Has alt-season already happened? The answer is a bit surprising.
Let's look at the actual data fom tradingview.
1. First, we have the Other market cap, which is the market cap of all altcoins outside the Top 10. It has tripled over the last 8 months since June 2023 from $76B to $230B.
2. Secondly, we have the Other dominance, which has increased by 50% from 7.8% to now 12.2% over the last 8 months since June 2023 as well
3. Bitcoin dominance has steadily increased from 40% to now 54% over the last 14 months since December 2022.
These 3 charts show that it's possible for altcoins to double again in market cap while Bitcoin stays stable and its Dominance drops into the low 40%.
However, this is the best-case scenario. There is no guarantee or law that this happens. What's more,
Conclusion
You are not owed a real alt-season with a large drop in Bitcoin dominance. Bitcoin has deservedly had such a big hype due to its ETF-approval, so a large increase in dominance makes sense.
I can imagine Ethereum taking over in March and April ahead of the Ethereum ETF approval deadlines in May, which would lead to a drop in Bitcoin dominance and a massive alt-season into the low 40%.
This would then also mark the definitive end of alt-season, a Bitcoin correction over summer, a local top and subsequent 70%-99% drops across most altcoins outside the Top 10 until November 2024 and give us the next entry for the second and last phase of this bull run throughout 2025.