Don't rush to catch the bottom! Bitcoin may not have completed its correction yet.
Previously, BTCVN4 predicted that BTC could correct to the $69,000–$70,000 range before entering a new growth cycle. However, the actual market action has been more negative, with Bitcoin breaking below this support zone and continuing to fall to around $66,000.
This forces us to update our market scenario.
In my personal view, $63,000 is becoming a notable correction target if the current selling pressure persists.
1. THE TECHNICAL STRUCTURE IS VERY BEARISH
On the 4H chart, BTC is below all the key EMAs:
EMA20: $69,968
EMA50: $72,692
EMA100: $75,069
EMA200: $77,387
The EMAs are aligned in bearish order, indicating that sellers still control the short-term trend.
In particular, the $69,000–$70,000 area was previously an important support zone, but has now become a potential resistance zone.
If BTC cannot reclaim this area, any rebounds may be merely technical recoveries within a downtrend.
2. LARGE CAPITAL FLOWS ARE SENDING A WARNING SIGNAL
Notably, large orders recorded net selling of around 1,487 BTC in just 24 hours.
Over five days, net flows from large orders were also negative by around 716 BTC.
This shows that selling pressure is not coming only from retail investors. Supply from large orders is also exceeding the corresponding demand.
If this situation continues, it will be very difficult for BTC to stage a sustainable recovery.
3. WHY IS BTCVN4 WATCHING THE $63,000 AREA?
BTC has fallen sharply to around $66,000, and the RSI indicators on the 4H chart are in oversold territory:
RSI(6): 20.21.
RSI(12): 21.33.
RSI(24): 25.93.
This shows that the market is under significant selling pressure, and a technical rebound could occur at any time.
However, being oversold does not mean a bottom has formed.
If the $66,456 level is breached, selling pressure could push BTC down to lower levels.
BTCVN4 is watching these levels:
$66,000–$66,500: Nearby support.
$65,000: A psychological level to watch.
$63,000–$64,000: A notable area for a deeper correction.
In particular, if BTC approaches $63,000, I want to see whether selling pressure weakens, large capital flows return to buying, and the price forms a bullish divergence.
4. A CORRECTION DOES NOT MEAN THE BULL CYCLE IS OVER
BTCVN4 wants to emphasize one thing: the possibility of BTC falling to $63,000 does not mean the crypto market's long-term growth prospects are over.
Sometimes, the market needs a sufficiently deep correction to:
Flush out excessively leveraged positions.
Clean up short-term speculative activity.
Rebalance supply and demand.
Allow long-term capital to accumulate again.
If BTC finds a solid support area, selling flows weaken, and technical indicators gradually improve, the market may enter an accumulation phase before establishing a new trend.
However, we need to clearly distinguish between a technical rebound and the start of a new growth cycle.
5. WHAT SHOULD YOU DO RIGHT NOW?
According to BTCVN4, this is not yet the right time to use leverage or commit all your capital to trying to catch the bottom.
Some principles to prioritize:
Maintain liquidity so you can respond to unexpected volatility.
Don't chase unconfirmed rebounds.
Watch large capital flows rather than focusing only on price.
Split your capital into several portions if you have a long-term accumulation plan (DCA). I've said many times that this is a reasonable DCA zone$INJ
Be especially cautious with altcoins, as they are usually more volatile than BTC.
BTCVN4's current view is that Bitcoin remains at risk of further correcting toward the $63,000–$64,000 area before the market finds balance and determines its next direction.
BTCVN4 is not rushing to conclude that this is a long-term bear market, but we also don't want to underestimate the negative signals emerging.
What BTCVN4 is waiting for is not simply for BTC to reach a lower price, but for the moment when selling pressure genuinely weakens and large capital flows begin to return.
Big opportunities often emerge when market sentiment is at its most pessimistic, but not every steep price drop marks a bottom.
💬 Do you think BTC will continue correcting toward $63,000, or is the $66,000 area enough to form a bottom?
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