Emotions dominate the market, and Bitcoin rebounds slightly to break the previous high. Is the ETF hype just a "reheat of old food"? How long can the market's positive attitude and tolerance last? Where will it go after 37,000 stabilizes?

As of the time of posting, the price of Bitcoin is around 37,400. The price rebounded again last night and broke through 37,000, and broke through the previous high again to around 37,800. Then it quickly fell back and fluctuated sideways. This week's market started in the early morning, and the Bitcoin market was relatively stable during the day.

Technical aspects:

In the 1-hour Bollinger Band oscillation and closing stage, at the current stage, without increasing volume, there is a small support at 37,300, which is also the Bollinger Band midline support. If this small-level position supports until the 1-hour closing, the probability of an upward rebound will be greater.

The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are relatively stable at the moment, and if the bag is not closed, there will not be too extreme market conditions in the short term if news factors are excluded. The current price is running on the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. According to the range of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, if there is no break, the amplitude of 1900 points is not much.

According to the daily Bollinger Bands, the current pocket amplitude has tightened to 3900 points. Yesterday, the price rebounded to the MA30 line. The current price is running on the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. The current daily Bollinger Band midline is around 36,600, and the MA7-day support is at 37,000. If it does not fall below 37,000, then the pressure point above the daily line will have a greater probability of breaking through. The upper daily Bollinger Band pressure level is around 38,300. In terms of the Fibonacci retracement level, the upper short-term resistance is around 38,500. If this position is broken through, then the daily level break will change the trend in the short term.

In fact, from a technical point of view, although there is a relatively obvious rebound at present, the rebound range is still within the range of shock. Although the rebound last night has broken the previous high in a short period of time, and has also gotten rid of the rhythm of the step-by-step correction that I have been talking about in the past few days, I think we cannot blindly look at the bull market before trying to break through the upper pressure at the daily level.

Let's take a look at what the dynamic changes in the crypto market have shown. The 24-hour dynamic changes in the crypto market and the changes in funds:

The market value of the crypto market has been increasing over the past 24 hours. Although Bitcoin experienced a significant rebound in the early morning, its market share has not increased significantly. On the contrary, the market share of Ethereum and other altcoins has increased, and the market value of stablecoins has also decreased. Judging from the market share, the tendency of market funds is the altcoin market led by Ethereum. The decrease in the market share of stablecoins indicates that the wait-and-see funds have entered the market. The rebound of Bitcoin last night gave the market some confidence. However, judging from the situation of individual altcoins, the increase in market sentiment has obviously not given these tokens the funds and ability to break through their own pressure.

As for the flow of stablecoins, Asian funds entered the market again today, and more than 150 million funds entered the market again, bringing fresh blood to the market. After the US funds left the market in the early hours of last night, some funds returned before the US stock market closed. Although the return of tens of millions of US dollars cannot bring more momentum to the market, it is enough to show the confidence of the US market in the short term.

However, the same old problem remains: US funds are fence-sitters who follow the wind. When there is a slight market disturbance, they move first, which leads to greater market volatility.

However, overall, the inflow of funds represents a good trend in market sentiment. However, the amount of funds entering the market is not large at present. Although it is an incremental amount, there is also a lot of funds on the sidelines.

Both the technical and financial aspects indicate a positive market trend, but let’s look at the news and macroeconomics that support the market’s enthusiasm.

Macroeconomics and news

In terms of macroeconomics, the main rhythm of the current macroeconomics is that there will be no interest rate hike in December, and everyone is discussing when to cut interest rates next year. However, at present, the US stock market is more sensitive to the macroeconomics, while the crypto market automatically ignores it, because there are not many hype points for the macroeconomics. The next round of hype will depend on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy minutes in December, because the Federal Reserve's monetary minutes in December may finally make the interest rate hike complete, and then the changes in the dot plot will allow many people to interpret the Fed's economic trends next year.

For the current crypto market, if you carefully savor the recent events, from the ETF hype in mid-October to now, fake news and false news have frequently appeared. We think that the market will really rise if the news is irrelevant. It is just like the market sentiment is in place now, and you can give any reason to rise. A high enough FOMO sentiment also makes the market more terrifying.

Just like the rebound in the early hours of last night, was there any big news? No, there was only a speech by an SEC official, saying that the SEC would not block the ETF application. Does this sentence have any substantive meaning? No. But what? The market still ushered in a wave of rebound that broke through the previous high.

It will not stop the pace of ETF applications, but it will not affect the SEC's various regulatory requirements. At the same time, we don't know whether these regulatory requirements will delay the approval of ETFs. At the same time, the SEC does not restrict ETF applications. If you apply, as long as it meets the current rules, I will accept it. I have the final say on when it will be approved. So the SEC official's words are nonsense and empty talk. But the market sentiment has been mobilized. Is this a good thing? Many people think it is a good thing, but I don't think so.

Everyone has heard the story of the boy who cried wolf. When the news about ETFs has been hyped up from big to small, from true to false, the market has not ushered in the bull market that many retail investors have hoped for, so the next ETF hype may not be satisfactory. At the same time, it even makes many people feel disgusted with the hype of ETFs. At the same time, the hype of ETFs now makes me feel that it is really a bit of a rehash, and it makes me feel that capital has no hot spots to hype, and it is hard hype. Why do we have to hype hard? To put it bluntly, it is still because of the lack of confidence in the current market, and we want to use market sentiment to mobilize more funds. What is the purpose of doing this? I haven't thought of it yet. It is probably not that simple. Don't always think about raising the price to sell, it's too simple and child's play.

Summarize:

In fact, from the overall situation of the current market, technology, capital dynamics, and market sentiment seem to give bullish signals, but I still remain cautious about the current market. Although yesterday's rebound broke through the previous high and temporarily broke the rhythm of the step-shaped shock decline I wrote before, I still remain cautious about the market turning bullish. At least at this stage, the pressure level of the daily Bollinger Band is there. If it breaks through 38,500 and stands firm, then our callback logic will be overturned. If it cannot effectively stand firm at this position, I will still look at the possibility of a callback.

Return to Trading:

In terms of contracts, many people may chase more, but I personally do not recommend it. Of course, it doesn't matter if you can always watch the market and set a stop loss. If you cannot determine the long position in the short term, you can try to go short above 38,500, set a defensive stop loss, open a small position, set a stop loss, and wait for a wave of needles. Or it is best to wait and see at this position for a short time. It is recommended that longs stand firm at 38,500 first, and shorts should not blindly chase shorts directly. After all, the current volatility is still in the shock stage.

In terms of spot, the SNX 3.6 position I built yesterday is currently trapped, and I am waiting for the stop loss. There will be token unlocking in the next few days. Although the unlocking is not large, you can still wait for a rebound.

BLUR did not receive the train yesterday, and today it broke through the new high and hit the 0.52 callback. It can be seen that the pressure at the 0.52 position is still relatively large, and the shipment volume is not small. Since it did not receive the train, it is still testing the pressure point, so I may choose to give up this token for the time being.

Today I have arranged for STRAX. This token will be split and renamed. The specific information will be announced on Twitter on Friday. I have already entered the market and am waiting. If it goes according to the original plan, the name change and split should be carried out in December, which is a good thing for this token.

I have been lying in ambush on GMT for a while. The new game will be launched soon. I heard that the reviews are good. I am currently building a small position and waiting for the callback to cover the position.

If you want to know more about token layout, you can join Jiu Ye’s free communication base of thousands of people. Search the official account --- Captain Xingchen for the entrance. Welcome to join.

Finally, thank you for following Wall Street Jiuye and thank you all for your support along the way.