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Traders on Binance are selling $BTC more actively than at any time in the past 12 months. For investors, this is a double-edged signal: selling pressure threatens to prolong the correction, but such extreme pessimism often emerges closer to the end of a downturn.
Bitcoin's correction has accelerated sharply in recent days. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who uses a pseudonym, believes it could give investors a good buying opportunity ahead of the next rebound.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost believes Bitcoin’s undervaluation has reached a historically rare level. The price has been this low relative to its multi-year trend only 3.4% of the time. According to him, these moments have always proved advantageous for long-term investors, but the short-term risk of further declines remains.

On Friday, $BTC fell below $70,000, extending its recent decline as investor sentiment worsened amid institutional outflows, shrinking liquidity, and broader macroeconomic pressures.

The decline coincided with a sharp deterioration in market sentiment. On Friday, the crypto market Fear and Greed Index fell to 20 points—its lowest reading in more than four months, corresponding to the “extreme fear” zone. The last time the index reached this level was July 8.

On November 12, the leading cryptocurrency continued to decline, falling to $71,300 — its lowest level since August. The market also came under pressure from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s resignation, Strategy’s removal from MSCI indexes, outflows from spot ETFs, and expectations of further rate hikes in the US.

$BTC 70 days ago, it rose above all the key moving averages. Previously, after this happened, the coin stayed above them for at least two years. It has never fallen below them this quickly before.

A crypto analyst using the pseudonym Sykodelic drew attention to the pattern. A trader using the pseudonym XO, meanwhile, urged caution. In his view, the market still looks weak.

$BTC sounded an alarm. Its weekly candle closed below the 50-week moving average for the first time in two months—the price fell below its average over the past year.

Traders consider this level the dividing line between a healthy market and a prolonged downturn. Some analysts warned of a drop to $60,000, while others urged people not to panic.

Why Bitcoin is struggling to rise

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, around $707 billion invested in $BTC is currently at a loss, while only $380 billion is in profit. The metric is updated once a day and reflects the average volume of funds in actual $BTC coins, excluding futures, broken down into profitable and loss-making positions.

$BTC returned above $81,000 after Wall Street trading opened on Thursday: U.S. GDP figures remained strong, while inflation data came in line with estimates.
At its latest meeting on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75–4%, also in line with market expectations. In a subsequent statement, Chair Kevin Warsh said that economic activity was “expanding at a solid pace” and inflation remained “elevated.”

$BTC demonstrated a sharp rise at the beginning of the week. As a result of this momentum, the cryptocurrency nearly reached the $64,000 mark, recording a local high at $63,900, according to CoinGecko. The upward move continued a confident rally into the weekend. The jump in the price triggered forced closures of short positions worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

Selling pressure has intensified noticeably, and the price $BTC quickly fell below the psychologically important $70,000 level. Moreover, the daily MA200 has now been breached, indicating that negative market momentum persists. Judging by the current situation, the long-term accumulation phase is still far from over 📉

The military operation of the USA and Israel against Iran will positively affect the quotes $BTC . This opinion was shared by analysts from the London Crypto Club.
The conflict in the Middle East, resulting in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, may become a catalyst for the rise of Bitcoin. Experts David Brickell and Chris Mills referred to the incident as a "narrative catalyst" that the market has long awaited.

Experts noted the first signs of improvement in the network state $BTC against the backdrop of a gradual stabilization of market conditions. At the same time, it is premature to talk about a full recovery of the market.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing growth and has already risen above recent lows. However, the price movement currently lacks the momentum needed for a sustainable reversal. Activity on spot exchanges remains moderate, indicating a cautious stance from most market participants,” the report states.

Over the past weekend, the price $BTC fluctuated from $63,000 to $66,000. Analysts noted the high resilience of the segment: the round-the-clock nature of trading allowed investors to quickly manage risks while traditional platforms were closed.
Dominic John from Kronos Research emphasized that cryptocurrencies quickly regained positions after local downturns. Chief analyst at CoinEx, Jeff Ko, added: Bitcoin held around $66,000 even amidst stock sell-offs in Asia. In his opinion, the market perceived the price spike as a temporary phenomenon rather than a signal of a prolonged decline.

Three models
On the six-month horizon, when searching for the bottom in the cryptocurrency market, one can rely on three models. These are historical data from previous cycles and comparisons with gold.
The first model is based on the pattern from 2019, which is closest to the current macroeconomic situation. Back then, the market grew from about $3,000 to $13,000, after which it entered a prolonged correction to $6,500. All this occurred against the backdrop of a rising stock market and the pause in the reduction of the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) — just like now. If we extrapolate that pattern onto the current cycle, the market is already close to its minimum values — in the range of $67,000–73,000.

The total open interest in derivatives based on digital gold has dropped to its lowest level since late 2022. This was indicated by the CryptoQuant analyst under the nickname Arab Chain.
«The current dynamics clearly reflect a decline in risk appetite and a massive outflow of liquidity from futures markets on the largest exchanges», commented the expert.

The price $BTC approached a local bottom. This was stated by CEO of the investment company VanEck, Jan van Eck, in an interview with CNBC.
According to him, the four-year halving cycle continues to drive quotes, rather than fundamental factors. Van Eck expects a gradual increase in digital gold this year.

$BTC completed the first 'red' October in seven years: the month closed below the mark of $114,000, showing a decline of about 3%. A series of six consecutive 'green' Octobers has been interrupted, and now investors are trying to understand why the market is not growing, even though the external macro conditions look favorable.

The largest outflow was recorded on March 4: in one day, users withdrew 31,900 $BTC from cryptocurrency exchanges, which is equivalent to approximately $2.26 billion. At the same time, about 25,000 BTC were withdrawn from the Bitfinex exchange, where the largest fund outflow since last June was recorded, noted CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler.

The shift in sentiment among wallet holders, where 10 $BTC to 10,000 $BTC experts explained as a bullish signal pointing to a potential increase in cryptocurrency prices in the near future. Analysts have called the current situation a "positive reversal." According to Santiment, wallets with a balance of 10 to 10,000 bitcoins currently account for 68.17% of the total supply of the asset, while a week ago this figure was 68.07%.

According to the businessman, the current price range for $BTC is hardly considered the bottom of the market, which means that the quotes for the first cryptocurrency may continue to decline:
“A situation is forming now where a short-term rise creates the illusion of the beginning of a sustainable upward trend. Such dynamics may persist until the end of April.”