Data: When the chip index has gained more than 50% over 12 months, the median return over the next 12 months has been down 8.5%.
→ Since 1995, the index has crossed that threshold in 67 months, and only 42% were higher a year later
→ When the index was down over 12 months, the median was +26.8%, with 73% ending higher
→ Today the 12-month return is +50%, and the index is down 26% from its June high
I think the real risk in chips isn't the news; it's the high base itself.
Worst case: if Nvidia's leadership crisis spreads to the whole basket, we could see a repeat of the 20%+ drops seen in 30% of these cases; I'm watching.
#Stocks #Semiconductors #AI
Watching: $SMH $NVDA
→ Since 1995, the index has crossed that threshold in 67 months, and only 42% were higher a year later
→ When the index was down over 12 months, the median was +26.8%, with 73% ending higher
→ Today the 12-month return is +50%, and the index is down 26% from its June high
I think the real risk in chips isn't the news; it's the high base itself.
Worst case: if Nvidia's leadership crisis spreads to the whole basket, we could see a repeat of the 20%+ drops seen in 30% of these cases; I'm watching.
#Stocks #Semiconductors #AI
Watching: $SMH $NVDA
