📍Let me first say the conclusion: the sector's financial attention is constantly diluted, financial consensus is disordered, and it is difficult to capture high-quality price chips under market sentiment.
According to public information from data websites, the current market value of ETH L2 is more than 20 billion, and this growth trend is expected to remain stable with future upgrades and adjustments to Ethereum.
But this growth may not necessarily bring enough Alpha returns🔻
Recently, $STRK has entered the secondary market. From the perspective of market consensus, the views on it are quite divided. From the current #Binance market, the trend is not in line with emotional expectations.
Although I believe that its long-term development will have high growth potential, judging from the transition trend from the primary market to the secondary market, there will be enough star L2 logins in the future. On the whole, although the total market value will further increase, the capital consensus within the sector will also be divided.
(This is not an adjustment to the previous view, and we remain optimistic about STRK's leadership in this cycle)
The phenomenon of "more meat, more wolves" is very vivid to describe the L2 track. Currently, the 8 more well-known L2s occupy 98% of the entire track, and the rest is divided among some small L2 coins.
One super and many strong teams is not enough to describe this track🔻
The gradual launch of star L2s in the future will not only divert existing projects to a certain extent, but will also further squeeze the living space of those L2s that have not been paid attention to by the market.
From the user's perspective, if I want to invest in an L2 project in the future, how should I choose so that I can outperform Beta returns?
At present, we can only put question marks, and this is the problem👇
Under normal logic, choosing a small market value does have the potential for high growth, but as I said above, the previous few L2s are all terrifyingly strong. What can the current small coins in the sector use to fight? And after beating one, there is another...
As for betting on the several stocks with larger market capitalizations, the gap between them is not particularly large, and their market shares are almost the same. They can be caught up in one wave of market trends. How do you choose?
Even looking at the growth trend of TVL (more than tripled in one year), it is still difficult for us to choose now~
📍Last year, you wouldn’t have made any mistakes by choosing the leading stocks ARB and OP without any hesitation. At that time, there were many better choices for the second-tier stocks in the market~
As of now, from my personal perspective: because I myself hold $OP , and it is even one of the main positions, plus the price is relatively good, so this part will not be moved. As for other small positions, some scattered second-layer coins obtained from here and there, I will find an opportunity to clear them out and collect the funds.
Many friends have asked me to look at various second-tier stocks before. The fundamentals of the recommendations are all okay, but a good target does not necessarily mean suitable for buying. Judging from the launch of STRK this time, second-tier narratives are coming one after another, and it is difficult for us to pick up many high-quality and priced chips in the secondary market as before, even though it has just been launched!
Odds, this is the first principle of betting on the target. It is too difficult to choose L2 in small market value. The Alpha income of star L2 is also constantly decreasing with the launch of new stars and the decrease of overall expectations🔺
Just like the DEX track, due to the homogeneity of business models and the competitive environment of the sector, it is difficult for us to really say which DEX is really worth holding for the long term.
The current L2 and the L2 sector in the future are in this situation🔺
