As the market stands today, the notion of 69,000 uncleared short orders seems far-fetched and improbable to many. It begs the question: could such a scenario persist for two years? It's a skepticism shared by many short sellers, and rightfully so.
Presently, it appears that short sellers are in a dire state, as illustrated in Figure 2. With no apparent adversaries left, the pathway for further price appreciation hinges on attracting external capital. The effectiveness of ETF buying becomes pivotal in this context. Essentially, when bulls exhaust their resources from the $15,000 mark and start selling, it signals a precarious juncture before a potential price downturn.
Figure 1 indicates that bulls have only realized about half of their profit potential, suggesting that significant market shocks may be necessary before substantial selling can occur. As retail investors, our role often boils down to capitalizing on market maker-induced rallies without overanalyzing the situation.
Regarding price projections, surpassing $60,000 appears to be the most probable outcome. However, it's essential not to dwell excessively on potential black swan events. These unforeseen occurrences often defy conventional expectations, much like a swan learning to fish and enforce laws.
Turning to the U.S. national debt, which is nearing its zenith, discussions surrounding repayment strategies may seem futile. However, with the U.S.'s formidable military power, the ability to borrow anew to settle old debts remains a viable option.
Inflation is another factor worth considering. It's imperative to understand that inflation must be counterbalanced by tangible commodities before it dissipates. Merely relying on financial maneuvers is insufficient to combat inflation's effects.
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