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It is timely to revisit the typical crypto market cycle, as Bitcoin continues to respect it with remarkable precision.

The macro top was confirmed in October, when $BTC tested the $126,000 zone, marking the current cycle ATH. Since that rejection, price has transitioned into a prolonged consolidation phase, which structurally aligns with the early stages of a broader bear market cycle.

From a wave structure perspective, price action is developing an extended corrective formation (ABC). The initial decline from $126K to the $59K region completes Wave A. Current market behavior suggests a potential Wave B recovery toward the key supply and resistance band around $84,800–$90,000, where sellers are expected to reassert control.

Failure to reclaim and hold above this supply zone would likely trigger Wave C, with downside continuation toward the $34,000–$30,000 projected target area. This zone aligns with historical demand, prior cycle accumulation, and long-term value based interest making it a critical region for strategic accumulation, not panic.

Cycle analysis indicates that this corrective phase may extend into early 2027, setting the stage for the next major accumulation and recovery phase. While short- to mid-term volatility and downside risk remain valid, the broader macro structure continues to support higher prices long term, with expansion potential toward $200,000+ once the cycle reset completes.

#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

#bitcoin can drop below 40k later this year! But before that, in the short term, we may see a final drop to 58k, followed by a huge bear market rally to 85k. If you are confused, let's take a look at my prediction:

Short-term: 58k (wave A on the chart)
Mid-term: 85k (wave B on the chart)
Long-term: 40k (wave C on the chart)

From an investment point of view, after we hit 40k, that would be a great buying opportunity because Bitcoin will probably go to 200k in the next years!

Why can $BTC go to 58k in the immediate short term? There are 2 very important levels that are waiting to be hit. The first is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous bear market on the non-LOG scale, and the second is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA). Bitcoin bounced off 60k, but we didn't hit these levels, so that means we probably are going to go down very soon. When Bitcoin hits 58, that would complete the wave (A) of the bear market.

After that we may see a big rise to 85k (wave B), when everyone will think that the bottom is in, and these people may invest all their money into the crypto market. But do not get caught! We want to wait for wave (C). Your entry point is at 40k or lower!

What about all the ETF investors? Let's take a look at the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF chart. To me it looks like a huge trap for all investors that invested in Bitcoin in 2024 and 2025. The banks and huge institutions will probably take all stop losses and liquidity below the current all-time low. Does it make sense to you?

Why do whales need your stop losses? They have an enormous amount of money, and they need your order to get "filled" into the crypto market. They cannot buy Bitcoin from no one. They need your orders to enter the crypto space. That's why they cannot send $BTC to the upside, and instead they need to manipulate the price and crash Bitcoin again and again. In other words, they will make much more money by sending the price of Bitcoin down!
#BTC #TrendingTopic

Bitcoin can drop below 40k later this year! But before that, in the short term, we may see a final drop to 58k, followed by a huge bear market rally to 85k. If you are confused, let's take a look at my prediction:

Short-term: 58k (wave A on the chart)
Mid-term: 85k (wave B on the chart)
Long-term: 40k (wave C on the chart)

From an investment point of view, after we hit 40k, that would be a great buying opportunity because Bitcoin will probably go to 200k in the next years!

Why can Bitcoin go to 58k in the immediate short term? 2 very important levels are waiting to be hit. The first is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous bear market on the non-LOG scale, and the second is the 200-week simple moving average (SMA). Bitcoin bounced off 60k, but we didn't hit these levels, so that means we probably are going to go down very soon. When Bitcoin hits 58, that would complete the wave (A) of the bear market.

After that we may see a big rise to 85k (wave B), when everyone will think that the bottom is in, and these people may invest all their money into the crypto market. But do not get caught! We want to wait for wave (C). Your entry point is at 40k or lower!

What about all the ETF investors? Let's take a look at the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF chart. To me it looks like a huge trap for all investors that invested in Bitcoin in 2024 and 2025. The banks and huge institutions will probably take all stop losses and liquidity below the current all-time low. Does it make sense to you?

Why do whales need your stop losses? They have an enormous amount of money, and they need your order to get "filled" into the crypto market. They cannot buy Bitcoin from no one. They need your orders to enter the crypto space. That's why they cannot send Bitcoin to the upside, and instead they need to manipulate the price and crash Bitcoin again and again. In other words, they will make much more money by sending the price of Bitcoin down!

Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! I am very transparent with my trades. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
#MarketRebound #BTCFellBelow$69,000Again #BTC #TrendingTopic

Tokenized US Treasuries are close to $11 billion, but the chain war is shifting from issuance to distribution and utility. Where yield tokens actually sit, how often they move, and whether they plug into stablecoin settlement and collateral workflows are what matters.
Last week, XRP Ledger (XRPL) got two signals that it's trying to matter in that “venue” fight.
First, Aviva Investors said it's partnering with Ripple to tokenize traditional fund structures on the XRP Ledger, framing tokenization as moving from experiments to “large-scale production” over the next decade.
Second, OpenEden's TBILL token supply is skewed toward XRPL: more of the supply resides there than on Ethereum.
Yet the early activity data raises a harder question: is XRPL becoming a real RWA venue, or just another issuance endpoint while trading and collateral gravity remain on Ethereum and layer 2s?
Tokenized T-bills here mean tokenized fund shares or vault tokens backed by short-dated US Treasuries, held and transferred on-chain.
Stablecoins matter because they're the cash leg for subscriptions and redemptions and the settlement rail that makes “24/7 treasury liquidity” plausible.
This story tests three credibility checks to decide whether XRPL is seeing a real venue shift or a narrative spike: issuance, distribution and usage, and financial utility.
Three credibility tests
Credibility concerns whether regulated issuers and asset managers are actually choosing XRPL over crypto-native firms.
Distribution and usage ponder whether meaningful balances and transfers live on XRPL, instead of just “launched on XRPL” headlines.
Financial utility assesses whether these assets are used for settlement and collateral flows or are mostly parked.
Collateral is where “venue” becomes durable.
Aviva and OpenEden
Aviva Investors and Ripple announced a partnership to tokenize traditional fund structures on XRPL.
The companies explicitly position it as multi-year work “over 2026 and beyond.” Aviva describes “tokenized funds” and “traditional fund structures,” not “T-bills only.” This matters because it's an institutional distribution narrative as much as a specific product narrative.
What success would look like: a named tokenized fund product goes live with prospectus, terms, and eligible investors. Additionally, a growing holder base on XRPL beyond single-digit wallets, and repeated transfer volume consistent with settlement, not just mint-and-sit.
Right now, Aviva's commitment is a partnership intention and a multi-year build, not a launched fund on XRPL today.
OpenEden's TBILL vault token is explicitly a T-bill-backed vault token, consisting of short-dated US Treasuries with 1:1 backing, tracked on RWA.xyz.
TBILL's circulating supply is 54.41 million on XRPL, 32.02 million on Ethereum, and smaller amounts on Solana and Arbitrum. That's roughly 62.6% of TBILL supply sitting on XRPL.
However, usage is the tell. In the same dataset, TBILL's monthly transfer volume is $200 on XRPL, $3.09 million on Ethereum, and $3.62 million on Arbitrum. That's roughly 0.003% of TBILL's monthly transfer volume happening on XRPL.
It's a clean example of “issued and held here” versus “moved and used there.” This is an early indicator, not “XRPL wins.” It can signal controlled distribution, custody preferences, or just low on-chain velocity.

XRPL vs. Ethereum layer 2s countercase
XRPL's distribution-first posture shows up in how Aviva and Ripple pitch the ledger: “built-in compliance tools” and near-instant settlement, language that reads like regulated distribution more than DeFi composability.
That framing matters if institutions prioritize operational simplicity and predictable execution over deep liquidity pools.
XRPL already centers on payments, and the natural bundle is stablecoins as the cash leg and treasury tokens as the yield leg.
If institutions prefer “boring rails” first, a venue can win by minimizing moving parts, such as custody, compliance, predictable execution, even if DeFi depth is thinner early on.
However, liquidity gravity is real. Tokenized treasuries become “venues” when they can be swapped against stablecoins and routed through institutional market makers at scale.
Uniswap Labs and Securitize's Feb. 11 integration to make BlackRock's BUIDL tradable on UniswapX is the Ethereum and layer-2 thesis in one announcement.
Ethereum's advantage is that it already has the most mature on-chain liquidity infrastructure, and layer 2s are inheriting that depth while reducing costs.
The collateral loop is the moat. Tokenized treasuries are increasingly discussed as collateral in the broader financial system.
Reuters reported that the Bank of England is exploring broader acceptance of tokenized assets as collateral, and that the European Central Bank is planning around the timing of tokenized collateral.
Ethereum's advantage is that it already has the most mature collateral plumbing, and institutions building settlement and lending flows are defaulting to where the infrastructure already exists.
The fork to name explicitly: Is XRPL choosing “regulated distribution” over “composable finance,” and can that win meaningfully in tokenized treasuries?
If the answer is yes, XRPL becomes a custody and compliance venue where assets sit but don't move much on-chain. If the answer is no, XRPL needs to build liquidity and collateral depth fast, which means competing directly with Ethereum's existing infrastructure.

Hype or shift potential? The 30-to-90-day watchlist
A glimpse of a potential venue shift could emerge over the next 30 to 90 days if XRPL's treasury-token transfer volumes rise materially and chain-level activity starts to match the balances.
TBILL is the stress test. Stablecoin settlement on XRPL continues to scale, with transfer volume growth tracking supply growth, supporting “cash leg plus yield leg” behavior.
A second regulated issuer follows Aviva, or Aviva progresses from “intention” to a live tokenized fund product with measurable holders.
However, it becomes hype if balances are static, holder counts remain small, and activity remains elsewhere. For example, if TBILL moves on Ethereum and layer 2s while remaining on XRPL.
The watchlist is printable: TBILL chain transfer share, XRPL stablecoin 30-day transfer volume, XRPL “distributed asset value” trend, and any Aviva follow-through disclosures.
Right now, the signals are mixed. XRPL has supply skew and stablecoin momentum, but usage is overwhelmingly elsewhere. Aviva is a credible institutional partner, but the commitment is multi-year intent, not a live product.
The next 90 days will show whether XRPL is building a real venue or just hosting another issuance narrative, while the actual settlement and collateral flows occur on Ethereum and layer 2s.
#xrp #Xrp🔥🔥 #TrendingTopic