerable profits, and it can basically make back this loss in one year. The peak period of currency withdrawal has passed, and there is no run crisis. But for Ethereum and its holders, it is bad news. At present, bybit has no plan to buy the stolen ETH, and the hacker has sold 20,000 pieces. If the hacker continues to sell, it will inevitably form a huge selling pressure on the price of Ethereum. In fact, the good momentum of the market yesterday was brought back to its original shape by this blow. The short-term market depends on the actions of hackers and bybit.

Let's talk about the good news. The first batch of compensation for the bankrupt FTX has been received one after another. Public data shows that the total amount is 7-8 billion US dollars, and it is mainly issued in the form of stablecoins. For the crypto market, this batch of stablecoins is an important capital transfusion. In fact, the strong market yesterday may be affected by this batch of funds. The funds in FTX before were basically the original funds in the currency circle. Although the prices of BTC, SOL, etc. have risen sharply compared to before, some of these funds must have a strong desire to enter the market again.

The recent market is basically dominated by consolidation. In fact, the price on February 3 was basically a staged low, and yesterday's strong market would have continued if it were not affected by the bybit theft. However, the impact of any sudden event on the trend is only short-term and temporary. I think if there is a low price opportunity next, it is still a good opportunity to buy and hold. For specific targets, Ethereum will continue to be the main one, supplemented by DeFi blue chips.

Thanks for your attention.

February 21, 2025

Yesterday's PI launch had a general effect. Although there are still many aunts and uncles whose coins cannot be mapped, the price has fallen by almost half compared to the over-the-counter market. If the project party does not play dirty, the price will be even worse if all the mined coins are released. At present, the actual circulation of PI is a mystery. It is estimated to be more than 1 billion, and there are hundreds of millions of recharges into the exchange. If calculated based on the total amount of 100 billion, it is unimaginable that a CX project ranks in the top 20 in terms of total market value. The only reason is that the actual circulation is small.

The recent market is not very strong. The cottage sector has fallen a lot recently. In addition, the newly listed coins have basically opened high and closed low recently, so retail investors began to want to make money by shorting. However, this one-way strategy is definitely not effective. For example, shorting PI can make some money, but if shorting IP (yes, two different coins), it will face a violent short-selling market. From $2 sideways, it was as high as $9 last night. Many people woke up and saw that the price did not rise much, and the position was gone.

I don’t know if you have noticed that in the investment market, the duration of following the trend is very short, which often depends on the number of people and funds that follow up. For example, the airdrop on the chain was very popular before, and many studios squeezed in, but then it didn’t work; for example, there were several stories of getting rich quickly in the dog-hunting game, and then investors flocked in and started to lose money; the secondary market is the same. When the market consensus is that it should be shorted when it goes online, it often faces a huge risk of shorting.

In fact, this rule is the same in the secondary market. When the vast majority of people in the market are not optimistic about the market this year and think that the bull market is over, we should consider going against the current. It may be difficult to remain independent in investment, but going against the majority, choosing to stick to it in adversity, and choosing to retreat at the high point, you can already become one of the 20%. What the current market needs most is our perseverance.

Thank you for your attention and likes.

February 20, 2025

PI has been opened. According to the OTC transaction situation, the market price of PI is about 2U, but it has begun to approach 1 dollar. The contract price is inverted. The total amount is 100 billion, but the actual circulation is between 1 billion and 2 billion. It is not ruled out that the main force suddenly releases a large number of chips into the market. This circulating market value is basically priced according to a popular MEME, which is reasonable. However, considering that the token economic model of PI is not clear, I will definitely not blindly participate in the secondary market. I will mainly watch the show and see if there are any arbitrage opportunities.

The coins launched in recent months have basically opened high and closed low. Some of the coins with particularly high traffic may pull up after they are launched, or the main force takes over a large number of chips and blows up the market while pulling up, but the general trend is down. PI is the first large-scale CX project launched in the currency circle. It is really hard to judge the actual trend, but I think it is difficult to pull it up in the current market environment. As for the degree of madness of the aunts and uncles, I have not seen it, and I am also looking forward to seeing the final trend of PI.

There is really nothing much to say about the recent market, it has been sideways. Vitalik Buterin has made many public appearances recently, and it seems that he has taken over the management of the foundation. He advocates the idea of ​​"ruling by doing nothing" for the foundation, which I agree with. The most important thing for an ecosystem is to let them play by themselves, rather than to control them all the time. Why do I think Ethereum is still the future? In addition to the strongest innovation in the ecosystem and the fact that big investors dare to put funds on the chain, there is also my trust in Vitalik Buterin. The so-called investment is to invest in people. Looking around, are there any people in the currency circle who are more worthy of your investment? If there are, then bet on them.

I think the recent market is a good time to build a position, especially for Ethereum and mainstream currencies. Compared with the previous fomo market, the prices are basically cut in half. I think there will still be a bull market this year. Of course, it is hard to say how crazy the final bull market will be. After all, there are too many copycats in the market now, and even Trump and Pi have come to divide the liquidity. Don't expect too much from copycats, just configure appropriately.

Thank you for your attention and likes.

February 19, 2025

In one more day, PI will be launched on various exchanges. To be honest, it is still difficult to understand that so many exchanges are gradually accepting the fact that PI is going live. From the perspective of exchanges, it's understandable for the sake of traffic, and even Binance might eventually yield to this huge wave of traffic. Anyway, the launch on exchanges is a done deal, and discussing it further is pointless. For us, we can see if there are arbitrage opportunities, because in my view, most of those holding PI do not understand trading, which provides potential opportunities for arbitrage.

As for this wave of traffic, it is uncertain whether it is a blessing or a curse for the crypto world, because unlike Trump and Libra, these coins have major holders with large stakes, and coming into the crypto space is purely for profit, which will drain liquidity from the crypto market. However, the PI coin will bring a large number of older individuals to the exchanges, and whether their pensions will be affected by PI is another matter. Anyway, it is not easy for PI to take from the crypto community. Even if it seeks to absorb funds, most of it would come from the pensions of older individuals, which does not concern us. But conversely, once a large number of older individuals enter the exchanges, it may bring some funds into the crypto space, as they might buy platform tokens or altcoins, which could also be a major consideration for exchanges launching PI.

In terms of market conditions, it has recently been fluctuating slightly around this position, with Bitcoin around 95,000 and Ethereum mainly in the 2,600-2,700 range, while other altcoins haven't experienced significant fluctuations. From historical data, if this is a bottoming out fluctuation, this duration is not long enough; normally it would continue to fluctuate for a while longer, from a few weeks to 1-2 months. Therefore, if you want to build a position, you should do so without pressure; normally, the market won’t turn sharply upwards.

On the other hand, if you are determined to buy at the bottom, you should buy now. You can buy less and buy slowly, but you must buy. Even if the upcoming fluctuations may present lower prices, why? This actually involves the issue of execution in a bear market. If you do not actively buy at this price, you will be even less inclined to act if it drops further. When you continuously validate your judgment as correct, you will remain obsessed in a bear market until the bull market starts, and then you will want to build a position again. Therefore, I have always advocated that one should be more active in a bear market and maintain a calm mindset in a bull market.

Thank you.

February 18, 2025

Today, V God tweeted that he felt uncomfortable when the crypto community and venture capital companies believed that "PvP-style gaming projects that make 99% of users lose money" were the best product form in the crypto field, and the pursuit of better products was accused of "condescending and elitism". I think V God's words expressed what most coin friends were thinking. Why are those who play PvP called "P Juniors"? It is because those who play these are basically newcomers who don't understand the rules of the currency circle. It is true that a few people will make money in the early stage, but in the end, it will be a mess. It is not an exaggeration that 99% of people lose money.

The recent price trend of SOL seems to be gradually confirming this prediction. The highest point is close to 300 US dollars, and it is currently less than 200 US dollars. The maximum decline has exceeded Ethereum. When the market only sees the increase, it means that the risk is ignored. In fact, every round of hot spots will be a mess. This is because the de-bubble is objectively unavoidable, but the key is that when the tide recedes, what is left for this market?

The Internet bubble in the past made countless stockholders lose their fortunes and companies go bankrupt, but it gave birth to the subsequent technology giants, and Internet technology also changed the world. DeFi Summer eventually trapped many coin friends and even forced them out of the market, but it left the currency circle with paradigm applications such as Dex and on-chain lending, which other chains are still imitating today. So, when a new hot spot appears, it is worth asking, when the bubble bursts, what can it bring to the currency circle? If it is a bunch of meaningless codes, no new funds will be willing to pull the market.

In fact, the decline of sol is not surprising, including the meme on sol. This position has not really punctured the bubble, and there is still room to go down. I am more worried that once the pvp hot spot cools down, the overall market value of the currency circle may be hit again. Of course, the current state of the currency circle is already very cold. In fact, this wave of small declines can be seen that the cottage has not followed the decline. I myself have placed some cottage orders at this position. If the price falls and the transaction is traded downward, I will hold it as a bargain hunting position.

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February 17, 2025

The Argentine President Milley’s coin issuance incident is probably similar to what I guessed. He or his assistant received millions of bribes, and then asked the president to tweet and then delete it. It is worth mentioning that many project founders in the circle participated and were cut, but the behind-the-scenes promoter of this incident returned the money lost by these bigwigs, which can be said to be "the money of the gentry is returned in full; the money of the people is received in full". Although everyone is clamoring to defend their rights and sue, this matter should be left unresolved. Those who are capable may get their money back if they lose money, and those who are not capable can only swallow their anger.

There are many good opportunities in the coin circle, but there are also many pitfalls, and once a new opportunity to make money appears, such as the hot spot of Trump’s coin issuance, a lot of people will immediately want to follow suit. Before President Milley, there were other celebrities who wanted to follow suit and make a wave of money. For coin friends, we are all vulnerable groups, and investment is a matter of willingness to fight and suffer. We cannot think about defending our rights when we lose money, but we should be fundamentally responsible for our investment. It is better not to do such obvious money-making coin issuance.

In this way, the recent bad market in the coin circle cannot be blamed entirely on the market itself. So many monsters and demons have come to issue coins, which not only sucked away funds, but also ruined the mentality. Moreover, the coin circle itself is still in the internal development stage, and most of them are conceptual projects with no commercial value. However, this does not mean that there are no valuable projects in the coin circle, nor does it mean that the coin circle will be ruined. The hematopoietic ability of the coin circle is still very strong, and with Bitcoin as the mainstay, it is only a matter of time before the market goes crazy again.

Recently, my own position has been fluctuating between 60% and 80%, mainly for some swings. At present, I still maintain the judgment that the market will start again in the second quarter, but the specific time may be a little later, that is, there is still a 2-3 month period of volatility. As for whether there is a chance of another sharp drop during this period, I can only say that the probability is not high, but we still have to be on guard, mainly because Bitcoin has basically not had a deep correction, so I left some positions and will fill them up if the market breaks 90,000 again.

Thank you for your attention and likes.

February 16, 2025

Yesterday, the Argentine president was criticized by everyone for launching Libra, but no matter how much he criticized, it is said that he made more than 100 million US dollars, and according to subsequent excavations, the person who made the money was not the Argentine president, but a Chinese team operating on his behalf. If it is true, the Chinese saw the huge opportunity brought by Trump's coin issuance, and then climbed up to the Argentine president through relationships, and then used his reputation to issue coins. I guess they had an agreement with him, sent a tweet, paid millions of US dollars in advertising fees, and then deleted it.

Now the currency circle is really ruined. After Trump's coin issuance revealed the fig leaf of the currency circle, various dog dealers are becoming unscrupulous. Not only are there no moral constraints, but it seems that legal supervision has suddenly disappeared. In the past, at least the entire white paper, or some fake official websites and accounts were operated for a few months. Now it's good to just issue a CA. The name of the coin is very simple, either a person's name or a dog's name. These coins not only sucked away the liquidity of the currency circle, but also destroyed the trust that was hard to establish. We should all resist.

Pay attention to the value trend. The Ethereum Foundation recently took 45,000 ETH to participate in the DeFi protocol. These ETHs are deployed to AAVE, Compound and Spark (MakerDAO). There is no doubt that these are the basic protocols of the current DeFi project and the pillar protocols. Their tokens are the mainstream coins I recognize and can be used as value investments. Including the recent UNI, it seems that it will also launch a chain. These protocols with good TVL and daily transactions will definitely regain the right to speak in the currency circle in the future.

The price of the market has been relatively stable in the past few days, but the cottage is still falling slightly. According to the plan, I took back the AI ​​sector cottage that I had sold at a high price before. I have also said the logic. The price is reasonable and the speculation expectation is still there. In addition, I think that while the market is sluggish, I can continue to build positions for long-term value investment projects. I still choose ETH and DeFi projects. DeFi is mainly based on the Ethereum chain, and other chain projects will consider BSC slightly.

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