黑猫SabTheTrader

The essence of trading is simply to wait for the flowers to bloom. After watching the order book and the candlestick chart long enough, everyone knows where prices will rise and where they will fall. What’s difficult is that most people only want the flowers to open immediately—right away—and enter the market right away. They don’t have the patience to wait for the season when the flowers bloom. Their money either comes with a high price tag or ongoing costs, or else it’s tied up just enough to pay rent and eat. So they can’t wait for the bloom season; they end up becoming fertilizer for the flowers early on—turning into liquidity itself in the market and losing all their chips.

We are looking forward to it, again and again, for this big thing to happen.$BNB

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🇨🇳 Oct 2｜Crypto Market Brief
$BNB
📈 BTC reclaims $86K, the second day of Q4 continues to rebound

BTC is currently around $86.3K, briefly nearing $86.9K during the day; ETH is around $2.76K, SOL around $122.

Overall, the market has warmed up. Since the beginning of October, BTC has risen by about 3%. However, Treasury yields are still high, the dollar is strengthening, and macro pressure has not disappeared.

🔥 ETF inflows return as the core support

In September, the US spot BTC ETF recorded net inflows of about $2.65B, the second-strongest monthly performance since October 2025; ETH spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $832M in the same period.

On Oct 1, BTC ETFs again logged around $102.7M in net inflows, with the funds mainly flowing to BlackRock’s IBIT.

🏦 SEC: New framework for institutional crypto custody

The market is continuing to digest the SEC’s Crypto Custody proposal released yesterday.

Under the new scheme, qualified investment advisers and regulated funds may, under certain circumstances, self-custody crypto assets, and state-level trust companies may also be used as custodians.

However, note that this is still a Proposal—not the final rules. After the formal release, there will be a 60-day public comment period.

💰 Citi raises its BTC target to $113K

Citi raised its 12-month BTC target from $82K to $113K, and its ETH target from $2,240 to $3,028.

The report attributes the forecast adjustments mainly to ETF capital returning, higher activity in the crypto market, and an improving macro environment.

This is an institutional view, not a price guarantee.

⚡ The real test today: US Non-Farm Payrolls

US September NFP employment data will be released today.

The market previously expected an increase of about 90K jobs, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.1%. The employment report will directly affect how the market assesses the Fed’s interest-rate path for October.

Meanwhile, Core Lightning reminds users running older versions of nodes to upgrade as soon as possible—unupdated nodes are increasingly becoming targets of attacks.

📊 Market Snapshot

BTC ≈ $86.3K
ETH ≈ $2.76K
SOL ≈ $122
XRP ≈ $1.53
BTC Dominance ≈ 57%
Fear & Greed ≈ 72
Market Cap ≈ $2.99T

🎯 On Day 2 of Q4, the market’s logic is changing:

ETF inflows are back in, the institutional regulatory framework continues to move forward, BTC has reclaimed $86K,

But what will truly determine today’s行情 is still US employment data.

If Non-Farm Payrolls give the market more room for rate cuts, $87K will become the key level again.

Today, don’t listen to the story.

Look at the data.

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The essence of trading is simply waiting for the flowers to bloom. When you’ve watched the order book and the candlestick charts long enough, you know where things will rise and where they’ll fall—everyone has that figured out. What’s hard is that most people just want the flowers to open immediately, to enter the market immediately, without the patience to wait for the season when they bloom. Their money either comes with a high price tag or ongoing costs, or it’s just waiting to pay rent and buy meals. So they can’t wait for the blooming season; they end up becoming fertilizer for the flowers too soon—turning into liquidity in the market itself and losing all their chips.

When Non-Farm Payrolls hits, does the big BTC really flip the market? The data may not be that obedient.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls are released once a month—12 times a year—usually on the first Friday of the month. Many people treat it like a “market switch” for Bitcoin, but history isn’t that straightforward.

CoinDesk analyzed about 79 Non-Farm release days since 2020: the intraday average volatility on BTC days is about 2.1%, roughly the same as a typical trading day; the number of up and down days is almost evenly split—39 up and 40 down. The direction is close to a coin toss.

What actually tends to amplify volatility is how surprising the data is relative to expectations—not the numbers themselves:

· Much stronger than expected: the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields rise, rate-cut expectations cool, and price action leans downward in the short term
· Roughly in line with expectations: after a quick spike, it often returns to the original trend
· Much weaker than expected: tighter-policy expectations ease, price action leans upward in the short term; if it’s weak enough to trigger recession fears, it may even rise first and then fall

The short-term window is more sensitive. In the first 30 minutes after release, the median price move is about 2x the usual. Extreme moves have happened too: during the 2022 bear market, one Non-Farm day saw BTC rise about 11.4%, and the next one fell about 7.8%.

Non-Farm is more like a trigger, not a direction playbook. The size depends on the magnitude of the surprise, the rate expectations at the time, and how crowded the contract leverage is. Volatility is typically highest within minutes to half an hour after the release, and then reverse spikes often follow.

The above is for data compilation only and does not constitute investment advice.

#比特币 #NonFarm #BTC #比特币升至8.5万美元附近

Stay composed
$BNB 🧧
Only then can you embrace the boundless beauty of the world

🧧 No need to dwell on the past, and don’t overthink the future. Live each moment in the present with care, allow everything to unfold, and stay at peace within—inner steadiness is the greatest confidence.$BNB

$龙虾 The lobster is too powerful. When it dipped yesterday, I got on board. The spot is already up nearly 3x!

🚨 Stop slandering ETH as weak! Up 70.9% straight in Q3!
Shutting down all the bearish “altcoin” doubters—before the surge in Q4, is there still a chance to get in? (Recommended to share and save)

🎁【Bonus time】：As usual, this post is already pinned with a password reward! Like + follow to claim directly!

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🔹 Data speaks: the real big sell-off reversal already happened:

Just wrapped up Q3, and Ethereum quietly surged 70.9%!
It directly outperformed BTC’s同期 (same period) gain of 43.6%！

Those who used to shout “Ethereum can’t move”—all got slapped in the face!

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🔹 Why will the rebound in Q4 be even fiercer?

1️⃣ Rapid capital rotation: BTC consolidates at high levels, while major institutions are racing ahead to capture the liquidity increase from spot ETH ETFs!
2️⃣ On-chain deflation engine restarted: Layer 2 transaction volume explodes—staking and locking (TVL) both hit new highs!
3️⃣ Q4 seasonal tailwind: Based on historical 10-year data, Q4 is often when mainstream coins show the strongest breakout power!

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📌 Practical strategy & support levels (save screenshots recommended):

• Short-term: Range-trade and shake out near resistance; watch the strong support zone at 2,850 - 2,920 (buy in batches on pullbacks).
• Medium/long-term: When the exchange rate finds its bottom, build positions in batches; the target is to go straight for the previous high breakout!

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💥 Don’t forget to 【Like + Follow】 after claiming the红包—I'll help you cut through market fog and only do the most hardcore, real trading!

#ETH #Ethereum #以太坊 #Crypto #币安Square $ETH $BTC

🎁🎁🎁
$PEPE

#以太坊三季度涨70.9%
$PEPE When will it reach the previous high of 0.028?