THE BULLS AREN’T DONE YET
Three weeks ago, most people were talking about lower lows.
Today, Bitcoin just gave us its highest weekly close in five weeks.
That’s why I’ve learned not to get too emotional in this market. Bitcoin has a habit of making both bulls and bears look silly when they become too confident.
What I like most about this week’s close isn’t the number itself it’s where we closed. Bitcoin has now held above its 200-week Moving Average for three consecutive weeks, one of the most important levels in Bitcoin’s entire history. We’ve lost this level before during extreme fear, but reclaiming and defending it has historically been a sign that the market is slowly rebuilding its strength.
What’s even more interesting is that Bitcoin is showing relative strength while traditional markets aren’t making life easy for risk assets. The Nasdaq 100 has struggled recently, yet Bitcoin continues defending key support levels. That’s not something I ignore.
Technically, I’m becoming more constructive on Bitcoin.
The weekly MACD has turned bullish, momentum is improving, and the bullish RSI divergence remains valid. Stochastic RSI is also beginning to push higher, suggesting buyers are slowly regaining control. None of these indicators guarantee higher prices, but when multiple momentum indicators start aligning at the same time, I pay attention.
There’s another signal that I don’t think enough people are talking about.
The bullish engulfing candle we printed three weeks ago is still holding. We’ve only seen this exact setup appear a handful of times during this cycle, and each occurrence was followed by a significant rally. History doesn’t have to repeat itself, but I’d rather respect historical probabilities than ignore them completely.
Fundamentally, things are slowly improving too.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded another week of net inflows after a difficult period of outflows. Institutional demand isn’t exploding higher yet, but it hasn’t disappeared either. The smartest thing I’ve learned about Bitcoin cycles is that they usually don’t reverse overnight. First comes stabilization, then accumulation, and finally expansion. We’re somewhere between the first two stages right now.
For me, the chart is relatively simple.
$58K remains the most important support level. As long as Bitcoin continues defending that area, I think the bullish case remains intact. Above us, I’m watching $67K very closely. That’s where I expect the market to face its next real test. If buyers can reclaim that level, I think the path toward $83K becomes increasingly realistic.
The bearish scenario hasn’t disappeared though.
If Bitcoin closes below $58K on the weekly timeframe, I won’t pretend nothing has changed. That’s when I start paying much closer attention to the $49K support zone. Markets don’t move in straight lines, and managing risk has always been more important to me than predicting tops and bottoms.
The market is still looking for confirmation. Bitcoin might have already started giving it to us.
The next few weekly closes will tell the rest of the deck.
#BTC走势分析 #BTC