On February 8, Binance Launch Mining announced the launch of the 46th project, Pixels (PIXEL), a social network game based on the Ronin network. Users can invest BNB and FDUSD into the PIXEL mining pool on the Launchpad website after 08:00 (UTC+8) on February 9 to receive PIXEL rewards. PIXEL can be mined for a total of 10 days.
Odaily Planet Daily will review the recent Binance Launchpool revenue in this article and estimate the PIXEL token price based on lending and exchange data.
Existing Pixels game tokens exchange
According to the Binance Pixels research report, the Pixels project has raised $4.8 million through 3 rounds of private token sales, of which 14% of the PIXEL token supply has been sold at $0.005, $0.009, and $0.012 per token. As of February 8, the maximum supply of PIXEL is 5 billion, and the initial circulation after launch is 771,041,667 (about 15.42% of the maximum supply).
Pixels will gradually phase out the in-game token BERRY, which will be exchanged for PIXEL, with the initial token exchange ratio being 1000 BERRY: 7.6175 PIXEL. Pixels then announced that the exchange rate will be reduced by 10% on February 13.
Coingecko data shows that the current price of BERRY is 0.00265 USDT. Based on the above exchange ratio, the price of PIXEL is 0.385 USDT.
Launchpool Data Review
The following figure is a review of Launchpool data from Memecoin (MEME) to the most recent Altlayer (ALT), which only considers the income of the BNB pool. The BNB price in the yield is calculated based on the closing price of BNB before mining begins (assuming that the BNB price has been fully negotiated before the Launchpool announcement and mining start).
In summary, the average annualized rate of return of Launchpool in the past 7 periods is 130%. If MEME is not included, the annualized rate of return is 148%, which is higher than the USDT financial management of various protocols and exchanges to a certain extent.
Assuming that the annualized rate of return of PIXEL is also 130%, and PIXEL mining lasts for ten days, the absolute rate of return of this Launchpool after conversion on a daily basis is 130% / 365 × 10 = 3.56%.
To achieve a yield of 3.56%, the price of PIXEL needs to reach 16, 041, 115 × 319.2 × 3.56% / 280, 000, 000 = 0.65 USDT.
Prediction based on loan data
Assume that the annualized rate of return of PIXEL should be "BNB lending rate + risk-free rate of return", where the BNB lending rate comes from various lending agreements and exchanges, and the risk-free rate of return is the USDT lending rate of the exchange.
This section selects the BNB lending rates of Venus, Kinza, Radiant, and Binance Lending, with an average of 93%. Details are shown in the figure below.
Binance USDT investment rate is about 12%, OKX is about 38%, and the average is 25%. Then the annualized rate of return of PIXEL is 118%. According to the algorithm in the previous section, the corresponding currency price is 0.591 USDT. The guaranteed currency price excluding the risk-free rate of return is 0.466 USDT.
in conclusion
In summary, to maintain the average Launchpool yield or make borrowers profitable, the PIXEL price needs to reach about 0.6 USDT. If calculated according to current market expectations and the guaranteed price, the bottom line price is about 0.4 USDT~0.45 USDT.
