Could Chinese New Year bring increased volatility for Bitcoin?
Over the last seven days, Bitcoin has predominantly consolidated between $42,000 and $43,400. The price movement has been so tight that it has sparked speculation that it could be the "calm before the storm." Some have suggested Chinese New Year Week as a possible harbinger of price fluctuations as they try to find potential catalysts for increased volatility.
China’s Lunar New Year falls on a different date every year, and this event marks the beginning of a week-long national holiday in China, also known as “Golden Week.” For whatever reason, this period is typically accompanied by higher volatility and lower volume in the crypto market. In 2024, the Golden Week will take place from February 10 to February 17."
"Before 2021, Bitcoin typically experienced a price decrease shortly before the holiday. However, after 2021, the tides seemed to turn, as the price of Bitcoin has since predominantly shown a slight increase while approaching the event."
"After China's New Year Week, Bitcoin typically moves downward. Sometimes the crash wipes out all the gains obtained during Golden Week (i.e. 2021, 2022, and 2023)."
It is debatable whether Chinese New Year Week will still have a significant impact on Bitcoin markets.
some of the Golden Week’s patterns have arguably started to show themselves. On February 7, or three days before the Chinese New Year, Bitcoin saw a 4% price increase, which helped the asset move out of its narrow range.
Bitcoin hit $48,000 recently fueled by a strong historic track record around the Chinese New Year, and it could hit $52,000 by mid-March with the bull run peaking in 2025.
