This article is for Initial + Vesting + Cliff, analyzing the numerical information of that coin in pre-sales.
I have previously said that Vega and Human were sold very expensively compared to the supply in the CoinList pre-sales and that they would not make a profit. And so it was.
Price According to Supply
When pre-selling a project, the price is really important in terms of how many x the project will make. For example, if the coin supply is 2 billion but the price is 0.05, 0.5 will come easily. Even if its supply is 100 million, it can easily reach 0.05. People look at the cheapness of the price without looking at the supply.
Therefore, if we are focusing on profit rather than supply, we should pay more attention to price. The coin supply is 10 million, but they sell it for 10 dollars because the supply is low. The coin can only be doubled and become 20 dollars. As you can see, they are not valued relative to supply in the short term. Price is the reference point for us.
Initial Cap
▪️️We do not value a coin just because its supply is high or low. This, of course, varies depending on the quality of the project, but in order to make a high x when it is first listed in the short term, the price and the initial value in circulation, which we call the initial cap, are very important, rather than the project itself.
For example👉
Why did Casperlabs make so much money? Because although there is a lot of supply, the price is determined around 0.015–0.03. Human had a 10x lower supply, but its price was 0.50, or 33x higher. Even if the 2 projects were equal in quality (Casper was better), human was more expensive.
After analyzing the price and supply of coins, you need to look at the amount of circulation. You may have seen 200x 500x coins at one time or another. These are astroswap etc. or KSM Startar is around 20x with 200k initial. Initial Cap, the first value they are listed in, must be low.
Supply Demand Effect
A low initial value reduces sales pressure. For example, the coin has 1 billion units, but when it is first listed there will only be 100 thousand units in circulation. The price is skyrocketing because it is really very scarce. Because there is little coin in circulation and high demand. There are more buyers than sellers.
For this reason, projects with low initial cap provide crazy profits. In other words, when making your choice or project earnings estimate, consider the price according to the coin supply + circulation supply etc. Pay attention to factors such as.
Seed ve Private
Additionally, be sure to look at the prices of the project's seed and private sales. How much did the team sell it to us in pre-sale, and how much did they sell it to themselves? Let me give an example of this via Vega Protocol.
Vega, which was sold to us for $15 in the 3rd option, was purchased by seed investors for $0.36. Isn't it really illogical? Yes, seeds should be cheaper, but not this much. They bought it from us for around 42x cheaper. Even if Vega doubles the price we bought to $30, we earn 2x and the others earn 84x.
Therefore, it was unreasonable to expect early gains from Vega. They had created a system just to enrich the early investors and themselves, and to knowingly exploit the demand on the coinlist exchange. You definitely need to look at the seed and private prices of the coins you will enter.
Vesting ve Cliff
Let's talk about another incident, Vesting and Cliff. What we call vesting can be defined as the terms in which those who invest in the project at the early stage will or will not receive the coins.
For example👉
If it says 10% at TGE, 10% Monthly Vesting, those who buy this coin at the early stage will receive 10% of their coins on the day the coin is listed. The remaining 90% means they will receive 10% per month. Cliff is a cliff, meaning not taking anything at all. Let's give this as an example👉
If it says 6-month lock up, we call it the Cliff part. After the coin is listed, no investor can buy the coin for the first 6 months. Then he starts taking it according to the vesting process. For this reason, you should definitely look at the vesting table of the coins. It will be very useful.
Many traders are interested in the vesting times of these coins. For example, if 10% of the coins are due on the 28th of the month, people holding that coin can increase the quantity by selling before the 28th and buying again at a lower price on the 28th. This will give you additional basic information about trading.