Amid the sharp decline, the volume of forced liquidations on the futures market reached $2.02 billion over 24 hours, of which $1.68 billion came from long positions, according to data from Coinglass.
What’s weighing on the market
Fed rate hike. The market estimates the probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise its key interest rate by the end of the year at around 90%. Higher rates make loans more expensive and reduce the amount of available liquidity in the economy. In such conditions, investors traditionally move out of volatile and risky assets, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, in favor of more reliable instruments with guaranteed returns, such as U.S. government bonds.
Capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Since October 30, investors have withdrawn $2.75 billion from U.S. Bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds. There was a positive inflow in just one of the 11 trading sessions. This is a clear signal that institutional demand is cooling: large funds are taking profits or reducing risk, while ETF issuers are forced to sell actual bitcoins on the spot market to cover redemptions.
High-profile IPOs. Some investors may be pulling funds out of crypto assets to participate in the Anthropic IPO, scheduled for November 19. A similar situation occurred when SpaceX went public.
Nvidia controversy. Jensen Huang was removed as Nvidia CEO. On Tuesday, the company will publish its first quarterly report without him. Investors fear that the company will lose momentum without him, and that a weak report could trigger a crash in the Nasdaq technology index, with Bitcoin following suit.
What to expect next
The technical picture points to a risk of further declines. The nearest liquidation zone is at $62,300. If the price falls below this level, exchanges will forcibly close another approximately $430 million in long positions, adding to downward pressure on the price. The next support zone is at $61,150, and below that, trading volumes and buy orders drop sharply all the way to the summer low of around $57,800.
On Polymarket, the probability of $BTC falling to $60,000 by the end of November is estimated at 67.5%.
On Twitter and Telegram channels, investors are already calling the upcoming session “the worst day of 2026.” They fear that, amid an 8% crash in its own stock market, Japan will begin selling U.S. Treasury bonds to support its national currency. Meanwhile, China is reducing its share of U.S. government debt while increasing its gold reserves. Amid doubts about the sustainability of the AI rally, this is adding to turbulence in dollar-denominated assets.
However, Strive CEO Matt Cole is optimistic and expects Bitcoin to return above $90,000 by the end of February. He noted that the exact same thing happened during the SpaceX IPO.