Macroeconomics and news:
Two important time points tonight are the Fed's Bowman speech at 2 a.m., the Fed's monetary policy minutes at 3 a.m., and Nvidia's earnings report at 5 a.m.
At present, US stocks may face greater pressure tonight. U.S. stock indexes fell in pre-market trading.
I said last week that the rise in U.S. stocks, especially driven by technology stocks, with the S&P 500 breaking a record high, has created a huge financial bubble in the market and put the market in a high-risk state. Since last week, we can see that Meishen has been suppressing the rise of the stock market through official comments and government policies.
Last Thursday, I don’t know if OpenAI deliberately released new AI software, which once again greatly stimulated the AI sector, causing US stocks to close with good gains last week. The United States wants to suppress the excessive rise of the stock market and hopes that the stock market will remain at a high level and calm. However, when it releases major positive news at this time, the consequences will come.
Currently, Sora has been criticized by foreign media and the situation has been cooled down. Various video bloggers who boasted about it in the past few days have their faces smashed. In the past few days, some people have begun to follow the trend and badmouth other people’s AI. In fact, the new software released by OpenAI is indeed a technological advancement, but the release time seems to be wrong, because the United States currently needs the market to cool down, not heat up. Therefore, it has been suppressed by public opinion and cooled down, but these video bloggers who follow the trend are more funny. Suppression by public opinion does not hinder technological progress. Many bloggers simply see AI itself, but do not consider the reasons and functions of its appearance.
I said before that the massive promotion and hype of AI is inseparable from the financial market. Many people didn’t believe it before. What now? To cool down the U.S. stock market is to suppress AI for a period of time.
Therefore, the stock price of NVIDIA has also suffered. NVIDIA has been considered one of the most important stocks by American capital. NVIDIA's stock price will also determine the trend of the entire U.S. stock market. The positive sentiment towards AI also allows the AI technology company NVIDIA to show better performance. Performance, but again, the United States does not want U.S. stocks to rise now.
So starting yesterday, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal began to publish articles against Nvidia, and even went short. Nvidia's stock price was sold off heavily yesterday, with the euphemistic name of locking in profits in advance, and a one-sided lack of optimism about Nvidia's short-term financial results.The media continued to promote this view today, causing US stocks to fall before the market opened and US stock indexes to fall.
Now everyone is no longer concerned about whether Nvidia's financial report will cause the stock price to rise, but whether Nvidia's financial report will stop the downward trend. Nvidia's financial report is released at 5 a.m. Even if the financial report results are good, because of several days of short selling, the market has cooled down, and Nvidia's rebound will not put too much pressure on the US stock market.
Secondly, tonight's Federal Reserve monetary minutes are expected to be more hawkish. Whether it is to suppress risk markets and US stocks, or to pave the way for not cutting interest rates in the short term, they are expected to be more hawkish. However, the important point is that if the meeting reveals the possibility of raising interest rates instead of cutting interest rates in the short term, it may have a greater impact on the market. The current probability of raising interest rates is 15%. If this value is raised to more than 50%, the risk market will be suppressed again. On the other hand, if the issue of interest rate hikes is not mentioned, then the suppression will be relatively mild.
Personal expectations may lead market opinion to increase the possibility of raising interest rates, suppress the market, and finally decide not to raise interest rates. This has been the rhythm of recent months.
Let’s talk about the U.S. election again. I said before that the U.S. is heading into recession. Many Americans thought I was innocent. Let’s speak with facts.
Trump's votes are currently 7% higher than Biden's in the United States. If Trump is not disqualified from the general election, it is basically confirmed that Trump will take office.
Why is the Republican Party represented by Trump so vocal?
First of all, Biden and the Democratic Party he represents have implemented mindless expansion policies after taking office. Whether it is the New Washington Treaty after Google Bank in 2023, or raising the government debt ceiling, they are also fighting on multiple fronts, creating more enemies. , Biden’s policy is to maintain his own internal consumption through continuous expansion. But unfortunately, the United States is no longer the United States 20 years ago. This kind of policy is effective under absolute strength, but when there are countries in the world that can compete with you, it will be very troublesome, and you may even kill one thousand enemies and lose eight hundred. , and the current situation in the United States cannot afford the loss. At this point, there must be people saying that I am a slanderer against the United States. Well, I am not slanderous. Look at the votes of Americans. Why did they choose Trump instead of Biden?
What are the policies of Trump and the Republican Party he leads?
Tighten national policies, sell off or dispose of the long-term assets of the national government, tighten trade policies, repay debts, lower the debt ceiling, reduce economic pressure, and at the same time strengthen the recovery of the production industry internally to open up the internal cycle of the US domestic economy. To put it bluntly, it is obscene development. According to the strong foundation of the United States, if it really develops in three to five years, it will probably return to its peak period. So the American people themselves are not stupid, they chose Trump.
You see, this is not my fault for the current United States. American voters have also given the answer. There is a problem with the current American economy. If it continues to maintain the current rhythm of unlimited expansion, the United States cannot afford to lose at all. Once a certain aspect appears, Even a small problem will be magnified infinitely.
so what? As I said now, the U.S. stock market bubble is high, the U.S. debt is high, and there are tens of billions or hundreds of billions of external expenditures. These are all problems. If you fail somewhere, the problem will be infinitely magnified.
So, don’t say that I’m slandering the United States or saying that I’m not talking about America. I’m just stating the facts. It also reminds everyone of potential risks. Many people may not care about these issues, so if there is a problem with the U.S. economy and a circuit breaker occurs in the U.S. stock market in the short term, do you think the encryption market will be affected? The financial market relies on the economy, and the economy must consider the overall economic policy and national policy to judge. If there is a problem, there is a problem.
Later comes the market summary.
