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“Macro sparks the move. Leverage magnifies the risk.”
Bitcoin reacted sharply after the latest U.S. CPI print came in at 2.4%, slightly above expectations. Risk sentiment improved immediately, and BTC futures activity surged.
But beneath the surface, the data suggests this move may not be simple bullish momentum.
Post-CPI Derivatives Surge
Following the CPI release:
Net Taker Volume spiked above $265M (hourly)Open Interest increased significantlyAggressive long positioning entered the marketThis tells us one thing clearly:Traders rushed into leveraged long positions expecting continuation.
When Open Interest rises alongside aggressive taker volume, it means new leveraged capital is entering, not just positions being closed.
That increases liquidation risk if momentum fades.
On-Chain Reality: Short-Term Stress
While derivatives show optimism, on-chain data paints a more fragile picture.
STH-LTH MVRV dropped to 0.72
This means short-term holders are holding average unrealized losses of ~44%.
Historically, levels below 1.0 signal:
Stress among recent buyers Emotional decision-making Higher probability of volatility spikes
At the same time:
Short-Term Holder Realized Cap: ~ -$57B
Long-Term Holder Realized Cap: ~ +$35B
Translation:
Short-term participants are realizing losses.
Long-term holders remain resilient.
This divergence creates instability.
⚠️ Why Volatility Is Likely Ahead
We now have:
• Aggressive leveraged longs entering
• Short-term holders under pressure
• Long-term holders absorbing
• Macro-driven optimism
This combination often leads to:
Either
1️⃣ A short squeeze continuation
or
2️⃣ A leverage flush if price stalls
Markets become unstable when: Optimism is leverage-driven
But on-chain stress remains elevated
What This Market Phase Represents
This is not clean accumulation. This is leverage rebuilding while short-term holders are weak. When futures heat up faster than spot demand strengthens, volatility expands.
What To Watch
• Open Interest sustainability
• Net Taker Volume consistency
• STH-LTH MVRV recovery above 1.0
• Long-term holder supply behavior
If leverage builds without spot absorption, risk increases.
If spot demand absorbs leverage, expansion continues.
Conclusion
CPI sparked optimism. Derivatives amplified the reaction. On-chain data, however, signals underlying fragility. Bitcoin is entering a high-volatility decision zone. Leverage is rebuilding. Short-term holders remain under pressure. Long-term holders are absorbing. This is not a confirmed breakout. It is a tension phase. The next move will depend on whether spot demand can absorb leveraged positioning.
Volatility is not a possibility here — It is a probability.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk responsibly.
#CPIWatch #MarketRebound #USNFPBlowout #BinanceSquareTalks
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When I first started, I believed tools would make me profitable. I kept searching for better indicators, better setups. But later I realised something important — tools don't create profit. They help you observe behaviour.
Market moves because of psychology — fear, greed, impatience, and confidence. Tools only help identify where those emotions exist. They don't control the market. They help you see it clearer.
Over time, I stopped using tools for prediction. I started using them to observe positioning and behaviour. That shift changed everything.
Here is exactly how I personally use each tool.
TradingView — My Primary Workspace
TradingView is my main workspace, but not because of default indicators.

I mainly use my own custom indicator built using Pine Script. This helps me track behaviour using my own logic instead of relying on public indicators.
I also use TradingView for surface-level identification, such as:
— chart patterns
— liquidity candles
— structure shifts
— key reaction zones
This helps me understand where traders reacted before and where emotional decisions happened.
Indicators don't predict the market. They help organise observation.
CryptoQuant — My Macro and Liquidity Intelligence Tool
CryptoQuant is one of the most complete tools for understanding market environment.
I use it to monitor deeper conditions like:
— exchange inflow and outflow
— liquidity conditions
— SSR (Stablecoin Supply Ratio)
— gold vs BTC comparison
— dollar strength and yield related macro charts
— exchange reserve behaviour
This helps me understand whether the environment supports accumulation or distribution.
Sometimes market moves because of liquidity pressure, not technical patterns. CryptoQuant helps reveal that hidden pressure.
This builds context behind price movement.
Coinglass — My Main Liquidity Map Tool
I mainly use Coinglass for liquidation heatmaps and liquidity maps.
This shows where traders are most exposed and vulnarable.
These zones represent emotional positioning — late entries, overconfidence, and crowded trades.
Market often moves into these zones because emotional traders create weak areas.
I also use it for:
— liquidity maps
— overall positioning imbalance
— HyperLiquid whale tracking
This helps me avoid entering where everyone else already entered emotionally.
Coinglass HyperLiquid Whale Tracker — My Whale Hunting Tool
This tool allows me to track real whale positions directly.

It shows:
— whale entry levels
— position size
— long and short exposure
— profit and loss behaviour
This helps me observe how confident traders position themselves.
Not to copy them, but to understand their patience and confidence.
HyperLiquid Leaderboard — Understanding Risk Appetite of Top Whales
This leaderboard shows top perpetual traders and their performance.

I use this to observe what top risky whales are doing.
It reveals:
— how they size positions
— when they stay inactive
— when they take aggressive exposure
One important thing I learned — top whales wait more than they trade.
They don't react emotionally. They position with intention.
This teaches patience more than any indicator.
Arkham Intelligence and Whale Alert — Observing Real Money Movement
Arkham and Whale Alert help track large on-chain fund movements.
This shows preparation phase.
When whales move funds, they are positioning. Not reacting.

Retail traders react after moves start. Whales prepare before moves start.
This difference becomes visible when you observe long enough.
Dexscreener and Dextools — I Use This Less, Mostly During Bullish Conditions
I use Dexscreener and Dextools less compared to other tools.
Mainly during bullish phases.
This helps identify behaviour of mid-range dolphins and smaller whales.
It shows:
— early volume growth
— early liquidity formation
— early attention zones
This helps observe early participants before retail crowd enters.
But behaviour still matters more than activity.
The Most Important Thing I Learned
Tools don't make traders profitable.
They help you observe fear.
They help you observe greed.
They help you observe positioning.
CryptoQuant helps me understand macro pressure.
Coinglass shows emotional liquidity zones.
HyperLiquid tools show confident whale behaviour.
TradingView helps me observe structure using my own logic.
But tools only assist observation.
Your psychology, patience, and discipline decide the outcome.
Once you stop chasing moves and start observing behaviour, the market becomes much clearer.
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